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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The distance between Lula and Bolsonaro is now five percentage points, Bolsonaro’s campaign submitted the document to the TSE regarding his advertisements on radio, and the Senate approved a bill for the nursing salary floor
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Oct 2022

The poll published this morning by PoderData shows that former President Lula gained one point. Two more polls will be published today, one from Brasmarket and another from Quaest/Genial. Yesterday, President Bolsonaro's campaign submitted to the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) the report pertaini...

The National Bank raises the key rate by 150 bps
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 26 Oct 2022 · 1 response

The National Bank announced that it raised the key rate to 16%, i.e., by 150 bps. Last time the regulator raised the key rate at the end of July, while in early September, it kept it unchanged. The interest rate corridor remained unchanged, implying that the regulator will apply a 17% charge to s...

Russia pessimistic about new UK Prime Minister
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Oct 2022

On October 25 Rishi Sunak became the British Prime Minister. Putin's spokesman said it perceives ''no hope'' or warmer ties with the UK under the new PM. Nevertheless, the spokesman said that Russia is open to talks. A Kremlin spokesman lacerated the outgoing British PM Liz Truss as ''a disgrace'...

Reached the summit
CHILE · Report · 25 Oct 2022

The monthly variation of the seasonally-adjusted August IMACEC came in at 0.6%, the first positive figure in five months, and above that of the most optimistic analyst in the Bloomberg survey. But it turns out that the gains were due to a positive one-off effect in services. Various indicators, s...

Russia sovereign debt: Minfin returns to the primary market
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 25 Oct 2022

After a month-long pause, the Russian Ministry of Finance returned to the primary debt market, placing OFZs totaling R50 bln last week. However, it would be a big stretch to call it a success, because the borrower was forced to offer double-digit yields on fixed-rate paper and, in addition, it pl...

Monetary Council kept all policies unchanged today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 25 Oct 2022

At this month's regular rate-setting meeting, all policies were upheld with no change today. This means the O/N deposit rate at 18%, the O/N repo rate at 15% and the base rate at 13%. The Council's statement effectively repeated what was said in the Q3 inflation report, published in late Septembe...

The surprising end of the Party Conference
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 25 Oct 2022 · 1 response

China’s Party Conference ended with a bang in two ways: the clear selection of Politburo Standing Committee (PSC) members in Xi Jinping’s camp, and the unprecedented removal of former Party head Hu Jintao from the Party Conference. In this report I discuss the significance of these two acts. F...

Bolsonaro filed a lawsuit at the TSE claiming he had fewer ads than Lula, the TCU ordered the Caixa to speak on the payroll-linked loans it granted as part of the Auxílio Brasil program, and Henrique Meirelles and Persio Arida support Lula
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Oct 2022

The Superior Electoral Court (TSE) maintained the suspension of Jair Bolsonaro's ads on radio and TV and transferred them to former President Lula as a right to reply to Bolsonaro's accusations. Upon receiving Bolsonaro’s lawsuit, the president of the TSE, Alexandre de Moraes, gave the campaign 2...

Politics: The drive toward increasing militarization and the risks posed to democracy
MEXICO · Report · 25 Oct 2022

The national political environment has deteriorated considerably since the beginning of September, when Congress approved unconstitutional bills designed to formally shift control over the National Guard to the Ministry of Defense. The military is increasingly in command of activities traditional...

Economics: Mixed data in October — aggregate demand components show significant growth but inflation remains high
MEXICO · Report · 24 Oct 2022

Economic news in October delivered some strong indicators, starting with aggregate supply and demand data for the second quarter of 2022 showing growth in private consumption and investment that surpassed expectations. Private expenditure is now running near its peak from the fourth quarter of 20...

Monetary Policy, Public Debt and World Growth
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 24 Oct 2022

In 2023, global growth will decelerate substantially, with many countries suffering recessions, especially in Europe. That outcome will be a consequence of the inevitable course corrections in the expansionary policies – monetary and fiscal – used in reaction to the pandemic. In the first part of...

Variables that may impact the election and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Oct 2022

This is the last week of campaigning. The campaigns end on Friday, October 28. On the same day, the final debate between the candidates for the Presidency of the Republic will be held on TV Globo. Jair Bolsonaro and Lula have both confirmed their participation. The election will take place on Oct...

A good couple of months
ECUADOR · Report · 24 Oct 2022

Ecuador has had good news both domestically and from abroad in the last two months. On October 14, the government and CONAIE ended successfully—albeit with differing levels of satisfaction—the negotiation tables that were established after the violent riots of last June. With the mediation of the...

Former Federal Deputy Roberto Jefferson shot at federal police officers yesterday, the runoff round of the elections will be held on Sunday, October 30, and 14 polls on the elections will be published by then
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Oct 2022

Roberto Jefferson eventually turned himself in and was arrested. Moraes's order to arrest Jefferson came shortly after Jefferson verbally attacked STF Minister Carmen Lucia. The episode had huge repercussions in the press and could spill over into President Jair Bolsonaro’s campaign. Next Sunday,...

Housing dynamics are likely to support price moderation
ISRAEL · Report · 24 Oct 2022

1. Housing dynamics support lower housing purchase prices in 2023. 2. We expect housing rental prices to moderate as well, supportive of lower inflation. 3. Consumer confidence has declined, and private consumption appears to be decelerating, supportive of weaker demand-push inflation.

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