GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil slipped mid-week but rose after the debt ceiling deal and ahead of the OPEC+ meeting. * Iraq announced plans for a major road and rail corridor from the Gulf to Turkey and Europe. * The Saudi census showed a count of ...

Government deposits in Congress a Fiscal Responsibility Bill

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 02 Jun 2023 · 2 responses

Yesterday, the Ministry of Finance, on behalf of the Executive Power, deposited in the National Congress a Fiscal Responsibility Bill. The bill seeks to guarantee the sustainability of public finances. The fiscal rule states that annual primary spending growth rate must not exceed the expected in...

Economics: Data published in May tended to show continuing growth but at a slower pace

MEXICO · Report · 30 May 2023

While GDP for the first quarter (3.7%) came in 2bp lower than the preliminary figure published almost a month earlier, consumption and gross fixed capital formation figures for the first months of the year came in higher than expected, prompting us to upwardly revise our growth projection for 202...

The Bahamas announces income tax plan while finances improve

JAMAICA / BAHAMAS · Report · 30 May 2023

A couple of months ago, toward the end of the first quarter, the technocrats at The Bahamas Ministry of Finance appeared “jubilant” as they now all believed they had escaped the need for an IMF program. This optimism appeared to be driven by the strong tourism-led economic recovery and its impact...

Kazakhstan declines to join the Russia-Belarus Union

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 30 May 2023

On May 26 President Tokayev said that Kazakhstan would not be changing its status. Kazakhstan is a member of the Eurasian Economic Union. The other members are Kyrgyzstan, Armenia, Russia and Belarus. In 1999 Belarus and Russia formed the union state. They agreed to full reunification eventually....

Politics: De facto expropriation of section of rail line and the political decomposition it entails

MEXICO · Report · 30 May 2023

When Mexican Marines took control on May 19 of a 75-mile stretch of rail line operated by a subsidiary of Mexico’s second largest conglomerate, Grupo Mexico, the seizure was a form of expropriation as officials have never indicated when, if ever, they might return it. The takeover is part of Pres...

Russian macro: gradual de-Westernization is on the way

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 30 May 2023

As the Western countries decided to cut trade with Russia and oust it from the USD/EUR/GBP/JPY segment of the global financial system, Russian businesses shrugged their shoulders in bewilderment and gradually started looking for alternatives. Despite the various inconveniences caused by the fact ...

Analysis of the fiscal framework in the Senate and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 May 2023

The fiscal framework begins analysis in the Senate. Provisional measures that expire on June 1 may be put to a vote in the House and Senate, including the measure on the structure of the government. We expect the appointment of Cristiano Zanin to the Supreme Federal Court (STF). President Lula me...

Another encouraging growth figure

INDONESIA · Report · 30 May 2023

The Indonesian economy posted an encouraging result for Q1 2023 GDP growth at 5.03% Y/Y, slightly above the 5.01% annual growth rate of Q4 2022. Compared to the previous quarter, the economy contracted by 0.92%, which followed the normal pattern. The fastest sector of growth in Q1 2023 was transp...

Further tightening will be data dependent

ISRAEL · Report · 30 May 2023

1. Last week the shekel weakened sharply on concerns regarding geopolitical risks and the possible renewed unilateral judicial overhaul. 2. A weaker shekel will translate into higher inflation (we see a 15% pass-through). 3. Unless this trend is reversed, the likelihood of a rate hike in J...

Talks unlikely to restart soon

VENEZUELA · Report · 30 May 2023

Political signals are negative and point to a drawn-out conflict. Political actors are focused inward, trying to bolster their strength in advance of 2024 elections. These elections could end up a repeat of 2018, when the opposition was so fragmented it could not compete, and the government ha...

Monetary Policy and Fiscal Expansion

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 30 May 2023

Asked by an interviewer about the reasons for the Central Bank’s “stubbornness” in keeping the interest rate high, Campos Neto responded that a real interest rate for 10 years of around 6% a year has nothing to do with monetary policy, and is instead the fault of fiscal policy. Unfortunately, due...

Further tightening will be data dependent

ISRAEL · In Brief · 29 May 2023

Rates reach 4.75% with mixed signals Last week’s 0.25% hike was in line with expectations on the back of strong economic activity, a tight labor market and sticky/broad-based inflation above target. Following the rate hike, Governor Yaron was interviewed and conveyed a dovish message stating that...

Ready for another five years with the Chief?

TURKEY · In Brief · 28 May 2023 · 1 response

This is the first of several Market Briefs I shall be posting regarding Turkey’s historic election. It is brief and mostly aims at dispensing with the formality of notifying our audience about the results. There are three major uncertainties, which I need to resolve in the coming days in order to...

Russian city hit by drones

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 27 May 2023

On May 26 Krasnodar was attacked by two drones. This city is the deepest in Russia that Ukraine has attacked. It is 300 km from the border. The Governor of the Region made a statement saying that both drones had crashed and that there were no casualties. It was reported that a Ukrainian drone was...