GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

The programs prioritized by the current government have performed poorly according to multiple evaluations, including those of the public agency Coneval and the most recent INDEP tool for evaluating the effectiveness of social-development-related public programs that has been produced for several...

Can the number of demonstrations increase and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Dec 2022

The Senate begins the analysis of the Transition PEC. The PL caucus will decide who will run for the Senate presidency in February. The most likely candidate is former Minister Rogério Marinho. The Copom holds its final meeting of the year to decide on the basic interest rate (Selic). In the Judi...

Explosions at Russian air bases

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Dec 2022

On December 5 there were explosions at 2 Russian air bases hundreds of km from the Ukrainian Border. At least 3 people have been killed and it was claimed that 2 nuclear capable bombers were damaged. The Defense Ministry has neither confirmed nor denied the report. The Astra Telegram news channel...

Fuel shortage has become serious, subsidised fuel prices will likely have to go

HUNGARY · In Brief · 05 Dec 2022

By last night, about a quarter of domestic petrol stations has run out of petrol and diesel, and the situation is threatening to get even worse. We have had this coming for a while. MOL, currently the only wholesaler of fuel in Hungary, has been saying for several months that its capacities are o...

Inflation peaks, where to now?

TURKEY · Report · 05 Dec 2022

Consumer prices increased by 2.9%, m/m, in November, broadly in line with forecasts (consensus as well as ours), with the 12-month rate thus easing -- for the first time since May 2021 -- to 84.4%, from 85.5% in October. The PPI inflation recorded its lowest monthly reading in 29 months, rising b...

Russia Nobel Prize winner says Ukraine War cannot end by talks

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Dec 2022

The laureates said at an awards ceremony in Germany that the war could not end through diplomacy whilst Putin is in office. Irina Scherbakova was the co-founder of the Russian human rights organization Memorial. But after Putin is gone there will be a negotiated peace she said but that requires U...

GULF WEEKLY: Oman upgraded + Bahrain positive outlook, Abu Dhabi GDP, PIF $17bn loan, Qatar-Germany LNG deal

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 02 Dec 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC+ is widely expected to maintain quota levels next week, although a cut is possible. * Inflation has eased to 4.0% in the GCC, the lowest since May, with rent replacing food as the main driver. * PIF secured a $17bn 7...

The deadline for the Transition PEC should be one or two years at the most and the value will not exceed R$ 130 billion, the STF approved the Lifetime Review yesterday, and the Transition PEC is expected to be approved in the Senate next week

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Dec 2022

President Lula's presence in Brasilia helped guide the political agreement around the Transition Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC). He is expected to speak to the press today around 11:30 a.m. In addition to the PEC, he will likely be asked about the ministerial team. Yesterday, by 6 votes ...

South Africa's Risk Heightened While Ramaphosa Considers his Future

SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 02 Dec 2022

President Ramaphosa finds himself in a crisis riddled with complexity. He has few options, but none is exciting or under his total control. When a few months back, Arthur Fraser, South Africa’s x-spy master, leaked the theft of US dollars from Ramaphosa’s Phala Phala Farm, the President dismissed...

The 2023 NFPS budget and third quarter fiscal data hide revenues and expenditures. The economy continues to accelerate.

PANAMA · Report · 01 Dec 2022

The overall government budget for next year is US 27.6 billion. Because of the state accounting system in Panama, this figure includes US 3.2 billion for state-owned banks (which are independently managed and not subject in practical terms to budget restrictions), as well as US 3.5 billion in int...

Russia: a brief market watch

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 01 Dec 2022

The FX market remains more or less stable in anticipation of an embargo on Russian oil and the price cap. It is worth mentioning that trading activity in traditional currencies is declining in Russia as these assets are considered toxic by a growing number of local market participants. The full-s...

A trot not a gallop

PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 01 Dec 2022

The strong external headwinds buffeting the country mean that its chances of galloping away from the pandemic have disappeared. It can nevertheless count itself lucky to have remittances and business process outsourcing supporting consumption. These two dollar earners have proven themselves relat...

The Argentine economy is becoming increasingly distorted

ARGENTINA · Report · 01 Dec 2022

The government's handling of the exchange rate is leading to increasing distortions in the economy, affecting both exports and imports. In terms of exports, the production of goods is becoming increasingly discouraged by the taxes imposed on it and by the arbitrary restrictions on imports of int...

Lula is negotiating the Transition PEC with several parties, amendments to the PEC have already been submitted, and the STF continues to discuss the Lifetime Review case

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Dec 2022

After a meeting with Senate President Rodrigo Pacheco, the PSD caucus said it would defend a two-year proposal. The PP also decided to support the PEC. The probability is for the PEC to be approved. Lula also met with several members of the transition team. This Thursday, the STF will continue to...

Essential CIS Politics: December 2022

CIS POLITICS · Report · 01 Dec 2022 · 1 response

* Russia has become more diplomatically isolated but has drawn close to Iran. Russia and Iran's relationship is deepening. On November 5 Iran said it sold military drones to Russia but claims that was only before the Russia-Ukraine War began. Western countries have imposed additional sanction...