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Polls on the runoff round have already been published, Senator Marcos do Val has gathered enough signatures to open a CPI on the polling institutes, and the next presidential debate will be held on October 21
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Oct 2022

A new PoderData poll on the presidential election was published. According to the poll, former President Lula has 52% of the valid votes and President Jair Bolsonaro has 48% — a gap of only four percentage points. Yesterday, Senator Marcos do Val (Podes-ES) said that he had gathered 29 signatures...

The Head of the Central Bank Kyrylo Shevchenko resigns amid corruption charges filed
UKRAINE · In Brief · 06 Oct 2022

On October 4th late in the evening there came out shocking news. The Head of the NBU Kyrylo Shevchenko decided to resign "due to health reasons". This move was really surprising and rumors spread that the Chief of Staff Andriy Yermak finally managed to promote for this post his protégé Andriy Pys...

Gulf states will bear almost all the OPEC+ cut in November, reducing their output by -5%
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 05 Oct 2022

• The true cut will be less than half the stated 2m, given underproduction by most OPEC+ members. • Still, this will push the oil market into a deficit of about -1m b/d in Q4, according to OPEC's most recent published forecasts. • The Gulf states will cut by -5% m/m but this could be offset by ...

MNB accepted a very large amount of 2-month deposits over BUBOR
HUNGARY · In Brief · 05 Oct 2022

A 2-month deposit tender, the first of its kind, was held by the MNB today. The Bank accepted HUF2093bn of bids on this occasion, a very large amount compared to the roughly HUF10000bn of total banking sector liquidity. Some domestic sources regarded this amount as surprisingly big. But pricing i...

September inflation climbs to 6.9%
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 05 Oct 2022

Local prices continued to increase in September, climbing 0.4% mom and 6.9% yoy. The headline rate itself is unsurprising, falling within the BSP’s 6.6% to 7.4% forecast for the month. Fish, sugar and flour-based products were the main contributors to food price inflation while electricity prices...

Ciro Gomes and Simone Tebet will support Lula’s candidacy, Bolsonaro should be supported by Sergio Moro and Romeu Zema, and free electoral advertisements on TV and radio will resume on Friday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Oct 2022

Ciro Gomes will follow the PDT's decision and support Lula. The Cidadania and Senator Simone Tebet will also support Lula. Jair Bolsonaro received support from Romeu Zema and Rodrigo Garcia. He also received support from Sérgio Moro. Bolsonaro said that the former judge "revealed the extent of co...

September's headlines: Q2 macroeconomic results, Odebrecht and the ILO pension evaluation
PANAMA · Report · 05 Oct 2022

September's headlines were judicial and financial: (1) the end of the Odebrecht preliminary hearing and its possible outcome next year; and (2) the much-anticipated ILO evaluation of the financial conundrum of the defined benefits pension program (SEDB) administered by the Social Security Agency ...

Inflation accelerates in September, prompting the National Bank to raise rates
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 05 Oct 2022

Kazakhstan’s Bureau of National Statistics reported that inflation reached 1.8% m-o-m, 15.4% YTD, and 17.7% y-o-y in September. Even though the September figure was higher than expected, price increases differed across segments of the consumption basket. Food items became more expensive by 1.2% m...

Russia moves nukes in a warning to the West
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Oct 2022

Western analysts said on October 3 that Russia has moved nuclear-capable assets. On September 30 the US Pentagon said it had not observed any movements of Russian nuclear forces. The US was fairly relaxed about Russian nuclear rhetoric. On October 2 an Italian newspaper reported that NATO observe...

Ukrainian forces gain more land in the South and North
UKRAINE · In Brief · 04 Oct 2022

Ukrainian forces keep advancing fast. Over the recent days there was substantial progress in the South near Kherson. Also the Ukrainian army continues to advance in the Luhansk area after retaking Lyman. Near Kherson Ukrainian forces managed to break the frontline a few days ago along the Dnipro ...

Russian macro: economy challenged by geopolitics and deteriorating demographics
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 04 Oct 2022

According to Rosstat, the output of the five basic sectors (industry, agriculture, construction, trade, and transport) in 8M22 was down y-o-y by 1.8% and 0.4% in August and 8M22, therefore, indicating that the economy was heading to moderate conduction in 2022 as a whole. In the current geopoliti...

Not much is going according to his plan
VENEZUELA · Report · 04 Oct 2022

Good news is in short supply for an economic policy framework reliant on restoring confidence in Maduro and his team’s capacity to a keep a tight grip on national affairs. The odds that the year will end on an optimistic note are deteriorating. The sharp bolivar sell-off that occurred in Augus...

The parties will begin to position themselves ahead of the runoff round, the president of the Caixa will give an interview about Auxílio Brasil today, and at least five polls on the presidential election will be published this week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Oct 2022

The PDT is expected to support Lula. The Cidadania, which supported Simone Tebet's candidacy for the Planalto Palace, has already signaled its support for Lula. Former President of the PSDB and Senator Tasso Jereissati (CE) declared his support for the PT candidate yesterday, October 3. The payme...

The future of China after the 20th Party Conference
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 04 Oct 2022

The Party conference on October 16 is likely to solidify Xi Jinping’s power. How much power will depend on who is appointed to senior positions. It is important to watch closely whether younger potential successors are named to the standing committee and other related positions. The degree of Xi’...

Essential CIS Politics: October 2022
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 04 Oct 2022

• Russia has ordered at least 300,000 reservists to be mobilized. Flights to Serbia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Georgia, the UAE, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, countries Russians can enter without a visa, sold out quickly after the announcement. Many young men are desperate to go ...

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