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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Armenia and Turkey reopen their border
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 30 Mar 2023

On March 24 Armenia said that the land border will open for the first time since 1993. At first only diplomats and people who are neither Turkish nor Armenian will be allowed to cross.  Planes can fly over Armenian airspace to Turkey and vice versa. However, there are no direct flights between th...

The first nickel IPO
INDONESIA · Report · 30 Mar 2023

An Indonesian nickel company, PT Trimegah Bangun Persada Tbk, is set for an initial public offering in April 2023. This will be the first Indonesian nickel company to go public, and it will certainly mark a milestone for the Indonesian Stock Exchange ever since the fanfare about the rise of the n...

IAEA chief in Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Mar 2023

On March 29 the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) visited Zaporizhzhia. This is the largest nuclear power station in Europe. Russia controls it.  The IAEA boss Rafael Grossi met Zelensky on March 27. Grossi has repeatedly warned that Zaporizhzhia could be the scene of a nuclea...

Major foreign grain exporter to stop buying Russian grain
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Mar 2023

On March 29 Cargill Russia announced that on July 1, 2023, it will cease the export of grain. Cargill is a major world agricultural commodity trader. The company has informed the Russian Ministry of Agriculture. Cargill is due to export 2.2 million tons of grains by July 2023. That is 4% of Russi...

The new fiscal framework may be presented this week, and the conflict in Congress regarding provisional measures continues
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Mar 2023

In a nod to Congress, Lula may ask Haddad to present the text of the new fiscal framework again to the president of the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), and of the Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), in addition to party leaders. In other words, the matter will not necessarily be announced this week. It...

Interest rates unchanged, ending off-market sales of FX to energy importers announced today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 28 Mar 2023

There was no surprise at today's rate-setting Monetary Council meeting: all interest rates, including the 18% sterilisation rate, the 13% base rate and the 12.5-25% interest rate corridor remained unchanged, as expected (see chart below). Yet an important change of policy was announced: the selli...

Decisive battle over Ukrainian south looms
UKRAINE · Report · 28 Mar 2023

The Russians failed to seize Bakhmut, despite the huge efforts they devoted to taking the town. The goal of Ukrainian forces was to exhaust the Russians as much as possible before the spring counter-offensive started. Sitting in defense in Bakhmut was a good position for the Ukrainian Army to cau...

Russia prepares new mobilization
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Mar 2023

Russia and the foreign media have reported since March 18 increasing signs of a call-up of military-aged men. In Udmurtia Region the Governor went on TV to convince people that no one will be conscripted but he asked men to volunteer ''to defend the Fatherland.'' In 2022 the conscription and the ...

Lasso's Situation Gets More Complicated
ECUADOR · In Brief · 27 Mar 2023

As expected, the Assembly submitted to the Constitutional Court the petition to initiate an impeachment of President Lasso.  This petition is based on the report presented by an ad-hoc legislative commission dominated by the opposition, in which Lasso was accused virtually of everything the Const...

A lull in the storm
ISRAEL · In Brief · 27 Mar 2023

Netanyahu announced on March 26 that the legislation (second and third Parliamentary votes) geared towards changing the judicial system will be postponed until the summer Parliament session in order to try to reach a broadly acceptable compromise. The opposition generally supported this move (alt...

Politics: Current electoral trends and the presidential succession
MEXICO · Report · 27 Mar 2023

With election campaigning officially set to begin in the State of Mexico and Coahuila gubernatorial races in the first few days of April, observers are closely watching the trends and outcome to consider their possible impact on the 2024 races, when the presidency, state, municipal and local gove...

The crisis in the legislature is hurting the government and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Mar 2023

Former President Jair Bolsonaro returns to Brazil. There will be a concentrated effort to vote on provisional measures in the House. On Friday, the STF will begin judgment of the preliminary injunction of the State-Owned Companies Law. This week's Talking Points: * The legislature is p...

Solid budgetary performance in 2M23
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 27 Mar 2023

Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Finance reported that in 2M23, the country’s consolidated budget was in surplus equal to KZT695 bn, i.e., slightly above $1.5bn. This budget incorporates the Republican and local budgets, the National Fund, and state social funds (net of mutual transfers). Revenues of the...

The War Against the Central Bank
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 27 Mar 2023

The Central Bank, aware of the need to keep monetary policy in restrictive territory, kept the SELIC rate at 13.75% at the last COPOM meeting, and stated that it will not hesitate to increase the rate if necessary. A level-headed analysis of the projections clearly shows that if the monetary auth...

Economics: Commercial banks look solid, but some non-bank banks may prove the soft underbelly
MEXICO · Report · 27 Mar 2023

Following the recent events involving a number of banks in the United States (the failures in short order of Silicon Valley Bank, Silvergate Bank and Signature Bank and financial problems at First Republic Bank) and in Europe (e.g., Credit Suisse and its sudden acquisition by UBS), speculation ha...

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