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The STF decision has a direct impact on the vote on the Transition Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC), which is scheduled for today, December 20. The terms of the PEC are still being negotiated. Even with the decision of Minister Gilmar Mendes to remove the Bolsa Família payment from the spe...

Putin visits Belarus

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Dec 2022

On December 19 Putin was in Minsk and met with Lukashenko. They discussed military cooperation. Belarusian-Russian drills are ongoing. Russian TV showed the drills. Putin said there is no plan to fuse the two countries. This was the first such presidential meeting in Belarus for 3 years. The US s...

Azerbaijan agrees to supply electricity to South-East Europe

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Dec 2022 · 1 response

On December 17 an agreement was signed. An electricity cable will go through Georgia and go under the Black Sea to Romania and on to Hungary. The agreement was signed in Bucharest with the presidents of all four countries present. The 1,200 km cable will take 6 years to build. The three receiving...

Monetary Policy Challenges In 2023: Global and Brazilian Economies

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 19 Dec 2022

By causing a succession of supply shocks, the pandemic raised inflation around the world. Indeed, virtually all countries reacted to the economic effects of the health crisis with huge monetary and fiscal stimulus policies, causing high inflation whose control now requires both a return to fiscal...

Will the Lula government be a broad front and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Dec 2022

This is the final week of activity for the year in the Legislative and Judicial branches. On Monday, the Supreme Federal Court (STF) decides on the constitutionality of the rapporteur's amendments. On Tuesday, the House may vote on the Transition Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC). The Budge...

West accuses North Korea of supplying Russia

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Dec 2022

In November 2022 the US said that North Korea was selling shells to Russia to use in Ukraine. Russia has run down its stock of ammunition and missiles. The UN put an arms embargo on North Korea in 2016. Arms sales would be a breach of this. North Korea and Russia deny any arms trade. North Korea...

The final week of activity for the year in the Judiciary and Congress, the Transition PEC should be put to a vote on Tuesday, and the STF continues to adjudicate the cases that question the constitutionality of the rapporteur’s amendments

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Dec 2022

This will be the final week of activity for the year in the Judiciary and Congress. The president of the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), scheduled the vote on the PEC for Tuesday. Yesterday, Lula had a meeting with Lira to negotiate the vote on the proposal. This Monday, at 10 a.m., the STF resumes t...

Analysts expect no change in MNB interest rates tomorrow

HUNGARY · In Brief · 19 Dec 2022

The Monetary Council is scheduled to hold its last regular rate-setting meeting tomorrow. According to Portfolio.hu's poll, analyst are unanimously betting on no change in interest rates - the 18% O/N depo, the 13% base rate, and the 12.5-25% interest rate corridor. (For sure, the O/N depo rate i...

Core inflation accelerates, with higher service inflation

ISRAEL · Report · 19 Dec 2022

1. November’s inflation print reflects accelerating core inflation, especially in the service sectors. 2. We currently expect a 0.5% rate hike on January 2nd, with inflation accelerating and growth fairly steady. 3. The goods and services accounts reflect a shrinking surplus since the begin...

South Africa's ANC Elects its Top Leadership for the Next Five Years

SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 19 Dec 2022

During a highly contested and tense Elective Congress over the past three days, the ANC elected its top leadership who will lead the Party to the next National Elections of 2024. Most importantly, in a much welcome vote of confidence in Ramapaphosa's reform, President Cyril Ramaphosa was re-elect...

Core inflation accelerates with higher service inflation

ISRAEL · In Brief · 18 Dec 2022

19.12.22 Core inflation accelerates to 5.3% Inflation in November was in line with expectations but the underlying trends remain worrisome. Core inflation accelerated to 5.3% y/y from 5.0% in October, with rental prices (OER) up 5.9% from 5.6%. Other services also accelerated. Housing purchase pr...

Intense Russian bombardment as Putin meets army chiefs

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Dec 2022

On December 17 Russian missiles rained down on Kyiv, Kharkiv, Poltava and other cities. Ukraine says 40 missiles were fired at Kyiv and 37 were shot down. Ukraine is happy about its increasingly sophisticated air defense. Nonetheless it cannot stop all missiles and drones. Russia was attacking en...

Russian diplomat in Africa injured by letter bomb

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Dec 2022

On December 16 a letter bomb in Central African Republic (CAR) wounded the head of the Russian cultural center. The letter addressed to him said, ''It was from all the French: the Russians to get out of Africa.'' The diplomat had already received death threats. The head of the Wagner mercenary gr...

It’s Only the Beginning

VENEZUELA · Report · 16 Dec 2022

After the November 26 signing by Nicolás Maduro government and the delegation of the Unitary Platform their humanitarian agreement, heated rhetoric fills the air. The parties seem not to have the will or sense of urgency needed to move forward in the process. Although talks continue in Caracas...

Kazakhstan macro: The reality may look somewhat better than statistics show

KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 16 Dec 2022

Despite several shocks, as well as elevated and uneven inflation, the Kazakh economy has performed relatively well, having weathered mini-storms associated with scheduled maintenance work on the country’s two main oilfields and problems with the CPC. At a glance, it looks as though in November, t...