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Electoral campaigns will start on TV and radio on Friday, the first debate between presidential candidates will take place this Sunday, and Lula has started making moves toward groups that are closer to Bolsonaro
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Aug 2022

While having a good amount of TV time during the elections is important in communicating with voters, having the most TV time does not always guarantee electoral success, especially in presidential races. The presidential debate will be held jointly with Band, TV Cultura, UOL and Folha de S.Paulo...

A 0.5% rate hike more likely on Monday (today)
ISRAEL · Report · 22 Aug 2022

1. We expect a rate hike of 0.5% today (Monday) due to higher inflation and strong growth, offset by lower inflation expectations and a strong shekel. 2. The GDP in the second quarter of 2022 is 12% above that of pre-Covid (Q419). 3. Our inflation forecast stands at 2.4% NTM, with higher housin...

Western military aid to Ukraine slows
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Aug 2022

On August 19 the Kiel Institute published a study of Western aid for Ukraine. It concluded that in July 2022 aid to Ukraine fell dramatically. Most EU countries promised no additional aid that month. In July 2022 Ukraine received only USD 1.5 billion in new pledges of military and economic aid. U...

Russia closes gas pipeline to the EU for "maintenance"
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Aug 2022

On August 20 Gazprom announced that Nord Stream will be shut from August 31 to September 2. This will exacerbate energy shortages in the EU. Some suspect that this is the true purpose of the maintenance work. After maintenance work Gazprom said gas flow will resume at 33 million cubic meters per ...

0.5% rate hike more likely on Monday
ISRAEL · In Brief · 21 Aug 2022

A rate hike of 0.5% is expected on Monday for the following reasons * Inflation in July surprised sharply on the upside with core inflation accelerating to 4.7% y/y from 4.1% in June, due mostly to accelerating housing rental prices, as well as travel abroad costs. * Robust economic growth: GDP g...

GULF WEEKLY: Oman upgraded, Bahrain & Qatar see H1 surpluses, IMF proposes Saudi fiscal rules
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 19 Aug 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Hopes grew that Iran and the US will compromise to restore the nuclear deal. * Aramco achieved record profits but plans lower-than-expected capex this year. * IMF Article IV praised Saudi policy but urged it to maintain t...

Russian sovereign debt: The primary market may reopen in autumn
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 19 Aug 2022

The fiscal situation in Russia deteriorated significantly in the middle of the year, and we expect the nation’s budget deficit to reach R1.2-1.5 trln for FY22. Despite the fact that the main source of funding the deficit is the National Wealth Fund, we don’t rule out that the Finance Ministry may...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 19 Aug 2022

Aug 5 NC KMG: In 1H22 KazMunayGas increased oil production (including gas condensate) by 0.3% y-o-y and gas production by 0.8% y-o-y Aug 10 NCOC: Oil production has resumed at the Kashagan field, suspended due to a gas leak at one of the facilities Aug 11 Energy Ministry: Oil production at the Ka...

August data shows a still-struggling economy
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 19 Aug 2022

Special points to highlight in this issue: * The data releases this week and last week reaffirm the story of the past several months: the supply side of the economy is recovering slowly, thanks to aggressive fiscal and monetary support, while the demand side continues to struggle. * The P...

The TSE announced the TV times for each presidential candidate, Lula and Bolsonaro have started addressing their government plans, and the presidential candidates will be interviewed next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Aug 2022

Lula (PT) will have the longest time: 3 minutes and 39 seconds plus 286 30-second ads. President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) will be entitled to 2 minutes and 38 seconds and 207 ads. Lula said that the main Brazilian public companies will not be privatized. He cited Petrobras, Banco do Brasil, Caixa Econ...

Russia reinforces Kherson
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Aug 2022

Ukraine is building up forces for its stated objective to retake Kherson. Pundits doubt that Ukraine can retake it with infantry. However, Russia is moving in more troops to Kherson. Some of these are elite paratroopers. Russia now has about 20,000 troops in Kherson. Ukraine has taken villages ne...

Consumer prices continue to fall in August
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 18 Aug 2022

Rosstat reported that in seven days ending on August 15, consumer prices fell by 0.13% w-o-w bringing the MTD deflation to 0.23%. Inflation YTD fell to 10.72% Prices continue to fall across a wide range of products, albeit some selected protein-containing foodstuffs became more expensive, such as...

Kazakhstan macro: Economic growth slows as geopolitical uncertainty bites
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 18 Aug 2022

After Kazakhstan’s GDP grew in 1Q22 by 4.4% y-o-y, the Bureau of National Statistics preliminarily reported that in 1H22, the economy grew by 3.4%. If so, then it means that in 2H22, the GDP grew less than 2.5% y-o-y. It looks as though the economy continued to slow in July as well, as the short-...

The Datafolha poll is scheduled to be published today, Bolsonaro continues to make promises to the electorate, and the Federal Police asked for permission to indict Bolsonaro for spreading fake news about the COVID-19 vaccine
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Aug 2022

In Datafolha’s most recent poll, published on July 28, Lula had 47% of voters' intentions, and Bolsonaro, 29%. It will also publish polls for the three largest electoral states in the country, São Paulo, Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro. Bolsonaro said the government does not yet know what the sa...

Fanning the flames
TURKEY · Report · 18 Aug 2022 · 1 response

The Monetary Policy Committee surprised the markets --and us-- today by cutting the policy rate (one week repo) by 100 bps to 13%. There are a couple of revisions in the usual accompanying statement (link here), which, parenthetically, is about 100-150 words longer than the previous one (which is...

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