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Ukraine War situation
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Jul 2022

Russia is bombarding Sloviansk in east Ukraine. Mostly, Russia is regrouping after taking Lysychansk. Russia appears to have learnt from its mistakes in February and March. Its strategy is now bite and hold. It concentrates overwhelming firepower on one area for as long as it takes to break the e...

Stabilization with tailwinds from oil
VENEZUELA · Report · 12 Jul 2022

Stabilization is advancing, thanks to tailwinds from rising oil revenue that are allowing the central bank to defend the bolivar energetically. Ultimately, it is this strategy of defending the bolivar that is setting the path for exchange rates and inflation both. Cash inflows and a political ...

Just as expected: the base rate and the interest rate corridor rose by 200bps today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 12 Jul 2022

Today's non-rate-setting Monetary Council meeting, which is regularly held once a month, was turned into a rate-setting event, as expected on the basis of hints from the MNB given last week. The base rate went up to 9.75%, the same as the 1-week depo rate, and the interest rate corridor rose to 9...

Politics: One year on, the presidential succession process heats up
MEXICO · Report · 12 Jul 2022

Ever since AMLO got the ball rolling on the incumbent party’s presidential succession efforts over a year ago by beginning to signal his preferred nominees, the 4T camp has been gearing up for the battle it will face two years from now. Although any campaigning for 2024 nominations is legally pro...

The vote on the LDO was postponed, the government is concerned about the opposition’s edits to the PEC on Fuels, and Sergio Moro will announce his candidacy in the elections today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Jul 2022

The rapporteur of the LDO, Senator Marcos do Val (Podemos-ES), removed from his report and the text the mandatory execution of amendments to the secret budget. One of the factors that contributed to the postponement is the disagreement between deputies and senators regarding the change in voting ...

The end approaches for Castillo; inflation remains stubbornly high
PERU · Report · 12 Jul 2022

In this report, we discuss how long President Pedro Castillo is likely to remain in office; examine the link between private consumption and mass drawdowns from pension funds; and look at Peru’s inflation performance. With Peru’s commodity prices falling and political risk rising, we have decided...

Outlook on the recovery
INDIA · Report · 12 Jul 2022

The most interesting question in Indian economics concerns the strong performance of listed companies in late 2021 and early 2022: will this be maintained and will it carry forward? Or will it peter out? Strong firm performance has been assisted so far by high export growth, but there are some...

Getting prepared to clean the South
UKRAINE · In Brief · 12 Jul 2022

The war again became very tough for Russians over the recent weeks. In fact, the war was tough for Kremlin from the very beginning but, at least, the Russians managed to make modest progress in Donbass when applying "scorched earth" tactics. Just to remind you, Russian forces managed to reach an ...

A first look at the medium-term fiscal program
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 12 Jul 2022

Last Friday, the Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC), an inter-agency body made up of the departments of budget, finance, planning and the BSP, presented the new administration’s fiscal program for 2022 to 2028. The medium-term program hinges on the economy sustaining its growth clip...

Economics: Some claims of significant job growth overlook important points of weakness
MEXICO · Report · 11 Jul 2022

The most recent labor sector indicators reveal continuing weakness in major segments of the Mexican economy even as some analysts and officials have argued that a frank recovery in employment is underway. While growth trends can be seen in indicators of the formal sector’s employment, average wag...

Reverse FX swaps rolled over today, likely base rate increase tomorrow
HUNGARY · In Brief · 11 Jul 2022

Last week, the MNB said that it may pull the base rate (currently 7.75%) up to the new level of the 1-week deposit rate (9.75%) already this week, rather than waiting for this month's regular rate-setting meeting on July 26. They most probably meant that this would happen at tomorrow's (Tuesday, ...

In Press Conference, Economic Minister Batakis confirms IMF program
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 11 Jul 2022

In today’s press conference, Economic Minister Silvina Batakis (SB) gave some insight into what her economic objectives are. Although many of her announcements express an agenda, rather than actions that have effect immediately, her conference had a clear attempt to bring some tranquility to the ...

Greater GDP Growth in 2022 and Contradictory Impulses
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 11 Jul 2022 · 1 response

All indications are that GDP will expand more than previously expected in 2022, by around 2% instead of our previous projection of 1.6%. The steep decline of unemployment, the better performance of real retail sales and exports, the evidence of recovery of civil construction and the growth of all...

A walled-in opposition and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Jul 2022

This is the last week of activity in Congress before the recess. Members of Congress will vote on the Budget Guidelines Law (LDO). In the House, the priority will be to vote on the Social Benefits Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC). Paulo Guedes and Adolfo Sachsida participate in the Senate ...

Russia and EU blocking each other's goods
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Jul 2022

On July 10 Russia said it is stopping gas exports via Nord Stream to Germany for 10 days. It is claimed this is for maintenance work. Germany suspects this is to punish Germany for backing Ukraine. Gas from the pipeline is sold to other EU states. On July 10 Canada said it has repaired a turbine ...

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