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Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 14 Oct 2022

Sep 30 S&P: The agency has upgraded the long-term ratings of KazTransOil from "BB" to "BB+" Oct 3 Bureau of National Statistics: CPI in Kazakhstan in September 2022 grew 1.8% m-o-m and 17.7% y-o-y Oct 4 National bank: The regulator postponed the date of the announcement of the decision on the bas...

Russian Governor of Kherson asks for civilians to be evacuated
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 13 Oct 2022

On October 13 the Moscow-appointed official said he needs help moving civilians out as the Ukrainian Army is advancing. He said this on his Telegram channel, which suggests rising desperation. Vladimir Saldo complained about Ukrainian missile strikes. The Russian Army is fighting in Kherson. Ther...

Over the holiday Lula went to the Southeast and Northeast while Bolsonaro stayed in the Southeast, the latest poll shows signs of a stable electoral scenario, and the STJ will decide whether to suspend Alagoas Governor Paulo Dantas
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Oct 2022

Former President Lula was in Rio de Janeiro alongside Eduardo Paes. Then, he went to Salvador, Bahia. The PT's candidate Jerônimo Rodrigues is in the runoff round against ACM Neto (União Brasil) in the gubernatorial election in Bahia. Jair Bolsonaro went to Minas Gerais, where he participated in ...

The budget was in surplus in 9M22, but turning into a deficit in 2022 as a whole amid soaring expenditures
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 12 Oct 2022

The Ministry of Finance reported that the federal budget posted a small surplus in 9M22 (around R55 bn). However, an expected deficit in 4Q will significantly overlap this surplus as expenditures are to soar. According to the initial budget version, the government planned to spend R23.7trln, whil...

Stabilization is getting tougher
VENEZUELA · Report · 12 Oct 2022

For the second time this year, at 12 percent, the monthly inflation rate hit double digits. The first time was in August, the month of exchange-rate turbulence that took inflation to 16 percent. Even though the dollar appreciated against the bolivar by a mere 1.8 percent in September compared wit...

Interest rate on the MNB's 2-month deposit instrument rose moderately at today's tender
HUNGARY · In Brief · 12 Oct 2022

The MNB held its second weekly tender for its new 2-month deposit instrument today. The actual tenor of the depos will be shorter than two months, as the new placements will mature on December 1, the same way as the similar deposits made by banks a week ago. Banks handed in bids for HUF522bn, of ...

Review of the most recent cabinet changes
ARGENTINA · Report · 12 Oct 2022

President Alberto Fernandez announced on Monday three cabinet changes, for the ministries of Labor, Social Development, and Women and Gender Equality. Of the three, the most significant cabinet changes were undoubtedly those of Labor and Social Development. The newcomers will have to endure a com...

Peru: Attorney General submits to Congress a constitutional demand against President Castillo
PERU · In Brief · 11 Oct 2022 · 1 response

A few minutes ago, the Attorney General (AG), Ms. Patricia Benavides, submitted a constitutional demand against President Castillo. Of the seven investigations, the AG has added three, those related to the embezzlement out of public works concessions and the state-owned firm, PetroPerú. The deman...

Economics: 2Q aggregate demand results are mixed as risks of a 2023 slump increase
MEXICO · Report · 11 Oct 2022

Aggregate supply and demand figures for the second quarter of 2022 showed growth in private consumption and investment that not only exceeded expectations, but also proved sufficient to possibly lead to slightly stronger average GDP growth for 2022 than we projected last month. But it is worth no...

The current account narrows in 3Q22 but is still exceptionally strong
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 11 Oct 2022

According to the preliminary estimates published by the CBR, Russia's current account reached $198.4bn in 9M22 as it narrowed in 3Q22 to $51.9 bn (versus $61.8bn in 1Q22 and 76.7bn in 2Q22). The current account remains exceptionally strong and is likely to be so in 4Q22 as well. Exports of goods ...

Kazakhstan's banking sector: a forced transformation
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 11 Oct 2022

Over the course of 2022, the banking system of Kazakhstan has gone through a period of transformation initiated by sanctions against Russian banks by Western countries. As a result, major Russian players have left the Kazakh market, having sold their assets to locals. This may enable the latter t...

Capital Outflows, Global Risk and Exchange Rate
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 11 Oct 2022

The Central Bank has finally updated the statistics on currency flows and balance of payments, allowing two important findings. First, there is more than US$ 60 billion in export revenues left abroad, due to exporters’ preferring to invest money abroad rather than repatriate it. Second, over the ...

Proposed 2023 budget maintains status quo; growth slowdown looms
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Forecast · 11 Oct 2022

The 2023 proposed budget incorporates a lower than expected deficit for 2022, but higher than in 2021. With an oil price forecast at $89/b for 2023, the government wants to play it safe, and not risk having to eliminate subsidies and adjust domestic energy prices. Subsidies for electricity and fu...

No inflation surprise, yet the forint is weakening further today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 11 Oct 2022

September CPI-inflation was reported at 20.1% yoy this morning. This was sharply up from 15.6% yoy in August, but with a well-explained good reason, the most recent energy price reform, and almost exactly matching the MNB's forecast and analysts' median expectation. Yet the forint has got even we...

In the latest IPEC poll Lula has 51% and Bolsonaro 42%, Lula will meet with the economic leaders of the Real Plan, and tomorrow is a federal holiday (Children’s Day)
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Oct 2022

Yesterday, an IPEC poll on the presidential election was published. Lula has 51% of the intended votes and Bolsonaro with 42%. Considering only valid votes, the PT candidate has 55% and Bolsonaro, 45%. According to information obtained by Arko Advice, the PT campaign has organized a meeting betwe...

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