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GULF WEEKLY: UAE bond, MBS visits Turkey, Bahrain’s Q1 GDP, Kuwait plans new elections
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 24 Jun 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The EU foreign policy chief is visiting Iran to try and revive the nuclear talks. * The UK and GCC have launched negotiations on a free trade agreement. * The IMF completed an Article IV mission to Saudi Arabia with a pos...

Webinar Replay: Colombia - After the elections
COLOMBIA · Report · 24 Jun 2022

Get insight into the results of Colombia's presidential elections and what to expect from the Gustavo Petro administration. Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring Juan Carlos Echeverry and Andres Escobar discussing the election results and their ramifications on Col...

Former President Lula continues in the lead, the Petrobras Eligibility Committee is expected to review the presidential appointment today, and a CPI request should be submitted to investigate alleged corruption in the Education Ministry
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Jun 2022

According to the latest poll, former President Lula is in the lead with 47% of intended votes, and President Jair Bolsonaro has 28%. The distance between the two, therefore, is 19%. So far, no new polls on the presidential election have been registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE). Tod...

Recovering from Omicron
CHINA · Report · 24 Jun 2022

The pandemic situation in China came gradually under control in May, particularly in Shanghai. This has greatly helped economic recovery. Industrial output grew 0.7% y/y in May, up 3.6 pps from April. Manufacturing rose 0.1% y/y, up 4.7 pps from April, and has been the major force lifting aggrega...

Ukraine withdrawing from Severodonetsk
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Jun 2022

On June 24 Kyiv announced that its soldiers shall pull out of Severodonetsk. The casualties from Russian bombardment are just too heavy. The city has been under assault for 5 weeks. When the Ukrainian retreat is complete the Russians will still have trouble advancing. The Russians still need to c...

EU grants Moldova and Ukraine candidate status
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Jun 2022

On June 23 the European Union made the announcement. The two former Soviet states are elated. However, candidate status is a long way from EU membership. It could easily take 10 years for them to be admitted into the EU. And it might never happen. The EU stated that the countries have significant...

Russia wants to enhance BRICS' relations
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Jun 2022

On June 22 Putin said that Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa should draw closer. He was addressing a BRICS business forum by videolink.  Russia needs to deepen its relations with the other BRICS nations because Russia's relations with EU, NATO and other pro-Western nations are so poor...

Kazakhstan: Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 23 Jun 2022

June 10 EBRD: Kazakhstan's Baiterek is discussing the purchase of the Russian Sberbank subsidiary in the country, the EBRD is ready to provide financing Alstom: The French company Alstom plans to invest more than EUR 50 mln in new projects in Kazakhstan June 13 Ex-president Nursultan Nazarbayev: ...

Testing the new governor?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 23 Jun 2022

We had barely made an end-year P55/$ call late last week[1] when the exchange rate shot past P54/$ early this week and closed at P54.7/$ in today's trading. From where we sit, it looks like the selldown of the peso is the market’s way of welcoming the incoming BSP governor, Felipe Medalla, after ...

Pacheco discusses the PEC on Fuels in the Senate, the arrest of former Minister of Education Milton Ribeiro reflects poorly on Bolsonaro, and two more presidential polls will be published today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Jun 2022

The PEC on Fuels provides for reimbursements from the federal government to states that reduce their Tax on the Circulation of Goods and Services (ICMS) rate below 17%. According to the PEC, the total amount of reimbursements is up to R$ 29.6 billion. The arrest of former Minister of Education Mi...

CBRT meeting: nothing to say, really...
TURKEY · In Brief · 23 Jun 2022

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) kept its policy rate at 14% (simple), in line with expectations. The statement has little new, other than stating that growth likely remained positive in Q2 (which is also what we see), and that the Bank could do more macro-prudential measures if need be (unsur...

Russian oil refinery attacked by Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Jun 2022

On June 22 a refinery 5 km from the Ukrainian Border was hit by a drone. This caused a huge fire but no reported deaths. Russian state media reported the attack, which it said was perpetrated by terrorists. Operations have been suspended pending an investigation at the refinery. It took 90 minute...

Fiscal adjustment is finally moving forward
HUNGARY · Report · 22 Jun 2022

Following nearly two months of apparent inaction, the government came forward with an almost complete fiscal adjustment plan in late May. This must have been prepared behind the scenes while PM Orbán was publicly preoccupied with setting up his new cabinet. To enforce the plan, the government is ...

The economic team opposes changing the law on SOEs, Bolsonaro is unhappy with how long it is taking Petrobras’s Board to approve company’s new president, and the latest poll shows an increase in Lula’s advantage in the election
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Jun 2022

The economic team believes that a change in the law on state-owned enterprises (SOEs) would not be a good sign for investors and could open a huge legal gap to change other points of the law. Instead, the team supports the adoption of a truck drivers’ voucher and the expansion of the gas voucher....

Kazakhstan tightrope between Russia and the West
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Jun 2022

Kazakhstan is in an invidious position as a CSTO and EAU ally of Russia that does not support Russia's invasion of Ukraine. In January 2022 President Tokayev availed himself of military support from CSTO in the face of massive protests. Tokayev attended the St Petersburg Economic Forum and shared...

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