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Some changes in the ministerial team should soon take place. The goal is to improve the relationship with Congress. The ministries of Tourism and Communications will likely be changed. There are rumors in the market about Fernando Haddad replacing Rui Costa as Chief of Staff. Yesterday, the Worki...

The Federal budget in balance in April as spending moderated

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 07 Jun 2023

The Ministry of Finance reported that in 5M23, the federal budget deficit was almost the same as in 4M23 (R3.4 trln), implying that in April, it was balanced (in fact, there was a tiny surplus). Spending moderated last month as the ministry spent slightly over R2.0 trln. Average monthly spending ...

Industrial output fell further markedly in April

HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Jun 2023

Industrial output shrank by 2.5% mom, 5.6% yoy in April, on seasonally and day-adjusted basis, following a 3.8% yoy decrease in Q1. This marks a downtrend that has been there since an all-time peak of output in September 2022. The level of output was 8.6% lower in April than at the September peak...

Lula signed the MP on the Desenrola debt renegotiation program, the rapporteur on the fiscal framework is negotiating changes to the text, and the report on Tax Reform is expected to propose a dual VAT

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Jun 2023

President Lula finally signed the Desenrola provisional measure (MP), and it was published in the Official Federal Gazette today. The program will begin in July and will include debts registered up to December 31 of last year. The rapporteur for the new fiscal framework in the Senate, Omar Aziz (...

Digesting Boric's marathon speech

CHILE · In Brief · 06 Jun 2023

President Gabriel Boric delivered his second state of the union speech last week. These speeches tend to offer summaries of accomplishments and lists of promises for the future, often sprinkled with figures and statistics. There was some of that on 1 June – certainly a lot of promises. But it see...

Dam in Ukraine damaged possibly by Russia

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Jun 2023

On June 6 Kakhovka Dam was partly blown up. Videos of the damage were shown by Ukrainian and Russian bloggers. The dam is in Russian-held territory and is vital for supplying much of Ukraine, including Crimea, with potable water. It is close to a nuclear power station that is now possibly threate...

A rather poor but unsurprising retail sales figure in April

HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Jun 2023

Retail sales fell by 0.9% mom, 12.1% yoy on seasonally and day-adjusted basis in April. Previously, it decreased by 12.8% yoy in March and by 8.5% yoy in the whole of Q1. Overall, retail sales dropped by 10.4% yoy in the first four months of 2023. This sounds like a rather poor performance indeed...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Jun 2023

The avalanche of failures in the domestic political sphere and in the country’s positions in diplomatic questions requires a rearrangement. The luck of expanding GDP will not last long, and the negative effects of the fiscal-monetary conflict will persist. UNEXPECTED DEFEATS IN THE COUNTRY AND...

Russia says it has beaten off a Ukrainian counterattack

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Jun 2023

On June 4 the counterattack took place in the Donetsk Region of Ukraine. Russia annexed Donetsk in 2022. Russia said that there were attacks on five sectors of the front and claimed that mechanized and tank battalions had attacked. Russia published videos of Ukrainian vehicles being fired at. On ...

There will be a national holiday on Thursday (Corpus Christi), the Working Group on Tax Reform in the House will publish the guidelines for the rapporteur, and the STF will resume the trial on the time frame for indigenous lands

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Jun 2023

Due to the holiday on Thursday, Corpus Christi, this will be a shorter week of political activity. On Tuesday, June 6, the Working Group on Tax Reform in the House will publish the guidelines for the rapporteur, Deputy Aguinaldo Ribeiro (PP-PB). His report is expected to be presented around June ...

Ignore the headline, focus on core, services

TURKEY · Report · 05 Jun 2023 · 1 response

Consumer prices were unchanged over a month ago in May, thanks to pre-election free natural gas offer to households for a month, with the 12-month rate dropping to 39.6%, from 43.7% in April. Domestic producer prices rose modestly by 0.7% in the month, m/m, thanks, among others, to subdued energy...

The government of (incessant) change

COLOMBIA · In Brief · 05 Jun 2023 · 1 response

August 1994, right after Ernesto Samper’s inauguration as the new president of Colombia. His competitor, Andres Pastrana made public some tapes incriminating Samper’s campaign for allegedly having received $6 million from narcotraffickers to finance his campaign. 2023, 10 months after Petro’s ina...

Private consumption decelerates despite wage acceleration

ISRAEL · Report · 05 Jun 2023

1. Wage growth remains sticky, accelerating at an annual rate of 5%. 2. Private consumption growth has decelerated in recent months. 3. The shekel continued to weaken due to uncertainty regarding both the political and geopolitical outlook.

Private consumption decelerates despite wage acceleration

ISRAEL · In Brief · 04 Jun 2023

Wage growth accelerated in Q123 to an annual rate of 6.3% (trend data) from 3.5% in Q422. This wage growth was witnessed in several sectors, both in public sector (wage agreement in the educational sector) but in the private sector as well. Initial data for April point to wage growth of 5.1% y/y,...

Ukraine says it is ready for its counter offensive

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Jun 2023

On June 3 the Ukrainian President made the statement. He said that it would not be quick and there could be significant casualties. He said Ukraine did not have all the arms it wanted but it cannot delay any further. He has asked for armored vehicles in particular. He also wants more Patriot miss...