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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Q4 GDP and December BOP data: no good, not bad
HUNGARY · In Brief · 14 Feb 2023 · 2 responses

Q4 GDP growth as reported this morning at -0.4% qoq, 0.9% yoy, following the downwardly revised -0.7% qoq, 3.7% yoy data for Q3. This means that the economy is now in the state of a technical recession, just as expected, despite the fact that the full-year growth rate was still 4.6%, because of t...

Economics: Employment in selected sectors remained weak at year-end 2022
MEXICO · Report · 13 Feb 2023

Some of the latest labor market indicators have given officials much to crow about. Formal sector jobs and pay continued to accelerate last year, with further improvements reported for January. But not all the numbers paint such a rosy picture. As informal employment soared amid the 2021 rebo...

Friction between the government and the Central Bank and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Feb 2023

The conflict between the government and the Central Bank is likely to continue. The PT directorate will meet on February 13 to discuss inflation and interest rates. Roberto Campos Neto gives an interview on the program Roda Viva. On Thursday, February 16, there will be a meeting of the National M...

Upward revisions for inflation and the exchange rate
VENEZUELA · Report · 13 Feb 2023

January 2023 data are telling us that current inflationary dynamics are strong. Inflation for the month reached 29 percent driven by an expansion in primary money in turn fueled by an atypical hike in public spending and weak central bank currency sales. Everyone’s talking about the minimum wa...

Populism, Inflation Target and Expectations
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 13 Feb 2023

With high inflation and clear evidence of slowing growth – which is nothing more than the cost paid to reduce inflation – President Lula has opened a campaign to increase the inflation target. With a discourse typical of a left-wing populist, he is accusing the Central Bank of protecting the elit...

Politics: Third-way option for 2024 emerges as tensions mount between AMLO and the Judiciary
MEXICO · Report · 13 Feb 2023

Efforts to build a new opposition force ahead of the 2024 elections took a new step on January 30 when a broad array of citizens and current and former politicians presented a platform that offers an alternative to both supporters of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s Fourth Transformation (...

This will be a quiet week due to next week’s Carnival holiday, the PT directorate will meet today to discuss interest rates, and Lula will launch several social programs this week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Feb 2023

This is the week before Carnival and, therefore, a relatively quiet one in Congress. The president of the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), will meet with party leaders to discuss the distribution of positions in the Permanent Committees of the House. Today there will be a meeting of the National Direc...

Russia is closing in on Bakhmut
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 13 Feb 2023

On February 12 the head of Wagner said that his fighters had taken a village a few kilometers from the center of Bakhmut. Ukraine has not denied this. That appears to be confirmatory silence. Bakhmut seems to have more a political rather than a strategic goal. There is rivalry between Wagner and ...

Stagflation ain’t over yet
CHILE · Report · 13 Feb 2023 · 2 responses

The Monthly Economic Activity Index (IMACEC) showed relatively favorable results in December. But given the adverse outlook for 2023, negative 12-month variations will continue in coming months. At the sectorial level, it is worth differentiating between cases where there were additional advances...

Probability of a 0.5% rate hike next week has increased
ISRAEL · Report · 13 Feb 2023

1. Shekel weakening continues on the back of uncertainty regarding the implications of the planned judicial reforms. 2. If this trend continues this week, a 0.5% rate hike next week will become increasingly likely. 3. We expect a fiscal deficit of 3.7% GDP this year, following a surplus las...

Probability of a 0.5% rate hike next week has increased
ISRAEL · In Brief · 12 Feb 2023

Uncertainty regarding the judicial reforms continue Last week, the shekel weakened by 3.2% against the dollar and by 1.2% against the Euro. The shekel continued to weaken in the FX option trading yesterday. Several international investment banks and economists have expressed concern regarding the...

The day the earth stood still
TURKEY · Report · 12 Feb 2023 · 1 response

The politics section starts with an assessment of human and material damage of the earthquake, which could reach staggering dimensions. It is sad that the state started the initial effort to survey the damage only Saturday. On Sunday, a renowned seismologist made the dire prediction that up to 70...

South Africa’s electricity supply shortages continue to cripple the economy while external headwinds intensify
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 10 Feb 2023

• Bonds: Similar to other emerging market assets, South African bonds were victim to the selloff underpinned by negative shocks to global financial markets largely driven by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, elevated and persistent inflation rates together with faster monetary policy tightening, slow...

GULF WEEKLY: Oil rallies on Russian cuts, PIF green bond, Saudi PMI rebounds
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 10 Feb 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil has rallied strongly to $86 on factors including Russian supply cuts. * The Saudi PMI rebounded strongly to 58.2 but Qatar’s sank further, to 45.7. * Saudi Arabia may issue bonds in euro and other currencies to refina...

The Central bank keeps its key rate unchanged
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 10 Feb 2023

The Central bank announced that the BoD decided to keep the key rate at 7.5%, having quoted that the economic situation currently looks better, and pro-inflationary risks remain relatively high. The CBR estimated that the Russian GDP was down by 2.5% in 2022, which encouraged the regulator to upg...

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