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Kazakhstan’s budget deficit expectedly widens amid a year-end spending spree
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 23 Nov 2022 · 1 response

In a short report, the Kazakh Ministry of Finance reported that in 10M22, the republican budget deficit widened to around KZT1.5 trillion from less than KZT 1.1 trillion in 9M22 as expenditures started catching up with the amended plan. In 10M2, the government spent KZT14.5 trillion, while in 9M2...

The PL filed a lawsuit at the TSE calling for the annulment of votes from almost 280,000 voting machines, the text of the Transition PEC should be finalized today, and the STF should resume analysis of the INSS “lifelong review”
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Nov 2022

Yesterday, the PL filed a lawsuit at the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) asking for the annulment of the votes of 279,300 electronic voting machines due to a “malfunction” in the system. The president of the TSE, Minister Alexandre de Moraes, decided that Bolsonaro's coalition will have to present...

Russia accuses Ukraine of the murders of POWs
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Nov 2022

On November 20 Russia said that 10 Russians who were captured by Ukraine were shot dead. The United Nations published a report saying both sides had tortured and mistreated Prisoners of War (POWs).Russia has shown footage of men in Russian uniform who had been shot from close range. The video als...

Soccer – our hope of last resort
ECUADOR · Report · 22 Nov 2022

The intentions of Correistas, Social Christians, and the rebels from Pachakutik to oust President Guillermo Lasso have not ended. They sent a recent new petition to the Electoral Council to revoke his mandate under the argument of a “failed state”, based on the recent cruel massacres that occurre...

Absolutely no surprise at today's Monetary Council meeting
HUNGARY · In Brief · 22 Nov 2022

As we wrote yesterday, the regular monthly rate-setting meeting today was not expected to lead to any policy change, as the existing mix appears to be working fine for now. The Council exactly met this expectation, leaving the base rate at 13%, the interest rate corridor at 12.5-25%, and saying p...

Leaders should reach an agreement on the Transition PEC today, the Senate may vote on official appointments, and in a leaked audio message TCU Minister Augusto Nardes said there would be “a very unpredictable event in the country”
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Nov 2022

The president of the House, Arthur Lira, said that the deadline is short as there are only about 20 working days left until the National Congress recesses. A consensus must be reached this week so that the PEC can conclude its analysis in the Senate next week and, later, be submitted to the House...

Congress vs. Castillo—who sacks whom?
PERU · Report · 22 Nov 2022

In this report, we try to answer three key questions: What will happen to the presidency of Pedro Castillo? Is the economy transitioning to a new normal growth rate? And when will the Central Bank end its tightening cycle? We argue that the confrontation between President Pedro Castillo and th...

It won't be easy for Lula and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Nov 2022

With Lula's return to Brazil after his trip to Egypt, he is expected to announce future members of his ministerial team. Party leaders are trying to reach an agreement on the Transition PEC, which may be put to a vote in the Senate by the end of the month. This week's Talking Points:  ...

A Disastrous Proposal
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 21 Nov 2022

With a public debt that is too big for a developing country and with a real interest rate higher than the economic growth rate, Brazil needs to generate primary surpluses sufficiently large to reduce the debt/GDP ratio to avoid losing control of inflation and hampering economic growth. However, e...

Politics: Massive protest against AMLO’s political reform, potentially upending politics
MEXICO · Report · 21 Nov 2022

The upstart National Civic Front (FCN) and five other civil society organizations that have all now banded together in the "Unidos" citizens' initiative staged protests nationwide on November 13 to defend the National Electoral Institute and oppose the electoral reform of President López Obrador....

Politics in times of high inflation
ARGENTINA · Report · 21 Nov 2022

In a context of rising inflation and low government confidence indices, at last Thursday's speech on the “Day of the Militancy” (the day when parties celebrate the commitment and support of their voters), CFK presented herself in a rock-star manner, in a crowded “Ciudad de La Plata” Stadium. She ...

Rates increased by 0.5% with a more dovish monetary statement
ISRAEL · In Brief · 21 Nov 2022

Policy rates increased by 0.5% today to a level of 3.25%. Previously, expectations were divided between a 0.5% and a 0.75% rate hike. We note that for the first time we the monetary announcement sounded a bit more dovish, in conjunction with the usual statements supporting tightening (economic ac...

Leaders try to reach an agreement on the Transition PEC, Lula will make important decisions in Brasilia this week, and on Friday the STF should decide regarding sentences in the tax area
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Nov 2022

Allied leaders will try to reach an agreement on the Transition Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC). Some options are already on the table. The most likely scenario today continues to be a value lower than that proposed by the government and a period of one year. Lula will be in Brasilia this...

President of Kazakhstan re-elected
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Nov 2022

On November 20, in a widely expected result, the president won another term. Exit polls show him winning at least 82% of the vote. The official tally has not been announced.  Turnout was only 69%. Some Kazakhs see no point in voting because the result is a foregone conclusion. The constitution wa...

OFZ: a new approach to placement tactics
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 21 Nov 2022

In mid-October, the Russian Ministry of Finance resumed primary OFZ auctions despite challenging market conditions. Moreover, by the beginning of November, it became clear that the government had set a priority to borrow as much as possible. As a result, the Ministry raised R1.3 trln on the marke...

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