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Several Ukrainian ministers resign over corruption allegations
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Jan 2023

On January 24, 5 regional governors and 4 deputy ministers resigned. Ukraine has been dogged by corruption since independence. Western allies have allocated billions of USD in aid and want to be sure that it will not be stolen. They have demanded progress on anti-corruption in return for aid. The...

Negotiations regarding the election in Congress take over Brasilia, Minister Haddad and President Lula are still in Argentina, and the investigations into the January 8 attacks continue
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Jan 2023

Despite the likelihood that Arthur Lira (PP-AL) and Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG) will be re-elected as presidents of the House and Senate, respectively, negotiations regarding the election are the priority in Brasília. Finance Minister Fernando Haddad is accompanying President Lula on a trip to Argen...

Russian Foreign Minister visits South Africa
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Jan 2023

On January 23 Sergei Lavrov met his South African counterpart for talks. South Africa is neutral in the Ukraine War. The country is quite pro-Russian because of Soviet help to the anti-apartheid movement. South Africa is the most powerful country in sub-Saharan Africa. Russia is keen to show that...

Big battles ahead, as economy hangs on foreign support
UKRAINE · Report · 23 Jan 2023

Since mid-December, most media attention has been focused on two small towns in Eastern Ukraine — Bakhmut and Soledar. The Russians have been intensively burning through their manpower in frontal attacks on both. By mid-January, Soledar had been captured by Russian forces, but in light of Russia’...

Flight Plan 2.0 and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Jan 2023

Lula and Fernando Haddad leave for Buenos Aires, where they will participate in the Summit of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States. They will then head to Montevideo, for a meeting with the president of Uruguay. Arthur Lira (PP-AL) meets with caucuses ahead of his re-election cand...

The Mistake of Raising the Inflation Target
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 23 Jan 2023

The necessary condition to achieve the goals of accelerating economic growth and improving the distribution of income is to enact micro and macroeconomic reforms. But this is only one condition, which depends on Congress. The other, which depends exclusively on the Central Bank and the fiscal aut...

Politics: Opposition on the right path to compete in 2024 but with major challenges ahead
MEXICO · Report · 23 Jan 2023

The opposition has taken a major step toward mounting a serious challenge in the upcoming elections as the PAN, PRI and PRD recommitted themselves in recent days to competing as a coalition. However, a number of crucial matters remain under discussion. During the Va por México news conference at ...

No interest rate measure is expected from the Monetary Council tomorrow
HUNGARY · In Brief · 23 Jan 2023

At the first regular monthly rate-setting meeting tomorrow, analysts uniformly do not expect any interest rate step, and indeed no significant policy change of any type. What they find potentially interesting could be the Council's communication, from which the investors might try to draw conclus...

President Lula and Minister Haddad have meetings in Buenos Aires, Lula will participate in the Celac meeting tomorrow, and Arthur Lira meets with parties to guarantee his re-election in the House
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Jan 2023

Today, President Lula begins his first international trip after taking office. He will meet with the president of Argentina, Alberto Fernández, and have other bilateral meetings. Brazil is expected to sign bilateral agreements and a memorandum of understanding with Argentina. Tomorrow, January 24...

Economics: Regional differences in economic activity and FDI flows
MEXICO · Report · 23 Jan 2023

It is well known at this point that economic growth in the third quarter of 2022 and during October was much stronger than anticipated thanks to greater dynamism in services and sustained rates of growth in manufacturing. But this week we turn our attention to the disparities in regional behavior...

Demand for workers slows, but remains elevated
ISRAEL · Report · 23 Jan 2023

1. The gap between job vacancies and the number of unemployed is gradually declining, but the labor market remains relatively tight. 2. Strong employment creation in December suggests that economic activity remains fairly steady. 3. In 2022, the BoI increased the Makam (T-bill) issuance sig...

Protests for Alexey Navalny to be freed
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Jan 2023

On January 21 demonstrations were held in 60 cities around the world in favor of the imprisoned Russian anti-corruption campaigner. Navalny has been in jail since 2021. Protestors also held placards readings, ''No war'' and ''Free political prisoners.'' There were demos in Moscow and many other R...

Demand for workers slows, but remains elevated
ISRAEL · In Brief · 22 Jan 2023

T-bills issuance surges in 2022 In 2022 the BoI issued 235bn in Makam due to strong demand. This was 95bn above net Makam redemption. Parallel to this, the BoI reduced the daily commercial bank deposits by a net 71bn. This net absorption was necessary due to the public sector contribution to mone...

Election milestones, ToS scenarios
TURKEY · Report · 22 Jan 2023 · 1 response

President Erdogan has more-or-less declared May 14 as the new date for elections and is expected to issue the executive decree abolishing the legislature during the second week of March. The first essay covers other important milestones on the way to elections, such the final dates to register as...

Some thoughts on the macroeconomics of 2023
TURKEY · Report · 22 Jan 2023

Our standard quarterly/forecast report would normally have reached your inboxes already, but because of the exceptionally fluid and uncertain context, politics in particular, we’ve been delaying it. Things are still extremely murky, but the economics author has nevertheless decided to think aloud...

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