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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Apr 30
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Brazil Economics databank Apr 14
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Central America databank May 1
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Chile databank Apr 7
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank May 12
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Dominican Republic databank Apr 28
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Ecuador databank Apr 22
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Gulf Countries databank May 9
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Hungary databank Apr 22
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India databank Apr 28
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Mexico databank May 12
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Panama databank Jan 28
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Peru databank Apr 28
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Philippines databank May 8
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Poland databank Apr 29
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Russia Economics databank May 12
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South Africa databank May 6
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Turkey databank Apr 24
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Ukraine databank May 12
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Venezuela databank May 5
NEWS FLASH
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COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Rate hike of 0.5% likely today
ISRAEL · Report · 21 Nov 2022
1. Opinions are divided regarding today’s rate decision: we are leaning towards a 0.5% hike, but 0.75% cannot be ruled out. 2. GDP growth slowed in Q322 on modest private consumption growth, while investments and high-tech service exports expanded. 3. Inflation is expected to slow next year...
Fuels restrictions today, rate-setting meeting tomorrow, EP resolution on Thursday
HUNGARY · In Brief · 21 Nov 2022
1. From today, MOL, essentially the only wholesaler of fuels in the country in these days, is not supplying those petrol stations, for which it is not contractually required to do so. This came after the incident that an energy supplier unit of the Friendship pipeline in Ukraine was hit by a Russ...
Economics: As the monetary rate rises, bank credit continues to expand
MEXICO · Report · 21 Nov 2022 · 1 response
With the recent hikes in monetary policy interest rates in leading economies at a time of persistently high inflation, central bank authorities have signaled that we are facing a prolonged period of elevated interest rates. Such warnings from the Federal Reserve are of particular significance to ...
Rate hike of 0.5% likely today
ISRAEL · In Brief · 20 Nov 2022
Today’s rate decision will not be an easy one Expectations are divided between a 0.5% and a 0.75% hike. Several factors support a 0.75% hike, including October’s upward inflation surprise, accelerating core inflation y/y, presently decent growth, a tight labor market and wage pressures. Other fac...
Poland refuses to let Russian Foreign Minister in
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Nov 2022
On November 19 Warsaw said that it will not allow the Russian FM to attend the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), which Poland is hosting. Poland is not letting Sergei Lavrov in because he is under EU sanctions. Poland is perhaps Ukraine's foremost advocate in the EU. The...
Murder, mystery, mayhem
TURKEY · Report · 20 Nov 2022 · 1 response
Turkish jets strafed Syrian Kurdish settlements in retaliation for the Beyoglu terror attack. We doubt this will escalate into a military campaign, though. There is a lot of commentary on Erdogan’s diplomatic efforts elevating his credibility and raising his voter approval at home. We are circums...
Finland to build fence on the Russian border
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Nov 2022
On November 18 Finland said the 200 km fence will enhance its security. Finland has been neutral since 1944. In March 2022 it ended this policy because it said there was a threat from Russia and applied to join NATO. That is a breach of its 1944 peace treaty with the USSR. The 3-meter fence will ...
Russians seeking Armenian citizenship
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Nov 2022
In Q1 and Q2 2022 over 372,000 Russians went to Armenia. That is more than double the number in the same period in 2021. Since the mobilization in September 2022 even more Russians moved to Armenia but data is not yet available. Some of the Russians who went to Armenia in 2022 went on short visit...
GULF WEEKLY: Gulf IPOs dominate EMEA, IMF reports on Oman, US grants MBS immunity
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 18 Nov 2022 · 1 response
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil dipped to a one-month low on Fed worries and as OPEC/IEA revised down demand forecasts. * Kuwait and Qatar voted for Ukraine reparations while other Gulf states abstained. * Gulf IPOs have raised $18bn already this ye...
Negative global and domestic shocks slow the South African economy
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 18 Nov 2022 · 2 responses
Households: Consumption expenditure by households has been one of the key drivers of the South African economy’s recovery from the Covid-19-induced recession. Although household consumption is expected to remain a key driver for growth, this is expected to be at a lesser extent than during the pe...
VP Geraldo Alckmin made a statement reaffirming the next government’s commitment to fiscal responsibility, Davi Alcolumbre is positioning himself to run for president of the Senate, and Lula will arrive in Brazil this weekend
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Nov 2022
Vice President-elect Geraldo Alckmin gave an interview saying that the future government will cut expenses that can be cut. He spoke in favor of reviewing contracts – all of them – to find resources. He also placed Tax Reform as a central issue for the new government. Davi Alcolumbre, who was pre...
Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 17 Nov 2022
Strong demand for cash from the household sector combined with increased issuance activity of the Finance Ministry fueled demand for refinancing in CBR. The overall amount of REPO loans exceeded R1.7 trln. Despite that, RUONIA moved well above the key rate level in the first half of the month. Gi...
Dutch court convicts 3 men for downing Air Malaysia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Nov 2022
On November 17 the court found 2 Russians and 1 pro-Moscow Ukrainian were found guilty in absentia of shooting down the civilian airliner in 2014. This resulted in the deaths of 298 people on MH17.One defendant was acquitted. The court found that the plane was shot down on purpose but that the gu...
The Transition PEC was submitted yesterday, and the proposal will likely be changed before approval
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Nov 2022
Finally, the transition team presented the text of the Transition Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC) to the National Congress. In fact, it is very unlikely that Congress will approve the measure in the terms proposed by the government. There is consensus on removing Bolsa Família from the sp...
Ukraine grain deal extended
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Nov 2022
On November 17 the United Nations and Ukraine said the deal whereby Ukrainian food is exported through the Black Sea has been given a 120 day extension. Turkey is vital in this because the ships carrying the food will pass through the Bosphorous Strait which is a Turkish waterway flowing through ...