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Russia allows Kazakh oil through
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Jul 2022

On July 11 a Russian court ruled that the 30-day bank on unloading Kazakh oil is illegal. Relations between the two former Soviet republics had been soured by this. Now Kazakhstan will have to pay a mere USD 3,000 fine instead.  On July 5 the President of Kazakhstan said that his country would fi...

The current account surplus widens in 2Q22
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 11 Jul 2022

The Central bank reported that Russia's current account surplus widened in 2Q22 to $70.1 bn from $68.4 bn in 1Q22, and reached $138.5 bn in 1H22. In 1H21 this surplus accounted for $39.7 bn. The CBR no longer publishes detailed balance of payments statistics as it used to do, so that a few very a...

A PT supporter was murdered by one of Bolsonaro’s followers, Congress will vote on presidential vetoes and the LDO, and a series of polls will be published throughout the week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Jul 2022

Despite being an isolated incident, the murder will likely be investigated politically. The issue is not good for the government, although it is difficult to measure its impact in terms of intended votes. Today, Congress will vote on presidential vetoes, including the vetoes dealing with the rail...

Next rate hike likely to be 0.5% as well
ISRAEL · Report · 11 Jul 2022

1. Rates increased by 0.5% last week, but the hawkish tone was somewhat surprising. 2. The fiscal surplus in the last 12 months reached 0.4% GDP on strong tax revenues; good news for the bond market. 3. Business sector sentiment remains robust, with expectations for further expansion. 4...

Next rate hike likely to be 0.5% as well
ISRAEL · In Brief · 10 Jul 2022

Inflation: We expect June’s CPI (to be released on Friday) to increase by 0.5% m/m (4.6% y/y, up from 4.1% in May), impacted by a 9.4% increase in petrol prices and a sharp increase in travel abroad prices. Food prices also moved higher, while fresh produce prices declined as well as apparel pric...

Russia twinning Ukrainian towns with Russian towns
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Jul 2022

On July 4 the Kremlin said that St Petersburg was twinned with Mariupol, Ukraine. The Governor of St Petersburg visited the city. Over 90% of Mariupol's buildings were damaged or destroyed in the war. The governor visited a school and distributed computers. Schools in St Petersburg shall help Mar...

Tetchy G20 for Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Jul 2022

On July 8 the meeting of the 20 largest economies took place in Indonesia. Western countries inveighed against Russia. Western countries did not walk out when Lavrov addressed the conference. The Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov walked out of the meeting because of Germany castigating the invasion...

CPI-inflation and cash budget deficit: bad news and good news
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Jul 2022

The forint is trading around EURHUF405 again, even though the MNB sold €1588m in exchange for forints for three days in reverse swaps today. Amidst these circumstances, key fundamental data appears to be particularly important. In that regard, there has been equally bad news and good news today. ...

Financial repression galore
TURKEY · Report · 08 Jul 2022

Ankara is getting increasingly desperate in its efforts to stop TL weakness and slow credit growth, against a backdrop of hugely negative real interest rates. The introduction of myriad ad hoc and distortionary measures – or ever-growing “financial repression”, in short – is having limited effect...

GULF WEEKLY: Covid wave peaks, Tecom declines after IPO, Kuwait-Bahrain bank merger
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 08 Jul 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil fell on recession concerns, briefly dipping below $100, despite growing turbulence in Libya. * The Covid wave may have peaked in early July, particularly in KSA, where daily cases have halved. * Saudi’s PMI rose to 57...

Webinar Replay: Ecuador - Dim light at the end of the tunnel
ECUADOR · Report · 08 Jul 2022

Despite protests, President Lasso has survived his impeachment vote. What is ahead for Ecuador? Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring Magdalena Barreiro discussing the ramifications of the crisis on Ecuador's outlook.

The vote on the PEC on Fuels was postponed to next week, the Senate should vote on the LDO on Monday, and yesterday President Jair Bolsonaro once again criticized electronic voting machines
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Jul 2022

Due to lack of a quorum, Lower House President Arthur Lira postponed the vote on the PEC on Fuels, which expands social benefits, to next week. The postponement is a defeat for the government, which wanted to resolve the matter as early as this week. But it does not change the likelihood of appro...

Between candor and carelessness
COLOMBIA · Report · 08 Jul 2022 · 1 response

How will outgoing president Iván Duque’s last Medium-Term Fiscal Framework affect President-elect Gustavo Petro’s fiscal strategy? First, the National Central Government deficit looks dramatically better under the 2022 MTFF. Not only did the 2021 NCG deficit result come in way below expectations ...

The forint jumped on a big sterilisation rate increase and government talk on concessions to the EU Commission
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Jul 2022

The forint appreciated back to EURHUF 402-403 on Thursday from the previous day's historic low at 414-417. The authorities did two things to achieve this: 1. The MNB raised the 1-week deposit rate (the effective sterilisation rate) by 200bps to 9.75%, after expressly saying that recent HUF deprec...

Russian bureaucrats appointed in occupied Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Jul 2022

Moscow has been putting officials in place in the regions of Ukraine that it controls. This is presumably preparatory to these areas' being integrated into Russia formally. A former Duma deputy, regional government officials and a senior FSB officer are among the appointees. It is said by officia...

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