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Kazakhstan macro: navigating between Scylla and Charybdis
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 23 Sep 2022

Even as Russia and a few other countries are heading toward a recession, Kazakhstan is doing relatively well this year – despite high inflation and some disruptions in the oil-and-gas sector caused by maintenance work in two main oil fields and problems with the CPC. The economic outlook looks de...

Three polls will be published today, Lula is unlikely to attend the debate tomorrow, and the STF begins judgment on whether the Difal can be collected this year
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Sep 2022

The Datafolha poll published yesterday shows an increase in Lula's advantage over Bolsonaro. Lula rose from 45% to 47% and now has a 14-point advantage over Bolsonaro, according to the institute. The President remained stable at 33%. Ciro Gomes has 7%, and Simone Tebet, 5%. Lula is unlikely to at...

GULF WEEKLY: Rates hiked, MBS mediates Russia prisoner release, UAE and Oman GDP
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 23 Sep 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Gulf states hiked interest rates by 75bp, bar Kuwait, which only raised by 25bp. * Oil slipped to the lowest since January despite a record shortfall in OPEC+ production. * There was no progress towards an Iran nuclear de...

Another 75-basis point repo rate increase by the South African Reserve Bank despite slowing inflation
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 22 Sep 2022

Staying its course of policy normalization, the South African Reserve Bank hiked the benchmark interest rate by another 75 basis points during the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) September meeting. With the repo rate climbing to 6.25% from 5.5%, the prime lending rate also increases, to 9.75% f...

Another 100 bps cut from the CBRT
TURKEY · In Brief · 22 Sep 2022

The CBRT/MPC cut the policy rate (one-week repo) by another 100 bps to 12% (simple) today. While this wasn’t the consensus expectation, we are not terribly surprised, as we had given more than even odds to such a move (see last Sunday’s Tracker). The MPC statement is almost identical to the previ...

A third 50bps
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 22 Sep 2022

Following the US Fed’s third outsized rate increase of 75bp yesterday, the Monetary Board in its regular meeting today responded with its third 50bp increase for its set of policy rates. Today’s move brings the key overnight RRP rate to 4.25% compared with the fed funds target rate of 3% to 3.25%...

The income tax rate for those abroad with income from investments in Brazil has been zeroed, Bolsonaro called for his supporters to hold motorcycle parades on the eve of the election, and Lula is expected to attend the debate on Saturday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Sep 2022

Today, provisional measures were published in the Federal Official Gazette reducing the income tax rates to zero for those residing or domiciled abroad that have income from investments in Brazil. The goal is to equalize the tax rates in order to expand the access of Brazilian companies to foreig...

How will weaker export growth affect the Chinese economy?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 22 Sep 2022

Special points to highlight in this issue: * Cargo rates for the rest of the year seem to be coming down sharply ahead of the Christmas holiday, suggesting that export growth may be declining rapidly because of weaker expected demand from the US and Europe. I have no way of knowing whether or ...

Pro-Russian rebels release 10 foreigners
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Sep 2022

On September 21 the pro-Moscow Forces unexpectedly freed Britons, Croats, Americans, a Moroccan and a Swede. The ten men had been accused by the pro-Russian Donetsk People's Republic administration in East Ukraine of being mercenaries. Some of them had been sentenced to death. The men were freed ...

Bolsonaro expected to attend the debate on Saturday but not Lula, today Lula should meet with the U.S. charge d’affaires, and tomorrow the government publishes the budget and financial programming decree
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Sep 2022

The debate held by CNN, Veja, SBT, O Estado de S. Paulo, NovaBrasil FM and Earth will take place on Saturday. Lula said he intends to go to the TV Globo debate, scheduled for September 29. The exchange of criticisms between Lula and Bolsonaro is increasing in the final phase of the campaign. Toda...

Putin calls for "partial mobilization" – an extra challenge to deal with
UKRAINE · In Brief · 21 Sep 2022

Well, we are moving to the "next level" of the war. Until Sept 21st, 2022, the Russian population was observing the invasion from the outside of the field, just cheering their team. Sanctions created some minor inconveniences but it’s nothing compared to the hardships Ukrainians had to pass throu...

Putin announces partial mobilization
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Sep 2022

On September 21 the president said that 300,000 men will be called up. He said that NATO countries had used nuclear blackmail against Russia. Putin reminded the world that Russia possesses nuclear weapons, too. He warned that if Russia's territorial integrity was threatened then Russia would resp...

Russian macro: Economic performance in 2022 exceeds gloomy expectations, future trends remain uncertain
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Forecast · 20 Sep 2022

On September 16, the Russian Central Bank decided to cut its key rate by 50 bps and brought it down to 7.5%. The regulator mentioned that Russia’s economic performance in 2022 looks better, so far, than had been expected earlier and announced that it will publish an updated macroeconomic forecast...

Hurricane Fiona strongly impacts the eastern and northeastern provinces of the country
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 20 Sep 2022

Hurricane Fiona made landfall in the Dominican Republic early Monday with winds of 150 kilometers per hour. It had a strong impact on east and northeast regions, mainly affecting the provinces of La Altagracia, El Seibo, Hato Mayor, Samaná, Duarte and María Trinidad Sánchez. So far there has been...

Lula met with former presidential candidates yesterday, Bolsonaro will deliver the opening speech at the UN General Assembly, and Pacheco and Guedes met yesterday to discuss the national nursing salary floor
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Sep 2022

Henrique Meirelles's presence at Lula’s meeting has fueled speculation in the market that he could become the Minister of Economy if Lula is elected. As of now, the goal of the meeting was to show that Lula is capable of holding a conversation with everyone. President Jair Bolsonaro will deliver ...

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