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NATO chiefs condemn Russian annexation as mobilization stalls
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Oct 2022

On October 2 the presidents of 9 Eastern European NATO nations issued a denunciatory statement regarding the Russian claim that four Ukrainian districts are now an integral part of Russia. They said that the referendums were illegal and null. They stated that they would never accept that these di...

Peru’s mid-term elections: a major defeat for President Castillo
PERU · In Brief · 02 Oct 2022

Today, Peru elected regional and local authorities--Governors and Mayors. This was the first-time voters went back to the ballots since the July 28, 2021, election when President Castillo was elected. From the first exit polls released today at 5pm (new results are due tonight at 10pm Lima time),...

A 0.75% rate hike today appears slightly more probable
ISRAEL · In Brief · 02 Oct 2022

Today’s rate decision will surely be a rate hike, the question is whether 0.5% or 0.75%. What will support a more moderate rate hike of 0.5%? *  The last CPI print came in below expectations, reaching -0.3% m/m compared to expectations of -0.1% to -0.2%. Food prices came in below expectations (-0...

Armenia changing due to Russian influx
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Oct 2022

Tens of thousands of Russians have fled to Armenia following the mobilization of 300,000 reservists on September 21. One-way air tickets from Moscow to Yerevan now top USD 2,000, several times the usual price. Some have paid over USD 5,000. There are over 20 flights a day from Russia to Yerevan, ...

Hunger Games start early
TURKEY · Report · 02 Oct 2022

The politics section kicks off with a personal view by the politics author, who suspects that foul play to win the elections might have already started. He cites the recent and unique PKK attack on a police station, a draconian social media censorship bill and new probes against popular CHP mayor...

Russia voted off UN aviation agency
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Oct 2022

On October 1 the decision was made at the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO). This is a diplomatic defeat for Russia. 36 countries are on the ICAO.  Russia closed its airspace to airlines from 36 countries including all EU countries in February 2022. These 36 countries banned Russia...

Ukrainian forces retake lands amid Putin's announcing annexations
UKRAINE · In Brief · 01 Oct 2022

On the day Vladimir Putin was announcing the annexation of occupied territories Ukrainian forces completed the total encirclement of the Russian grouping in Lyman (nearly 5000 soldiers). This grouping is not big but it includes the most motivated and best trained soldiers Russians have in this ar...

Putin declares that four Ukrainian districts are Russian
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Oct 2022

On September 30 Putin addressed the nation live from the Kremlin. The Russian-appointed heads of the four occupied Russian districts were present. Putin proclaimed the absorption of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk and Luhansk into Russia. He signed a decree to integrate them into the Russian Feder...

SAUDI ARABIA: Pre-budget statement sees 2022 spending up 9% y/y but a 2.3% of GDP surplus
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 30 Sep 2022 · 1 response

The pre-budget statement was published late on Friday evening Riyadh-time (MoF). The final budget, out in December, typically sticks with the expenditure allocation used in this statement but adjusts the revenue estimate in line with the oil outlook at the time. KSA has been producing these state...

GULF WEEKLY: Kuwaiti opposition wins election, MBZ visits Oman, MBS becomes PM, Bahrain GDP
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 30 Sep 2022 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil recovered to $86 amidst hints that OPEC+ might cut production substantially next week. * PIF is moving ahead with its green bond issuance, disclosing details of its assets in a prospectus. * MBS was promoted to prime ...

Argentina: walking a tightrope
ARGENTINA · Report · 30 Sep 2022

The recent staff-level agreement Argentina reached with the IMF on the 2Q review, under the Extended Fund Facility arrangement, was not surprising. This staff-level agreement lays the way for the formal approval of the IMF´s board of directors (expected to meet on October 7) and with it, the thir...

Webinar Replay - Mexico: Polls and Policies
MEXICO · Report · 30 Sep 2022

Get insight into Mexico's economic and political outlook with the replay of our webinar featuring Mauricio González and Guillermo Valdes discussing Mexico's 2023 budget and economic plan and the latest GEA-Isa political proprietary poll.

The monetary policy and exchange rate situation
INDIA · Report · 30 Sep 2022

The export boom of 2020 and 2021 came to a halt in early 2022. Discounted crude oil from Russia has helped keep down the cost of importing crude oil. Inflation that exceeds the target of 4% remains a problem. Rupee depreciation will pass through into a small increase in inflation. The trailing P/...

Bi-weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 30 Sep 2022

Sep 15 Bureau of National Statistics: Kazakhstan’s industrial production grew by 2.5% y-o-y in 8M22 Sep 16 Parliament: The Parliament of Kazakhstan unanimously adopted amendments to the Constitution on a one-time 7-year presidency and renaming of the capital Bureau of National Statistics: Agricul...

The MNB will pay a spread over the base rate on longer-term deposits to banks
HUNGARY · In Brief · 29 Sep 2022

This afternoon, Mr. Virág of the MNB spoke to analysts online, explaining mainly how the Bank's new sterilisation instruments will be used, and also on what basis the Monetary Council has decided to end their year-long series of interest rate hikes. The latter part was pretty much a repetition of...

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