GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Gulf central banks, except for Kuwait’s, mirrored the Fed’s +25bp hike, as usual. * S&P upgraded Saudi Arabia’s credit rating to A, and Moody’s added a positive outlook. * Saudi and Qatari investors were hit hard by Credi...

More drone strikes as Xi leaves Russia

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Mar 2023

On March 22 the Chinese President flew home. There was a drone strike on the Russian naval base at Sevastopol that Russia claimed to have fended off. Russia said no damage was inflicted by the drones. The Russian Governor of Crimea said it is false to say, as some have, that people are leaving Cr...

A very soft landing, with plenty of turbulence

CHILE · Report · 21 Mar 2023

Chilean economic activity has been moving away from the protracted decline observed in the second half of 2022. The Monthly Economic Activity Index surprised positively in January. The breakdown by sectors showed widespread improvement. Nevertheless, services continued to lead the way. The real q...

Economics: Continuing export strength potentially threatened by the direction of US demand

MEXICO · Report · 21 Mar 2023

Economic activity data for January and February has delivered mixed results in the case of manufacturing and construction, as have consumer and business confidence indicators. US industrial production, with its decisive incidence on Mexican manufacturing, has been slowing over the past three mon...

Politics: The contradictions and problems of militarizing public security

MEXICO · Report · 20 Mar 2023

The twin issues of public security and its militarization, specifically the role of the Armed Forces and National Guard, are once again on the front burner in Mexico. The latest spark was a February 26 incident involving students traveling home after a night of partying in border city Nuevo Lared...

COPOM, FOMC and ECB: Central Banks Carrying Out Their Mandates

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Mar 2023

Robert Mundell, who won a Nobel Prize for Economics in 1999, expressed the “principle of effective market classification”, advocating the use of each economic policy instrument in pursuit of the objective with the greatest efficiency. The instrument that has a “comparative advantage” to stanch a ...

Inflation remains sticky and broad based

ISRAEL · Report · 20 Mar 2023

1. Inflation in February surprised on the upside and remains both sticky and broad-based. 2. Most macro factors support weaker inflationary pressure going forward, except for the likelihood of further shekel weakness. 3. At this stage, we expect a 0.5% rate hike on April 3, as the BoI is li...

Saudi Arabia’s ratings improve while Kuwait’s political crisis deepens

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 20 Mar 2023

There were some significant and potentially market-moving developments in the Gulf over the weekend and so we are putting out a quick note, rather than waiting to roll up our analysis into our weekly briefing on Friday. * Saudi Arabia received a rating upgrade from S&P and a positive outlook f...

Russia evades sanctions by ordering from Kazakhstan

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Mar 2023

On March 17 Reuters reported that Russian companies are ordering Kazakh companies to buy forbidden items from the West on their behalf. These items are then sold to Russia. Russia is also doing this via Turkey and other former Soviet states. It seems that Turkey is now taking action to stop its c...

January BOP data slightly disappointing, no rate cut likely on March 28

HUNGARY · In Brief · 17 Mar 2023

Well, January BOP, published today, was not really splendid. If it had been only about the trade account, it would have been great, the annualised single-month deficit ratio falling to 1% of GDP from 2.8% in January 2022, the merchandise deficit doing reasonably well (stable in absolute terms, do...

Explosion at Russian internal intelligence office

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Mar 2023

On March 16 it killed 3 people and injured others. It is unclear if the explosion was caused by enemy action at Rostov on Don. The regional governor said that this explosion was caused by electric wiring. Ukraine has not commented on the incident. Ukraine has carried out numerous attacks in Russi...

Webinar replay - Hungary: Macroeconomic maneuvers and fraught foreign policy

HUNGARY · Report · 17 Mar 2023

How will Hungary’s tight monetary and fiscal policies serve it in 2023 amid economic recession? With rapid BOP improvement on markedly decreasing energy import prices paired with weak domestic demand, will there be disinflation? How will Hungary’s continuing outlier status within the EU and NATO ...

Justice Lewandowski granted the injunction requested by the PCdoB on the State-Owned Companies Law, Minister Haddad will present the new fiscal framework today, and today is the last day for senators to collect signatures for the January 8 CPI

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Mar 2023

Justice Ricardo Lewandowski responded to the PCdoB's request for an injunction and suspended parts of the State-Owned Companies Law that restrict the appointment of politicians to management positions. He is the rapporteur for the case in the STF that questions the law. Today, the Minister of Fin...

Belarusian President in Iran

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Mar 2023

On March 13 President Lukashenko met his Iranian counterpart in Teheran. The two presidents signed an agreement on cooperation up to 2026. Belarus is not fighting in Ukraine but is allowing Russians to attack Ukraine via Belarus. Iran is part of Lukashenko's tour of the few authoritarian states t...

Russia: a brief market watch

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 16 Mar 2023

Brent/Urals spread recently narrowed to about $25/bbl (from $32-34/bbl seen in December). Although, it didn’t support the ruble as Brent fell below the $75/bbl benchmark amid renewed concerns about a global slowdown. The current thinking is that the economic problems may turn more acute amid rece...