GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

The headline rate of CPI-inflation for December was reported at -0.3% mom, 5.5% yoy this morning. Core inflation was much stronger, at 0.2% mom and 7.6% yoy. Non-fuel inflation, which we also think is an important indicator, was 0.1% mom, 6.4% yoy. The yoy headline rate dropped sharply, from 7.9%...

UK Prime Minister in Kyiv

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Jan 2024

On January 12 Sunak made the unannounced visit. Like most leaders, he crossed the border from Poland and travelled by train. Sunak announced an aid package of USD 3.2 billion for 2024. This is USD 250 million more than 2023. Bear in mind that with inflation this is a small increase on 2023. Briti...

Politics: Opposition in need of new strategies as support slips despite widespread discontent with the incumbents

MEXICO · Report · 08 Jan 2024

As we continue our analysis of the latest GEA-ISA quarterly poll of registered voters, we see that while support for Claudia Sheinbaum remained largely unchanged at slightly above 50%, she grew her lead over Xóchitl Gálvez, for whom support fell by 4pp. The gap separating them widened from 19 to ...

Philippines inflation: establishing a downtrend?

PHILIPPINES · Report · 08 Jan 2024

The January 5 release of the December 2023 inflation rate report in the Philippines indicates another possible downtrend of the country’s price movements. The first episode occurred last year, when inflation fell from a peak of 8.7% in January 2023 and dropped consistently in the following months...

Could inflation surprise on the upside in 2024?

ISRAEL · Report · 08 Jan 2024

1. Policy rates were cut to 4.5% due to moderating inflation and a strong shekel; fiscal concerns were secondary. 2. We revised our inflation forecast up to 2.8% in 2024. 3. Higher shipping costs, pent-up demand, and a rebound in housing rentals are likely to push inflation higher.

Japan offers to fund Ukraine air defense

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Jan 2024

On January 7 the Japanese Foreign Minister made a surprise visit to Kyiv. She said that Japan will donate another USD 37 million so Ukraine can afford drone detection systems. These are important in air defense. The Foreign Minister's press conference was held in an underground bomb shelter due t...

Finance Minister Contreras resigns

PERU · In Brief · 04 Jan 2024 · 3 responses

This morning Finance Minister Contreras submitted his letter of resignation to President Dina Boluarte. In his letter he mentioned "lack of transparency," presumably from the presidency. Apparently, President Boluarte had been looking for a replacement since late December and had met with former ...

Largely good news on government finances

HUNGARY · In Brief · 04 Jan 2024 · 1 response

Yesterday's sale of $2.5bn of 12-year USD-denominated bonds by ÁKK was met by good demand, and pricing was significantly more favourable than a year ago. The new bonds were based on a $5.8bn book, and the yield came out at 5.74%, 180bps over the US Treasury bond expiring in November 2033. Last Ja...

Ukraine bombards Russian city

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Jan 2024

On January 3 Russia said that Belgorod was attacked by a Ukrainian missile. The city is close to the Ukrainian border and was hit by Ukrainian fire several times in December 2023. Russia regards these as terrorist attacks. Russia claims to have shot down a lot of Ukrainian missiles over Belgorod,...

Inflation ends 2023 at just under 65%

TURKEY · Report · 03 Jan 2024 · 1 response

Consumer price inflation was 2.9%, m/m, in December broadly in line with expectations, with the 12-month CPI inflation hence ending the year at 64.8%, up from 62% in November, which is in line with the CBRT’s latest forecast (mid-point %65) announced in the October Inflation Report. Monthly D...

Georgian breakaway region leases land to Russia

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Jan 2024

On December 27 the President of Abkhazia signed a law that transferred a Black Sea resort to Russia for 49 years. Abkhazia is recognized as an independent country by Russia. However, the international community recognizes it as Georgian territory. The Abkhazian parliament passed the law during an...

Officially estimated fiscal deficit just slightly below the 2022 actual, exceeds revised target

HUNGARY · In Brief · 02 Jan 2024

Meeting a legal requirement, the Finance Ministry published its revised macroeconomic forecast tables on December 31. In these, the Ministry estimated the annual general government deficit by Eurostat method at 5.9% of GDP, slightly below the 6.2% actual of 2022, and materially exceeding the revi...

2024 will begin without changes in the monetary policy interest rate

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 31 Dec 2023

The monetary policy interest rate will remain at 7.00% annually in the month of January 2024, while the rate of the permanent liquidity expansion facility (1-day Repos) will continue at 7.50% annually and the interest-bearing deposit rate (Overnight) will remain at 5.50% annually. The decision wa...

Major Russian aerial attacks on Ukraine

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Dec 2023

In the early hours of December 29 Kyiv, Lviv, Odessa, Dnipro, Kharkiv and other cities were hit by drones and missiles. Ukraine claimed the attacks targeted infrastructure and not military positions. They say a maternity hospital was hit. Cruise, hypersonic and ballistic missiles were fired. At l...

Ukraine claims to have sunk Russian warship

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Dec 2023

On December 27 Kyiv said the landing ship Novocherkassk was sunk by Ukrainian jets in the Russian port of Feodosia. Russia stated that the ship was damaged but did not state there were any casualties. A Russian Telegram channel said there were 77 sailors aboard the ship at the time of the attack....