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Lula will try to finalize Ministerial Reform by the end of the day today, the House approved the Desenrola bill yesterday, and the House also approved the urgent status of the ICMS compensation bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Sep 2023

Ministerial reform remains stalled. The Ministry of Ports and Airports will be given to the Republicanos party. The PP, however, is reluctant to accept the Ministry of Sports. The party sees the offer as a consolation prize. Yesterday, the House approved a bill that creates the Desenrola program,...

A strong start for September: retail sales and ÁKK
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Sep 2023

To their credit, the government's various branches are not leaving much time for investors to feel bored about Hungary. First, July retail sales was reported this morning. In volume terms, on sda basis, sales fell by 0.2% mom and 7.8% yoy, after a 8.1% yoy drop in June. January-July was a rather ...

Kazakhstan to hold referendum on nuclear energy
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Sep 2023

On September 1 Tokayev delivered a keynote speech in which he said the country would decide whether or not to build nuclear energy. Nuclear energy is a controversial topic in former Soviet countries because of Chernobyl. Kazakhstan has plenty of oil, gas and coal so why does it need nuclear energ...

Firing across ceasefire line kills Armenians
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Sep 2023

On September 1 the exchange of fire killed 3 Armenian soldiers. A blockade of an Armenian controlled area has been ongoing for months. This has led to several people dying due to a lack of medicine. Azerbaijan is blockading the area.  Russia denies that it has lost interest in Armenia. Armenia is...

Russian macro: The new reality—looking at what kind of economy emerges in Russia
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 05 Sep 2023

Rosstat reported that the output of the five basic sectors grew by 3.6% y-o-y in 7M23, and in July alone it was up 7.1% y-o-y. There numbers don’t look extraordinary amid last year’s low base effects but rather indicate that the economy is doing relatively well despite some signs of a deceleratio...

Politics: Criminal violence continues largely unabated, at a heavy cost to individuals and entire swaths of the economy
MEXICO · Report · 05 Sep 2023

Although the number of intentional homicides has been falling somewhat in recent years (from a peak daily average of 100.7 in 2020 to 94.8 at last count), the tally remains shockingly high. In fact, in the four and a half years since President López Obrador took office, and facing a little over a...

Pithy data commentary
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 05 Sep 2023

We comment on key data and news events in the Caucasus and Central Asia: Armenia: Monthly economic indicator slows in Jul to 6.0 percent YoY, but remains consistent with our full-year 8.0 percent GDP forecast Armenia: S&P upgrades Armenia to BB- Armenia: Fresh tensions in Nagorno-Karabakh poi...

Cuba claims that Russia has recruited Cubans to fight in Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Sep 2023

On September 5 Cuba announced that it has uncovered a network that persuades Cubans in Russian to volunteer for combat in Ukraine in return for Russian citizenship. Cuba has launched a criminal investigation. Cuba considers this mercenary activity, which is unlawful. Russia has not responded to t...

Lula is expected to finalize Ministerial Reform by tomorrow, the House approved the urgent status of the CMN bill, and the deadline for submitting edits to the investments MP ended yesterday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Sep 2023

President Lula is advancing in the negotiations on Ministerial Reform to give government positions to the PP and Republicanos parties. The PP should be given the Ministry of Sports and the Republicanos, the Ports and Airports Ministry. Yesterday, the House approved the urgent status of Bill 2685/...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 05 Sep 2023

The approval of the fiscal framework and the first round of the tax reform have left “debts” that have been negotiated in a type of arm-wrestling match between Lula and Lira, with results increasingly favorable to the latter’s objectives, as expected. The retribution for the approvals has entaile...

Economics: GDP growth remained solid through 2Q, with robust secondary sector and GFI data
MEXICO · Report · 05 Sep 2023

GDP growth remained solid through the first half of the year even as the second quarter expansion proved to be marginally less pronounced than analysts had projected and Inegi had calculated in the preliminary estimates it released at the beginning of August. First quarter GDP was also revised ma...

Musical chairs and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Sep 2023

The September 7 holiday will slow activity in Congress. The government submitted provisional measures on the taxation of exclusive funds and tax credits arising from the subsidy for the implementation or expansion of economic endeavors. President Lula travels to India for the G20 meeting. This...

Anemic Growth Outlook
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 05 Sep 2023

For all of 2023, the Venezuelan economy is heading for the anemic growth rate of just 3 percent. Although, after seven continuous years of decline, GDP grew 13 percent in 2022, it lost steam in the second half of 2022 and, at the start of 2023, it faced headwinds. In the second quarter of this ...

August inflation back above 5%
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 05 Sep 2023

Analysts had expected a higher inflation rate for August but the actual number, 5.3%, exceeded the median 4.9% forecast. The relatively sharp 1.1% month-on-month increase in prices can be traced largely to the 2.4% rise in food prices, reflecting notably a 4.9% increase in rice prices, the first ...

Putin meets Turkish President
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Sep 2023

On September 4 he met Erdogan in Sochi, Russia. The meeting had originally been planned to take place in Turkey but the Russians insisted on hosting it. Erdogan wants to convince Putin to revive the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI). Russia said it will only revive the deal if sanctions on Russia...

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