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Recovery slows amid weakening global economy
CHINA · Report · 29 Sep 2022

Growth strengthened, but only slightly. In August, industrial output rose 4.2% y/y, up 0.4 pps, lifting overall January-August growth to 3.6%, up 0.1 pps. Investment rose 5.8% y/y in January-August, up 0.1 pps. The August growth rate was 6.4% y/y, up 2.8 pps. Real estate investment growth rate fe...

Growth outlook mixed, amid fiscal woes
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 29 Sep 2022

El Salvador’s post-pandemic economic rebound was robust in 2021, but was truncated by adverse international factors, mainly the global economic consequences of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, as well as persisting distortions on global supply chains. Consequently, economic growth this and next year ...

Referendums in east Ukraine said to show pro-Russia result
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Sep 2022

On September 28 officials in four Russian occupied districts of Ukraine announced the results of their referendums. They showed an average of 96% in favor of fusion with Russia. The districts are Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, Luhansk and Kherson. However, Russia controls only half of Donetsk. The capita...

The presidential debate will be held today at 10:30 p.m, Bolsonaro’s party published an unofficial audit for electoral process that only 5% of the security issues were covered by the TSE, & the latest polls shows Lula is 10 points ahead of Bolsonaro
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Sep 2022

TV Globo will be holding a debate between the presidential candidates today, at 10:30 p.m. It is the last major event before the first round, which takes place on Sunday (2). After the debate, Lula will attend political events on Friday in three key states. Yesterday, the PL published the results...

The economy continued to successfully adapt in August, but regular shocks may cause serious damage
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 29 Sep 2022

Rosstat reported that in 8M22, the output of the five basic sectors (industry, agriculture, construction, trade, transport) was down y-o-y by a mere 1.8% and 0.4% in August and 8M22, therefore, indicating that the economy was heading to moderate conduction in 2022 as a whole. Industrial output wa...

Mir blow, Mersin terror strike
TURKEY · In Brief · 28 Sep 2022

I wish to apologize to our readers for posting this Market Brief at a very inconvenient hour, but lately we have been blessed by an abundance of international visitors and information requests, which keeps me busy all day. I can say without exaggeration that this is the highest interest in Turkis...

Bank Indonesia raises the benchmark rate for a second time
INDONESIA · Report · 28 Sep 2022

For the second meeting in a row, Bank Indonesia raised the benchmark interest rate, this time by 50 basis points. The benchmark interest rate currently stands at 4.25%. This policy was decided during the Monetary Policy meeting of September 21-22, 2022. The first increase of the benchmark rate wa...

Lula remains in the lead in the polls and gave an interview to SBT yesterday, and Bolsonaro held a livestream and called for his voters to show up on Election Day
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Sep 2022

Currently, Lula would receive 50% of the valid vote. Due to the margin of error, it is not possible to say whether the election will have one or two rounds. Variables such as abstention, the movement in favor of a utilitarian voting strategy and the TV Globo debate, scheduled for tomorrow, Septem...

Lyman cauldron: Ukrainian forces develop counteroffensive
UKRAINE · In Brief · 28 Sep 2022

The Ukrainian army broke the front on the east bank of the Oskil River and took Lyman in an operational circle. After a hasty withdrawal from Izyum, Russians entrenched themselves in Lyman and tried to make a stronghold in this town. Russian forces made an attempt to stabilize the front across th...

Kremlin admits mistakes as Russian men flee mobilization
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Sep 2022

On September 26 Putin's spokesman said that there had been errors by regional governments in the implementation of the mobilization decree. Some ineligible men have been drafted, and this error needs to be corrected.  Only men who are under 35 and who have done military training are eligible for ...

Damage caused by Hurricane Fiona exceeds USD373 m
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 27 Sep 2022

Preliminary estimates of the damage caused by Hurricane Fiona exceed USD $373 m. (DOP20 b), according to information provided by President Luis Abinader at a press conference held yesterday. The president reported on the efforts made to reestablish services in the affected areas. In the affected ...

Surprise, surprise: the MNB announced the end of the interest rate hikes, following a 125 bps rate increase today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 27 Sep 2022

Well, this was truly surprising. We wrote about the prospects and analyst expectations yesterday. From that note, it is probably clear that analysts' median view was significantly different from what actually happened. But for a fact, the MNB raised the base rate and all other rates by a uniform ...

Getting ready for a dive
CHILE · Report · 27 Sep 2022

The downward trend in economic activity continues to deepen. Weak figures are due in large measure to a strong deceleration in consumption. Various factors are hitting consumption simultaneously: a weak labor market, falling real wages, stagnant consumer credit, no more excess liquidity and polit...

The End of the Adjustment Cycle and the Risk Ahead
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 27 Sep 2022

Last week, the Central Bank announced the end of the monetary tightening cycle, keeping the SELIC rate at 13.75%. In a scenario of high internal and external uncertainty, the COPOM opted for caution, but did not fail to warn about the effects of changes in the fiscal framework. Although the most ...

Two polls on the presidential election were published yesterday, Lula will attend a dinner with businessmen in São Paulo, and former Minister of the STF Joaquim Barbosa recorded a video in support of former President Lula
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Sep 2022

This is the last week before the election. Advertising on radio and TV runs until Thursday, September 29. On that same day, TV Globo will hold the final debate between the candidates for the Presidency of the Republic. So far, all the main candidates are likely to attend. This will be a decisive ...

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