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The MDB is expected to officially launch Senator Tebet’s presidential candidacy on Wednesday, the latest polls show that Bolsonaro has a 58% rate of rejection, and the government has to submit the Federal Budget for 2023 by August 31
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Jul 2022

The MDB convention to formalize Senator Simone Tebet's candidacy for the Planalto Palace has been taken to court. An annulment request was submitted to the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) yesterday. While the Ipespe poll shows that the distance between Lula and Bolsonaro fell from 11% to 9%, FSB P...

Gazprom to cut deliveries to EU dramatically
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Jul 2022

On July 26 the Russian gas giant announced that it will reduce supplies via Nord Stream to 33 million cubic meters per day. That is 20% of capacity. Gazprom says this is due to technical problems. The cut will take effect from 0700 Moscow time on July 27. Earlier in July 2022 Gazprom cut gas supp...

The Ciro factor in the presidential election and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Jul 2022

Party conventions will remain at the center of political debate. On Wednesday, July 27, the MDB will decide whether to officially launch the presidential candidacy of Senator Simone Tebet. The PSDB will meet to select the vice president on Senator Tebet's ticket. The government is expected to ann...

The Central Bank’s Dilemma: to stop or not to stop?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 25 Jul 2022

At the next COPOM meeting, the Central Bank will likely increase the SELIC rate by 50 basis points, to 13.75%. Although this rate is strongly restrictive, will this mark the end of the monetary tightening cycle? The analysis of the balance of risks – domestic and international – indicates it woul...

Kazakhstan macro: Economic growth reportedly decelerated in 2Q22 but will bounce back
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 25 Jul 2022

The Kazakh president recently mentioned that the country’s GDP was up by a mere 3.4% y-o-y in 1H22, while in 1Q22, it was up by 4.6% y-o-y. Even though the figure quoted by the president had not yet been officially published, the general perception is that economic growth in the country slowed in...

Economics: Private consumption strengthens but spending on durable goods and services remains weak
MEXICO · Report · 25 Jul 2022

Growth in private consumption has accelerated in recent months but has yet to significantly improve on pre-pandemic levels. Household expenditure has not grown uniformly, and there are especially pronounced lags in the consumption of durable goods such as autos and electronic appliances, as well ...

Politics: US pressure underlies aged capo’s arrest as drug trade and consumption keep expanding
MEXICO · Report · 25 Jul 2022

The recent arrest by the Mexican Marines of Caro Quintero, the once-powerful drug kingpin and prime suspect in the 1985 abduction, torture and murder of DEA Special Agent Enrique Camarena, says a lot about the current state of US-Mexico relations. His capture came three days after President López...

A good SONA
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 25 Jul 2022

President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. today gave his first State of the Nation Address (SONA) before congress. The speech was forward-looking, without the usual finger pointing of inherited problems, reminding listeners that this administration is in part a continuity of the last one. This is evident n...

The PL officially launched Jair Bolsonaro’s candidacy yesterday, a part of the MDB supports Lula, and the government is expected to publish a decree to reduce the IPI
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Jul 2022

The slogan chosen for the PL convention was “For the good of Brazil”. In addition to his anti-establishment narratives, Bolsonaro's speech included attacks on Lula and the defense of the economic measures adopted by the federal government. He also called on his supporters to “take to the streets ...

The INR at 80
INDIA · Report · 25 Jul 2022

Recent statements by the RBI Governor have clarified the commitment of RBI to defending the exchange rate. Round numbers such as 65, 70, 75, 80, etc. seem to be places where the RBI takes a stand. USD/INR volatility is lower for the last Rs.1 or Rs.2 prior to the round number, and then volatility...

Recovering from the lockdowns
CHINA · Report · 25 Jul 2022

GDP grew only 2.5% y/y in H1, but is recovering from the lockdowns. As the pandemic shock has come gradually under control, and with the start of various economic stabilization policies, the recovery of growth in June has lifted Q2 growth to achieve positive growth of 0.4% y/y, contributing to a ...

Conditions are ripe for steady aggressive tightening
ISRAEL · Report · 25 Jul 2022

1. Despite some modest decline in the demand for workers, the labor market remains tight and at full employment. 2. Growth appears to be fairly steady, with some moderation. 3. We continue to expect fairly aggressive tightening this year, to 2.75% by early 2023.

Fitch Ratings affirmed its BBB/Stable rating for Hungary
HUNGARY · In Brief · 25 Jul 2022

This was announced on Friday, which was set as the second and last review date for Fitch's Hungarian sovereign rating for 2022. Finance minister Varga specifically commented on this news, calling the rating decision as truly favourable. To add context, he mentioned that during the past few months...

Russian Foreign Minister in Africa
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Jul 2022

On July 24 Sergei Lavrov visited Egypt. He is trying to convince Egypt that Russia will honor the grain export deal. Ukraine is Egypt's major supplier of grain. Many Egyptians live on USD 2 per day. If the prices rises a few cents there will be riots.  Egypt has a warm relationship with Russia ba...

No summer rest for the wicked
TURKEY · Report · 24 Jul 2022 · 1 response

Turkey could be experiencing a huge Covid-19 outbreak, about which the government policy seems to be “willful neglect”. Ankara’s objective remains to avoid any action that might harm the tourism season, but the policy could have devastating reverberations on the economy in winter months. As Pr...

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