GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

President Erdogan has more-or-less declared May 14 as the new date for elections and is expected to issue the executive decree abolishing the legislature during the second week of March. The first essay covers other important milestones on the way to elections, such the final dates to register as...

GULF WEEKLY: Bahrain-Qatar handshake in UAE, Sharjah’s 2030 fiscal plan, Kuwaiti pardon may ease deadlock

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 20 Jan 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil rose for a second week on expectations of Chinese demand growth. * The UAE hosted an Arab leaders summit, featuring a Qatar-Bahrain handshake but no Saudi Arabia. * Inflation rose in Qatar (the highest, at 5.9%), Duba...

The First Package: “Much Ado About Nothing”.

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 17 Jan 2023

Last week, measures were announced aiming to reduce the primary deficit in 2023 (summarized in Table 1). The largest part of the adjustment falls on the revenue side, based on revenues’ reestimation and increase, along with some temporary spending cuts. However, given the nature of Brazil’s fisca...

Signs of inflation moderation, except for rental prices

ISRAEL · Report · 17 Jan 2023

1. Inflation in December surprised slightly on the downside (up 0.3% m/m and 5.3% y/y), with core inflation softening to 5% from 5.3%. 2. Except for rental prices, which continue to accelerate, non-housing service prices and goods are decelerating. 3. Due to recent government measures to re...

Turbulent politics, fuzzy economics

TURKEY · Report · 15 Jan 2023 · 1 response

Turkey’s order for new F-16 jet fighters and upgrade kits are in jeopardy, as Senator Bob Menendez threatens to block them. Assad laid out two conditions for peace with Ankara, to which Erdogan shall not be able to oblige. This deprives him of a minor propaganda asset. Erdogan and Bahceli have...

The Minister of Finance announced economic and fiscal measures for the year, the PF found a draft decree in Anderson Torres’s home suggesting a planned coup d’etat, and the government is considering increasing the minimum wage above the rate of inflation

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Jan 2023

Minister Fernando Haddad disclosed what would be the main measures of the new government to avoid the R$ 231.5 billion shortfall foreseen in the approved budget for 2023. He expects the deficit to come in somewhere between R$ 90 billion and R$ $100 billion. A large part of the plan's measures wil...

Positive surprise on inflation in December, with a small footnote on methodology

HUNGARY · In Brief · 13 Jan 2023 · 1 response

December figures on CPI-inflation, reported this morning, look just beautiful. They are 1.9% mom, 24.5% yoy, the year-on-year number up from 22.5% in November. But the median analyst expectation in Portfolio.hu's survey was 25.8%, and MNB's Q4 inflation report expected 24.8-27.1%. The latter was ...

Contradictory Russian claims on the Battle of Soledar

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Jan 2023

On January 11 the head of the Russian Wagner mercenary group said that it had taken Soledar. Evgeny Prigozhin emphasized how tough the battle had been and also praised the Ukrainians for ''honorably and bravely defending the territory''. He also said the claim that Ukrainians are deserting is fal...

Friend to all enemy to none

PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 11 Jan 2023

Ever since Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. came into office in July last year, his foreign affairs team has been busily working at re-centering Philippine foreign policy after the extreme pro-US then pro-China stances of the previous two administrations. In his words, President Marcos defined his foreign p...

Entering 2023, all buttons punched

TURKEY · Report · 08 Jan 2023 · 2 responses

President Erdogan kicked off the year with the mother of all pork-barreling drives to win elections. While his magnanimity is certain to stimulate the standings in the polls of him and his AKP-MHP alliance, the surge is very unlikely to last until the elections or alter the current equilibrium in...

Zelensky hails arms package

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Jan 2023

On January 7 the Ukrainian President applauded Western countries for unprecedented arms shipments. The US is going to send Bradley armored fighting vehicles that destroy tanks as well as anti-aircraft missiles, drones, rockets, howitzers and high precision weapons. On January 6 the US announced t...

Russia political/pandemic update: Russia-West conflict to deepen in 2023

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Jan 2023 · 1 response

As time goes by and the conflict in Ukraine produces increasingly higher casualties, politicians of all sorts care less and less about those who have become victims of political stubbornness. Indeed, if we assume that the amount of compassion and regret politicians offer to ordinary people is a c...

GULF WEEKLY: Dubai lifts alcohol tax, FAB mooted buying StanChart, Oman’s detailed budget

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 06 Jan 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil dipped below $80 this week on global recession fears. * The GCC had 5/10 most active SWFs in 2022, boosting investments in major deals by 88% y/y. * The UAE called a UN meeting over a controversial holy site visit by ...

Russia sends hypersonic missiles to the Atlantic

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Jan 2023

On January 4 it was announced on Russian TV that Russian frigates armed with Zircon missiles have been dispatched to the Atlantic. The frigate is the Admiral Gorshkov. Putin is presumably acting tough to deter the West from arming Ukraine and also to distract the Russian public from the recent se...

Record warm weather in Europe, gas reserves slightly up, gas price massively down

HUNGARY · In Brief · 04 Jan 2023

It seems that for now at least, Mother Nature is refusing to play to the hands of Vladimir Vladimirovich (Mr. Putin), whose not-so-secret objectives include making Europe truly feel the winter cold, as gas supplies are proving insufficient. In these days, most of Europe, including Hungary, is exp...