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Important news for the forint: deferred payment agreed with Russia on gas imports
HUNGARY · In Brief · 04 Oct 2022

The following was announced by Economy Minister Márton Nagy yesterday, causing the forint to strengthen in late trade and this morning. Hungary and Russia agreed that for all natural gas imported by Hungary in the six months between October and March 2023, payments will be deferred for the portio...

Three Market Brief-“lets” in one: Table of Six, Halkbank case and natural gas from Russia
TURKEY · In Brief · 03 Oct 2022 · 1 response

Depending on one’s predisposition towards living dangerously, waking up in Turkey could be a joyful occasion or a nightmare. There is certainly a lot going on, which I try to briefly analyze in this market brief. In a nutshell, the leaders’ summit of the main opposition alliance, Table of Six, un...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Oct 2022

ELECTIONS IN BRAZIL, GLOBAL DECELERATION AND A SEEMINGLY INTRACTABLE WAR – Despite the campaign urging protest votes in favor of Lula, the result of 48.4% for Lula and 43.2% for Bolsonaro provided definition of the second round, on October 30th. The votes for Simone Tebet (4.2%) and Ciro Gomes (3...

Politics: AMLO caught in the crossfire between the Army, prosecutors and the families of the disappeared
MEXICO · Report · 03 Oct 2022

The events of a September eight eight years ago in which 43 protesting students were hunted down, abducted and murdered in and around Iguala, Guerrero, has emerged as a major point of contention pitting the presidency, the country’s Armed Forces and the Office of the Attorney General (FGR) agains...

Russia political/pandemic update: raising the stakes beyond the point of no return
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Oct 2022

September appeared to be another very peculiar month in Russia as after seven months, the country’s “military operation” in Ukraine abruptly turned into something very different when partial mobilization was announced and the country’s authorities recognized the Donbas region together with some n...

Russian gas supplies to Europe slow
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Oct 2022

On October 2 Gazprom said it could not send gas to Austria for technical reasons. This is usually the excuse used when supplies are stopped for political reasons. The new right-wing government coming to office in Italy offers hope to Russia. It is composed of parties that say Italy should not suf...

Economics: Evidence of increasing growth in recent months even as other issues loom over the economy
MEXICO · Report · 03 Oct 2022

Economic news last month showed continuing growth that prompted us to raise our year-end GDP estimate at the same time as we are raising our inflation and interest rate projections. Although most of the broader readings of economic activity consisted of lagging indicators, both the the second qua...

Consumer lending grew strongly in August but may decelerate or even stagnate in 4Q22
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 03 Oct 2022

The CBR reported that consumer lending was on the rise as total credit granted by banks to households grew in August by 1.1% m-o-m and reached R27.4 trln. It was the second consecutive month that consumer credit increased (it grew by the same 1.1% m-o-m in July). In the two preceding months, it r...

The European gas battle continues
HUNGARY · In Brief · 03 Oct 2022

President Biden was right: should Russia invade Ukraine, the Nordstream 2 gas pipeline would not work at all. For sure, Nordstream 1 and 2 were made inoperable for a very long time, and possibly forever, by a series of blasts observed on September 26-27. Politically, this has removed the option f...

BoI hikes by 0.75%, in line with expectations
ISRAEL · In Brief · 03 Oct 2022

Aggressive tightening continues due to broad based inflation The Bank of Israel hiked today by 0.75% to a level of 2.75%. The monetary statement noted that inflation is broad based and increasingly apparent in non-tradeable prices (mostly services) which continued to accelerate to 5.1% y/y in Aug...

POGOs: What’s at stake?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 03 Oct 2022

We momentarily turn our eyes away from the turmoil in financial markets and take a look at the uproar in the online gambling industry. Called POGOs, short for Philippine offshore gaming operators, the industry is akin to business process outsourcing (BPO) in that firms set up bases in the Philipp...

The election will be decided in a runoff between Lula and Bolsonaro, Lula had a 5.23% lead over Bolsonaro, and the candidates are preparing their campaigns for the runoff round
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Oct 2022

Former President Lula’s advantage in the first round was much lower than the polls suggested – some institutions predicted a double- digit difference between the votes received by the two leading candidates. At the end of Election Day, Lula was in the lead by only 5.23%. Some aspects of the race ...

Inflation increases further in September, has yet to peak
TURKEY · Report · 03 Oct 2022

Consumer prices rose by a lower than expected 3.1%, m/m, in September, compared with consensus forecasts of 3.6-3.7% (and our forecast of 3.4%), but the 12-month rate nevertheless rose further to 83.5% from 80.2% in August. Parenthetically, this is the sixteenth consecutive month of increase in C...

A 0.75% rate hike today appears slightly more probable
ISRAEL · Report · 03 Oct 2022

1. We view a 0.75% rate hike today as slightly more probable than 0.5%. 2. We expect the BoI policy rate forecast to be revised higher, to 3.5%-3.75% in the third quarter of 2023. 3. Recent indicators (credit card purchases) point to some deceleration in private consumption growth.

Everything, everywhere, all at once
COLOMBIA · Report · 03 Oct 2022 · 2 responses

Pension reform was one of President Gustavo Petro’s key campaign issues. He emphasized increasing coverage of the old-age protection system, and diverting to Colpensiones, the public pay-as-you-go system administrator, the bulk of current contributions to mandatory private pension funds. Implem...

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