GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

When investment faltered from 2011 onwards, some felt that there was a "deals rather than rules" solution to the problem. Perhaps the state could foster a small set of private "national champion" firms that would play a leadership role in investment. Through these firms, there could be a new rena...

Zelensky visited Brussels

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Feb 2023

On February 9 he addressed the European Parliament. He was cheered to the rafters and wore his trademark green military fatigues. He pleaded with them to speed up deliveries of long-range weapons. Zelensky warned the EU that Russia is intensifying its offensive and within weeks will start an all ...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary

KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 09 Feb 2023

Aeroflot: The Russian company will resume its regular flights to Kazakhstan in February Jan 30 QazaqGaz: The company and Italian Eni discussed possible prospects for cooperation in f the construction of the Kashagan gas processing plant Jan 31 National bank: The current account surplus for FY22 r...

Bernard Appy said that Tax Reform will be conducted in two phases, Minister Alexandre Silveira said that the privatization effort has left Brazil at a disadvantage, and President Lula travels to the US today

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Feb 2023

The Extraordinary Secretary for Tax Reform of the Ministry of Finance, Bernard Appy, said that the reform will be conducted in two phases: the discussion of consumption taxation and later, the taxation of income and payrolls. According to Appy, to maintain the current collection, the rates of the...

Zelensky visits London

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Feb 2023

On February 8 the Ukrainian President made an unannounced visit to the UK. He became the first Ukrainian President to address Parliament and meet the king. His address to Parliament was very well received. Zelensky requested fighter jets. The United Kingdom said it will start to train Ukrainians ...

December statistics leaves mixed impression, inflation remains elevated in the early 2023

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 08 Feb 2023

Rosstat reported that the output of the five basic sectors was down in 2022 by a mere 1.3%, while in December alone, it was down by 4.3% y-o-y. The performance in various sectors was quite uneven as construction grew by 5.2% and 6.9% in 2022 and December (y-o-y in the latter case). Agricultural o...

Merchandise trade balance improved in December

HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Feb 2023

This was the first time since April 2021 that the trade balance got better than a year earlier: Note: Monthly merchandise trade balances in EUR million; Source: KSH In nominal EUR terms, exports rose by 12.3% yoy, whereas imports grew by 9.9% yoy in December. As a result, the monthly trade defici...

Lula once again criticized the Central Bank, he also spoke about the privatization of Eletrobras, and the government discusses compensation for states regarding the ICMS tax

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Feb 2023

President Lula once again criticized the Central Bank (BC). He went so far as to say that the Senate needs to "be on the lookout" for the president of the Central Bank, Roberto Campos Neto. It is not a simple process to remove the president of the BC, and the chance it will happen is low. Lula al...

Robust industry and poor retail sales must be good for the BOP

HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Feb 2023

Another key piece of statistics after yesterday's poor retail sales number has been the release of the preliminary December industrial output data, with positive growth of 3.8% mom, 5.5% yoy on seasonally and calendar-adjusted basis. Note: Volume data, December 2015 = 100; Source: KSH At this sta...

Politics: The Morena legislative agenda is at the service of AMLO's main political interests

MEXICO · Report · 06 Feb 2023

Now that Congress has reconvened, the administration is focused on putting the final touches on its electoral agenda as the 2024 presidential contest draws nearer. For starters, there is the small matter of the Chamber of Deputies' stripping out the "eternal life clause” from the version of the "...

NA government protocol: This is as good as it gets

TURKEY · In Brief · 01 Feb 2023

Turkey’s six-party opposition alliance, recently renamed as the Nation Alliance, issued its election manifesto and coalition protocol with great fanfare on 30 January, thus making asymptotic progress to the finish line, which would be crossed if it manages to unite around a single presidential ca...

OFZ: Minfin may soon resume the placement of floaters

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 31 Jan 2023

By the end of January, the Russian Ministry of Finance managed to raise about R200 bln on the OFZ market, which looks like a very modest result compared to 2022 (when the total amount of issuance reached R3.3 trln). So far, the government is sticking with cautious tactics, placing mostly fixed-ra...

The market is monitoring changes in the BNDES, Lula spoke about the Mercosur-EU trade agreement yesterday, and Senator Marinho is gaining support in the election for Senate president

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 31 Jan 2023

Yesterday, the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, said that the Brazilian Development Bank (BNDES) will discuss internally the credit policy for re-industrialization. The market is keeping a close eye on the BNDES to see whether there will be changes in the Long Term Rate (TLP). Yesterday, aft...

What is the Best Fiscal Risk Premium Measure: Exchange Rate, Stock Market Index or Yield Curve?

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 30 Jan 2023

The absence of a fiscal framework results in a risk premium that is manifested in the prices of assets, such as the exchange rate, stock prices and the position and slope of the yield curve. Although in evaluating the reactions to the information related to fiscal policy, we look at these three p...

Inflation is a challenge for the Lula government and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Jan 2023 · 1 response

The Legislative and Judicial branches resume activities. Elections in the House and Senate are at the center of the political world. Arthur Lira (PP-AL) and Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), who are running for re-election, are the favorites. In the economy, the first meeting of the Monetary Policy Commi...