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Germany giving 178 Leopard 1 tanks to Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Feb 2023

On February 7 the German newspaper Der Spiegel announced the surprise move. Germany had been very reluctant to allow even foreign armies to give German made tanks to Ukraine. Now Germany is giving tanks from its own army's stocks. 178 is far more than was previously considered likely. Most of the...

Robust industry and poor retail sales must be good for the BOP
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Feb 2023

Another key piece of statistics after yesterday's poor retail sales number has been the release of the preliminary December industrial output data, with positive growth of 3.8% mom, 5.5% yoy on seasonally and calendar-adjusted basis. Note: Volume data, December 2015 = 100; Source: KSH At this sta...

Lula once again criticized the Central Bank, Minister Haddad discusses the provisional measure regarding the CARF, and the government looks to make progress on Tax Reform
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Feb 2023

At Aloizio Mercadante's inauguration as president of the Brazilian Development Bank (BNDES), Lula made statements that were not well received by the market. He once again criticized the Central Bank due to the level of interest rates. Yesterday, Finance Minister Haddad, the Minister of Institutio...

The death of China sourcing
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 07 Feb 2023

Global corporations are shifting their supply chains from China to other countries due to China’s Covid policies, rising state control, and concerns about deteriorating US-China relations. The top destinations are India and Vietnam. Much attention has been paid to the impact of the potential loss...

Azerbaijan arrests scores of suspected Iranian spies
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Feb 2023

On February 1 about 40 people were arrested and accused of espionage and using Islam to promote a pro-Iranian message. Most of them are Azerbaijanis. The suspects were in Baku and other cities. Iran has not commented on the arrests. Relations between Azerbaijan and Iran are often fractious. Thoug...

Russian Foreign Minister visits neutral countries
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Feb 2023

Sergei Lavrov visited Iraq on February 6 and Mali on February 7. Both countries abstained in the UN on the Ukraine War. Mali is fighting against Islamist rebels. Wagner Group had been helping Mali in this fight. Russia claims the Wagner fighters are training the Malian Army. The United Nations ac...

Inflation is a problem
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 07 Feb 2023

A particularly strong 1.7%[1] month-on-month (mom) jump in consumer prices sent the headline inflation rate to 8.7% in January, the highest since late 2008. The surprise inflation outturn is above analysts’ forecasts (median 7.6%) as well as the BSP’s (7.5-8.3%). About 60% of the increase in mom ...

This map will help you comprehend the geographical scope of the disaster and why little can be done
TURKEY · In Brief · 07 Feb 2023 · 1 response

Source:  FT, link here

Earthquake: This disaster will reformat Turkey, full stop
TURKEY · In Brief · 07 Feb 2023 · 2 responses

It is my job to make sense of this calamity, to write a few words that go beyond shock and pain, that describe the losses which mount with each passing moment, to make predictions, even if very tentative. All I can say at this juncture is that this is truly a Black Swan event, which will complete...

The Federal budget deficit explosively widens in January
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 07 Feb 2023

The Ministry of Finance reported that the federal budget deficit reached R1.760 trln in January, i.e., over half of the annual target, as revenues and expenditures accounted for R1.356 trln (5.2% of the 2023 plan) and R3.117 trln (6.1% of the target). Usually, January budgetary statistics are not...

Economics: Officials boast of strengths in 2022 public finance results despite points of concern
MEXICO · Report · 06 Feb 2023

This week we analyze the main aspects of 2022 federal public sector finances and their implications. There were no real surprises in the public finance report for the fourth quarter of 2022 the Ministry of Finance released last week as it showed no deviation from the main trends in public sector ...

Russia political/pandemic update: back to 1984
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Feb 2023

Unsurprisingly, the conflict between Russia and NATO/West has continued to escalate, albeit still verbally, so far. It has been almost a year since the events in Ukraine unfolded, and in some sense, it has become routine for many outside observers, i.e., people not affected directly or affected l...

Correistas are back
ECUADOR · In Brief · 06 Feb 2023 · 1 response

Elections for local authorities – city mayors and provincial dignities - held yesterday showed a strong comeback from the Correistas who won Quito, the province of Pichincha, Guayaquil and the Province of Guayas, among other smaller cities. Pavel Munoz, the new mayor of Quito, will exercise his a...

Ukrainian Defense Minister fired
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Feb 2023

On February 6 Oleksiy Reznikov was fired as President Zelensky announced this decision. The chief of military intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov, is expected to take his place. There have been corruption allegations around Reznikov. It is rumored that Reznikov is going to be appointed Minister for Stra...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Feb 2023

Just over a month since taking office, Lula has begun indicating what he intends to accomplish in his third term. What has emerged is not the statesman who promised to unify the country around an inclusive development project in his inaugural address. Instead, he has rapidly returned to feeding t...

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