GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

The government celebrated the news that Standard & Poor's reported an improvement in Brazil's BB- rating, from stable to positive. When commenting on the report published by S&P, Haddad recognized the work of the president of the House, Arthur Lira, the Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco, and the Supreme Fe...

Economic performance in May: mixed results

KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 15 Jun 2023

The Bureau of National Statistics reported that the short-term indicator (a monthly proxy for an aggregate measure of the country’s economic activity) grew by 4.5% in 5M23 y-o-y, which looks decent. However, in 4M23 and 1Q23, y-o-y growth rates were higher – 5.5% and 5.1%. Amid significant base e...

May inflation: in line with our forecast

VENEZUELA · Report · 14 Jun 2023

As expected, inflation in May intensified as a result of wage increases, especially the 2,122 percent rise in the food bonus (cesta ticket). Public outlays rose by 22 percent for the steepest monthly jump seen so far this year. It pushed up the exchange rate. The central bank sold $210 million, f...

The CAE approved the payroll tax exemption extension yesterday, the State Finance Secretaries will discuss Tax Reform tomorrow, and the fiscal framework should be put to a vote in the Senate on June 21

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Jun 2023

As expected, the Economic Affairs Committee (CAE) approved a bill yesterday that extends the payroll tax exemption for 17 sectors of the economy for four years. The benefit ends in December. This was a defeat for the government. State Finance Secretaries scheduled a virtual meeting for Thursday t...

Budgetary performance seemingly improved in May

KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 13 Jun 2023

Kazakhstan’s Deputy PM and Finance Minister, Mr. Erulan Zhamaubaev, reported at a government meeting today that the country’s state budget (i.e., the republican and local budgets combined) was in decent shape as in 5M23 it accumulated “over KZT8.0 trln of revenues” which appeared about 3% over th...

Worst Fears Confirmed

ECUADOR · In Brief · 13 Jun 2023

Official candidates will be announced by the Electoral Council next August 6th, and the electoral race will start on August 8th, including a presidential debate that will take place on August 13th. Of the eight announced presidential and vice-presidential candidates, only Daniel Noboa and Veronic...

Economics: Continuing strength in hiring and wages may encounter obstacles later this year

MEXICO · Report · 13 Jun 2023

Various labor indicators as of the first quarter, as well as other measures through April, indicate that job growth remains high, a result consistent with the extent of the economic growth registered in the first quarter of 2023. Total employment expanded 4.3% in the first quarter of 2023 based o...

Iceland closes its Moscow embassy and Romania expels Russia diplomats

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Jun 2023

On June 10 Russia said it will react to Iceland's suspending the operation of its embassy in Russia. The Foreign Ministry said Iceland's act was anti-Russian. Iceland has announced that it will limit the activities of the Russian Embassy in Iceland. The two states still have diplomatic relations....

The STF should adjudicate the case on the PIS/Cofins taxes, the STF should also adjudicate the case on the national nursing salary floor, and negotiations on the fiscal framework continue

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Jun 2023

Today, the Supreme Federal Court (STF) should complete the judgment on the levy of PIS and Cofins taxes on financial income. Justice Dias Toffoli disagreed with the rapporteur, Ricardo Lewandowski. On Friday, the STF will also adjudicate in the virtual plenary the case that deals with the nursing...

Central Bank cuts rates as inflation falls into target range, and growth slows

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 12 Jun 2023

May offered many surprises. Monthly inflation was negative (-0.2%), which allowed interannual inflation, at 4.43%, to fall into the target range of 4 ± 1% per year. But the cost has been high: economic activity growth was just 1.2% y/y in January-April. The Central Bank's response was immediat...

Sharp shekel appreciation likely to prevent further rate hike

ISRAEL · In Brief · 11 Jun 2023

Fiscal data continues to support credibility in 2023, 2024 could be more problematic The fiscal deficit is gradually increasing as tax revenues decline, but the pace appears modest. The fiscal deficit reached 0.6% GDP in the last 12 months, up from 0.3% last month. Tax revenues are down 7.8% y/y ...

The current account surplus appears narrower than reported previously

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Jun 2023

The CBR published its updated estimates of selected items of the current account for 4M23 and the 5M23 data. It appears that reality now looks somewhat different relative to the previous perception. According to the CBR’s release a month ago, the current account surplus in April and 4M23 was $5.2...

Russia: a brief market watch

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Jun 2023

Some acceleration of inflation during the last week to 0.21% w-o-w caused some nervousness among investors. Given the previous moderately hawkish rhetoric of the CBR, many didn’t rule out that the regulator could have raised the key rate today. We didn’t see the necessity to do that, as overall C...

Finland expels 9 Russian diplomats

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Jun 2023

On June 7 Finland said that the diplomats were working in an intelligence capacity. Finland said this was a breach of the Vienna Convention. The Finnish Intelligence Service assessed the diplomats to be undercover intelligence officers and said the expulsions would seriously impair Russian intell...

Russian political/pandemic update: crises as usual

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 07 Jun 2023

It looks as though the mood of the Russian society was probably somehow shaken by drone attacks that occurred in several cities, including Moscow. Apart from that, May was a relatively quiet month for the majority of Russians (except for those living in the regions close to the Ukrainian borders)...