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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The February electoral process: a critical political thermometer
ECUADOR · Report · 20 Jan 2023

The local government elections that will take place on February 5 are far from just another electoral process. They are extremely important to assess if the Correistas have regained strength, if CONAIE and Pachakutik have extended their influence to the national level, and if the Social Christian...

Belarus and Russian air forces carry out joint drills
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Jan 2023

On January 16 the allied nations began their drills. This involves every airfield in Belarus. The Belarusian Ministry of Defense has been unusually revealing about the nature of the drills. It stated that the two air forces are practicing airborne landings, deliveries of material and the evacuati...

GULF WEEKLY: Bahrain-Qatar handshake in UAE, Sharjah’s 2030 fiscal plan, Kuwaiti pardon may ease deadlock
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 20 Jan 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil rose for a second week on expectations of Chinese demand growth. * The UAE hosted an Arab leaders summit, featuring a Qatar-Bahrain handshake but no Saudi Arabia. * Inflation rose in Qatar (the highest, at 5.9%), Duba...

Kazakhstan macro: economy to strengthen in 2023 in the aftermath of steady growth in 2022
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 20 Jan 2023

The Bureau of National Statistics reported that the Kazakh economy performed quite well in 2022. It weathered several storms, such as protests in the early year, high exchange rate volatility in March-April triggered by Russia’s military activity in Ukraine, CPC disruption, and maintenance works ...

Webinar replay: Latin America Outlook 2023: Political risks and macro shifts
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Jan 2023

Going into 2023, how will the outlook for Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Peru be shaped by growth and inflation, fiscal and debt dynamics, and political risks? Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar "Latin America Outlook 2023: Political risks and macro shifts" for insight into ...

China’s tech crackdown is not over
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 20 Jan 2023

Shares in China’s technology sector have risen sharply due to a perception that the central government is relaxing its regulatory restrictions on the industry. This would be a mistake. Control mechanisms are in place that will hinder the industry’s growth. There are certain key sectors – namely, ...

President Lula will meet with the leaders of the three branches of government and Minister Múcio today, Minister Haddad and Lula will travel to Buenos Aires next week, and parties are forming alliances in Congress
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Jan 2023

Today, President Lula will meet with the leaders of the three branches of government and the Minister of Defense, José Múcio. The tone of the conversation should be one of alignment, especially within the military. Minister of Finance Fernando Haddad will travel to Buenos Aires with Lula next wee...

Will China’s property sector revive in 2023?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 20 Jan 2023 · 1 response

Special points to highlight in this issue: * After a terrible Year of the Tiger, the year of the Rabbit should be a year of recovery for the Chinese economy, driven by a partial reversal of last year’s contraction in consumption. I’ve been saying this for several months, however, and while I...

“Soft launch” for the Maharlika Fund
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 20 Jan 2023

In Davos for this week’s World Economic Forum (WEF), President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. had been busy making a pitch for investing in the Philippines. Bringing with him his economic managers and select members of congress, and with the country’s most prominent tycoons in tow, the message he conveyed...

EU proposes court to try Putin
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Jan 2023

On January 19 the EU Parliament overwhelmingly passed a resolution to create an international tribunal to prosecute Russian politicians and generals for aggression against Ukraine. The EU said this needs to be done because the International Criminal Court cannot try such suspects. The EU named th...

Government announces a debt buyback in an environment of ideological blinders
ARGENTINA · Report · 19 Jan 2023

Economic Minister Sergio Massa announced that the government would start a debt buyback program for Global Bonds, starting with a USD 1bn target for the short end of the curve, specifically for the Global 29 and Global 30. Given the recent peso weakness, in particular in the informal cash market ...

On spurious correlations, horses and carts
TURKEY · Report · 19 Jan 2023

As expected, the MPC kept the policy rate unchanged at 9% today, and began attributing the beginnings of a largely base effect-driven decline in inflation to its so-called “liraization” policies. The statement (link here) contained quite a few modifications compared to the last one, which we brie...

Minister Haddad returned to Brazil after three days of meetings in Davos, Lula gave an interview to Globo News yesterday, and Minister Marinho said that the minimum wage will remain the same until at least May
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Jan 2023

In one of his last meetings at the World Economic Forum, Haddad said that Brazil is getting closer to joining the OECD. But he stated that Brazil's accession process to the organization will still be reviewed. In an interview with Globo News, Lula criticized the autonomy of the Central Bank (BC) ...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 19 Jan 2023

The main event on the FX market at the beginning of the year was the decision of the Finance Ministry to start selling CNY from the National Wealth Fund, given that the budget revenues from the energy sector are likely to be lower than planned. The latter pushed the ruble up, and the exchange rat...

Ukrainian Interior Minister killed in chopper crash
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Jan 2023

On January 17 a helicopter carrying 14 officials crashed and all died. The crash appears to be unrelated to the war. The helicopter was sold to Ukraine by Super Puma from a range that was withdrawn years ago due to safety concerns. Russia has not claimed to have destroyed the helicopter. The Inte...

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