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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Fiscal Fragility and Concern Over the Road Ahead
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 18 Jul 2022

In the past 30 days, the Real has weakened from R$5.10/US$ to R$5.40/US$, once again placing it among the currencies that have depreciated the most in relation to the dollar. At the same time, the 10 year Brazilian CDS quotes – a traditional risk measure – have surpassed 400 points. Since the cou...

Politics: AMLO´s visit to Washington has little to show
MEXICO · Report · 18 Jul 2022

When President López Obrador announced plans for an official work trip to Washington after he shunned President Biden’s Summit of the Americas, it wasn’t immediately clear exactly what officials in both countries expected to accomplish. No specific agenda was ever announced, and a US official was...

Why Lula wants to avoid a second round and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Jul 2022

On Monday, Bolsonaro has a meeting with foreign ambassadors to discuss electronic voting machines. On Wednesday, July 20, the party convention period begins. The PDT, PT and PL conventions will be held on July 20, 21 and 24, respectively. Two polls on the presidential election (PoderData and Exam...

Zelensky fires two top officials as Russia targets HIMARS
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Jul 2022

On July 18 Zelensky fired his security chief and prosecutor general. He said 650 people are suspected of treason and 60 officials in the Russian occupied zone are working for Russia. The firings are indicative of disarray in the Ukrainian government. How do they see their future in view of the wa...

Putin says Russia suffers colossal tech problems due to sanctions
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Jul 2022

On July 18 Putin said that Russia would surmount the problems caused by sanctions. He said the situation was, ''hugely challenging''. This will please the West. ''We cannot develop in isolation'' added Putin. Apple, Microsoft, Intel and other tech companies ended operations in Russia in March 202...

Still growing, amid inflation-fighting and great uncertainty
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 18 Jul 2022 · 1 response

The Dominican economy continues to grow, although at a slower monthly rate. In January-May 2022, the economy grew 5.6%, compared to the same period of 2021. But projections indicate that 2022 growth will end up at 5%, or possibly even less, at closer to 4.3%. For H2 2022, a significant growth slo...

Bolsonaro will meet with ambassadors to discuss the electronic voting machines, Lula is trying to gain support from the agribusiness and business sectors, and party conventions begin on Wednesday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Jul 2022

President Jair Bolsonaro's idea is to present data that he believes shows the fragility of the electronic voting machines in the country. The presidents of the Supreme Federal Court (STF) and the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) will not participate. Afterward, Bolsonaro will hold an event for his ...

Inflation in line with expectations as rental prices accelerate
ISRAEL · Report · 18 Jul 2022

1. June’s CPI (in line with consensus) reflects increased service price inflation, especially in housing rental prices. 2. Core inflation accelerated to 4.1% y/y in June, up from 3.65% last month. 3. Trade data reflect expansion in both exports and imports as economic activity remains fairly st...

Zelenskiy removes the Head of Secret Service and Chief Prosecutor
UKRAINE · In Brief · 18 Jul 2022

Yesterday, late in the night President Volodymyr Zelenskiy informed that he removed the Head of Secret Bureau of Ukraine (SBU) Ivan Bakanov and the Chief Prosecutor Iryna Venediktova. In the case of Bakanov, the formal reasoning for his displacement were the failures defending the South from Russ...

Inflation in line with expectations as rental prices accelerate
ISRAEL · In Brief · 17 Jul 2022

Inflation: June’s CPI was in line with consensus  * Inflation increased by 0.4% and by 4.4% y/y (up from 4.1% in May).  * Core inflation accelerated to 4.1% from 3.65%, as housing rental prices (OER) increased by 4.1% y/y from 3.4%.  * Inflation is more broad-based, and more concentrated in price...

Long holiday, short update
TURKEY · Report · 17 Jul 2022 · 1 response

Having covered much of the recent developments in our Monthly (of July 8, 2022), we provide a brief update in this post-Eid Weekly Tracker. On the politics side, the two most important developments, which may sound obscure and trite to our readership -- and, in that order -- are the accelerati...

Western countries mulling more sanctions on Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Jul 2022

On July 16 the US Treasury Secretary said her meeting with 19 other finance ministers were productive. They discussed putting a cap on the price they will pay for Russian oil. However, not all 20 countries agree on a solution. No formal communique has been issued by the G20: the Indonesians issue...

Russian missile strikes on Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Jul 2022

On July 14 a Russian missile hit Vinnytsia and killed 23 people. Ukraine says they were civilians. Russia says it attacked that building because it was hosting a military meeting. Zelensky said the attack was ''terrorism''. On July 15 missiles struck a university in Mykolaiv. The Russian military...

Russian Macro: Adjusting to a new reality
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 15 Jul 2022

As time goes by, trade relations between Russia and the EU that used to be Russia's major trade partner are shrinking. Sanctions on Russia gradually kept evolving into something which Iran had experienced for decades, keeping its economy alive, albeit in a rather peculiar fashion. At this stage, ...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 15 Jul 2022

Despite the ongoing easing of capital controls, USD and EUR remain toxic in the eyes of domestic investors and corporates. As a result, despite decreased oil prices and verbal interventions by the authorities aimed at weakening the Russian currency, the ruble remains strong. The government has el...

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