GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

In 2020 the World Bank stated that in Tajikistan “the risk of debt default is high." Ever since, this assessment has consistently carried through a variety of analyses undertaken both by IFIs and rating agencies. For example, in its most recent review of the economy, the WB re-affirmed its judgme...

A good, positive surprise from the MPC

TURKEY · In Brief · 23 Nov 2023

The CBRT/MPC raised the policy rate by 500 bps to 40% today, above the consensus forecast, including ours, of 250 bps (see chart). The statement also provides specific forward guidance now, which reads as follows (link here): “The Committee assessed that the current level of monetary tightness is...

Putin says he is open to peace talks

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Nov 2023

On November 22 Putin addressed the G20 Summit by videolink. He said that everyone needed to consider ways to end the war, which he called "tragic". He blamed Ukraine for refusing peace talks. It is true that since mid 2022 Ukraine has refused to talk until Russia withdraws from Ukraine, including...

Russia: a brief market watch

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 23 Nov 2023

As the federal budget was in surplus for the last three months, it acted as a liquidity absorber from the money market, which pushed short-term interest rates above the key rate. Since mid-November RUONIA fluctuated within the 15.01-15.08% range, while earlier in November it was more than 50 bps ...

Philippine macroeconomy: not exactly a Goldilocks scenario

PHILIPPINES · Report · 22 Nov 2023

The first three quarters' data on the Philippine output performance shows some recovery, although it would be difficult to achieve the lower end of the output target of 6-7 percent for 2023. Growth drivers are challenged on both the domestic and global fronts. Inflation for the first ten months r...

The CAE may vote on the offshore funds bill, Deputy Forte should submit his report on the LDO, and the STF is expected to adjudicate the ICMS cases

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Nov 2023

The Senate Economic Affairs Committee (CAE) may vote on the bill that deals with the taxation of offshore and exclusive funds and the sports betting bill today. The two proposals can also be put to a vote in the Senate Plenary. Deputy Danilo Forte (União Brasil-CE), is expected to submit his repo...

Winter is coming, but what kind?

TURKEY · Report · 19 Nov 2023 · 1 response

Last week’s main topic was the infighting in the high judiciary, which has blown over in a couple of days, without anyone grasping what it was all about. This week witnessed President Erdogan’s return to “wolf warrior” diplomacy, sniping at Israel relentlessly and managing to offend his hosts in ...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi hosts Gaza summit, Bahrain’s non-VAT revenue disappoints, Dubai orders 140 planes

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 17 Nov 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC and the IEA continued to diverge sharply on 2024 oil demand projections, by 1.4m b/d. * The Arab-Islamic summit on Gaza in Riyadh produced strong rhetoric but no substantive actions. * Iran has indicated that it does...

China’s external constraints

CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 17 Nov 2023

Special points to highlight in this report: * We continued to see a slow recovery in growth in October along with, far more importantly, a slight improvement in the quality of growth, as consumption growth for the year outpaced GDP growth. But as always, nothing fundamental has changed. *...

Bulgarian elections narrowly drive wedge with Russia

CIS POLITICS · Report · 16 Nov 2023

Among various EU members, Bulgaria has a close cultural and historical affinity with Russia, but the two countries’ politics have diverged over the post-Soviet period. In the context of the Ukraine war, as well as redrawn energy pipelines, we examine how events in internal politics in Bulgaria lo...

The current account surplus widens in 10M23

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 14 Nov 2023

The CBR’s preliminary report suggested that in October, the current account surplus was almost the same as in September ($11.2 bn versus $11.4 bn). In 10M23, the current account surplus widened to $53.8 bn. Such an improvement in Russia’s external balance occurred amid a higher Brent price and na...

Our inflation outlook hinges on a GL 44 renewal in April

VENEZUELA · Report · 14 Nov 2023

In October, inflation in Venezuela slowed to 5.7 percent in an interruption of its sustained upward trend seen in May–September. We project annual inflation in 2023 to reach 202 percent, down from 234 percent in 2022. October was an atypical month in that primary money (M0) contracted despite ...

In Ecuadorian politics you can fry snowballs

ECUADOR · In Brief · 13 Nov 2023

The ADN of Daniel Noboa has been able to reach an agreement with Revolucion Ciudadana and Partido Social Cristiano to conform a majority of 94 legislators.The Social Christians sum 18, and ADN contributes 25, after capturing additional 11 legislators. Albeit those names have not been disclosed ye...

The 2020 Depreciation, Foreign Exchange Flows and Trade Balance

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 13 Nov 2023

The minutes of the last COPOM meeting stated that “at upcoming meetings” the easing pace of 50 basis points per meeting will be maintained, so it is certain that the SELIC rate will be lowered to 11.25% at the meeting in January. However, thereafter the Central Bank will have to use the “art in t...

What are the implications of Jamaica’s first international domestic currency bond offer?

JAMAICA / BAHAMAS · Report · 13 Nov 2023

On November 3, 2023, the Government of Jamaica (GOJ) issued its first Jamaican dollar-linked international bond for J$46.6 billion, or roughly US $300 million. The seven year SEC registered bond had a coupon of 9.625%, and was issued at a slight discount for a yield to maturity of roughly 9.75%. ...