GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

The IMF March report projects 5% GDP growth for 2023 and 4% growth thereafter. Potential growth decreases to 4% from 6%, a result of the fall in total factor productivity in recent years. The weakness of taxation performance calls for a profound reform of the system and a revision of the size and...

Politics: AMLO, 4T and the economy score high in poll, despite discontent over security

MEXICO · Report · 04 Apr 2023

President López Obrador’s approval rating jumped to its highest since late 2020, perceptions of whether the country is on the right track were at their strongest since 2019, and support for prolonging AMLO’s governing project into the next presidential administration approached 50%, as did suppor...

Economics: Another month of mixed economic indicators alongside easing inflation

MEXICO · Report · 04 Apr 2023

Economic activity data for January and February delivered mixed results in the case of manufacturing and construction as have consumer and business confidence indicators, readings that reflect the extent of continuing momentum in some areas of the economy. At the same time, the country is faced w...

The politics of debt after the NPC

CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 04 Apr 2023

China is struggling with high debt. The weakest portion is concentrated in the local investment companies, Local Government Financing Vehicles (LGFVs), with an estimated 50 to 60 trillion yuan. They emerged from the 2009 financial crisis and have since become the principal support for the propert...

Massa prepares new measures amidst conditions set by the IMF Executive Board during the fourth review approval

ARGENTINA · In Brief · 03 Apr 2023

During the weekend the IMF Executive Board approved the fourth revision of the EFF, allowing an immediate disbursement of SDR 4bn (approximately USD 5.4bn). According to the IMF press release, “All quantitative performance criteria through end-December 2022 were met with some margin, supported by...

The OPEC+ April surprise

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 03 Apr 2023 · 1 response

* Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait and Oman are cutting production by -4.8% from May. * Four other OPEC+ members made similar commitments, and Russia extended its existing voluntary cut. * Overall, the actual cuts committed to are more than those announced in October. * Prices have rallied by about 6...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Apr 2023

Below we examine the political contradictions of the government and some details and implications of the new fiscal framework. A feeling of perplexity has crystallized about the behavior of President Lula and the paralysis of his government during its first three months, the “honeymoon” period...

Base effects continue, so does stickiness

TURKEY · Report · 03 Apr 2023

Consumer prices rose by a lower than expected 2.3% in March (vs. 2.7-2.8% consensus), with the 12-month rate thus easing further to 50.5%, from 55.2% in February, and a peak of 85.5% in October last year. Domestic producer prices rose very modestly by 0.4%, m/m, in the month, which led to a furth...

Pdvsa struck by earthquake

VENEZUELA · Report · 03 Apr 2023

After months of rumors as to the collapse of the government's stabilization program caused by an apparently unforeseen drought in oil revenues, an earthquake has struck Pdvsa. Aftershocks continue to be felt. It all started last January when Colonel Pedro Tellechea was named president of Pdvs...

The government may submit the new fiscal framework to Congress this week, the conflict in Congress regarding the analysis of provisional measures continues, and Bolsonaro to testify to the Federal Police about the jewelry he brought into the country

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Apr 2023

The government may submit a supplementary bill dealing with the new fiscal framework to Congress. As a supplementary bill, it will need 257 votes in the House and 41 in the Senate to be approved. The conflict between the House and the Senate regarding the analysis of provisional measures (MPs) co...

Markets will react to the rate decision bias

ISRAEL · In Brief · 02 Apr 2023

We currently expect a rate hike of 0.25% today (Monday) Inflation has remained sticky, surprising on the upside, and broad-based. Economic activity appears resilient (for now) and the labor market fairly tight. The BoI annual report noted that inflation being impacted by demand factors, and less ...

Policy reform notes

PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 02 Apr 2023

We turn our attention away from the banking turmoil in the west and look at some recent domestic policy developments. We find some of these good in terms of helping to improve the local investment climate, some less clear in terms of their economy-wide net benefit, and others, more distracting th...

Russia calls up 147,000 conscripts

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Apr 2023

On March 30 Putin signed the decree conscripting the 18-27 year olds for one year. Last year only 125,000 were called up at this time. The increase is said to be because the Defense Ministry has widened the parameters of those eligible. Men who would have been excluded for reasons of mental or ph...

Belarus calls for a truce in Ukraine

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Apr 2023

On March 31 the President Lukasheno called on the warring parties to call a truce without any preconditions. He warned of the risk of escalation. Lukashenko said that the issues ought to be agreed through talks. He said that Western arms shipments were raising the chance of a nuclear war. As Bela...

Russia: a brief market watch

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 31 Mar 2023

The ruble continued to depreciate in recent weeks as investors weighed the effects of the current turbulence in the US and European banking sector and the likelihood of an economic recession. If this assumption is correct, global energy prices may be under pressure. It may add problems to the Rus...