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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Headline likely peaked, but…
TURKEY · Report · 03 Nov 2022

Consumer price inflation came in at 3.5%, m/m, in October, broadly in line with the market consensus of around 3.6%, and slightly above ours, the latter stemming largely from a somewhat higher food inflation forecast. The 12-month rate nevertheless increased further -- for the 17th consecutive mo...

Boric's pension reform proposal
CHILE · In Brief · 03 Nov 2022 · 3 responses

In a nationally televised speech President Gabriel Boric announced his much-awaited plan for reforming Chile's pension system. The proposal consists of three elements: a 6% increase in contributions, financed by employers; a rise in the so-called Universal Guaranteed Pension to CLP250.000 (about ...

On social media Bolsonaro called for protestors to unblock the country’s highways, VP-elect Alckmin will meet with the Chief of Staff to formalize the government transition process, and negotiations for the presidencies of the House and Senate have begun
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Nov 2022

Several entities reported supply risks due to the protests. The Brazilian Petroleum Institute (IBP) sent a letter to the National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels (ANP), notifying it about a possible lack of diesel in eight states. But the situation should improve after the president...

Russia says that avoiding a nuclear clash is vital
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Nov 2022

On November 2 the Russian Foreign Ministry said that avoiding a nuclear clash is the top priority. It blamed tensions on ''irresponsible and shameless actions aimed at undermining our national security.'' It called on nuclear weapons states to desist from ''dangerous attempts to infringe each oth...

QATAR: Moody's lifts to positive outlook
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 02 Nov 2022

Moody's estimates that Qatar's debt has fallen to 42% of GDP and it expects that the improvement will be maintained as new LNG output comes onstream and capex falls after the World Cup.

September statistics bring no surprises
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 02 Nov 2022

Rosstat reported that output of the five basic sectors (industry, agriculture, construction, transport, trade) was down y-o-y by 3.5% and 0.8% in August and 9M22. Some sectors, such as agriculture, construction, and paid consumer services, performed relatively well, having grown by 5.2%, 5.2%, an...

Russia agrees to revive the grain deal
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Nov 2022

On November 2 Moscow said that it was rejoining the deal that allows Ukrainian food to be shipped via the Black Sea. But Putin warned that Russia will end the deal if it is provoked. Russia said it was allowing the deal to be reanimated since it is satisfied with promises from Ukraine not to use ...

Essential CIS Politics: November 2022
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 02 Nov 2022

* Russia held referenda in East Ukraine and formally annexed four regions before evacuating many Kherson citizens. * Russia mobilized 300,000 more men; some have reached the front and slowed Ukraine’s advance. * Russia carried out nuclear weapons drills, but NATO experts do not think t...

Courting chaos
COLOMBIA · Report · 01 Nov 2022

A central tenet of Colombian economic policy is that a finance minister’s economic announcements always have the full backing of the president. That is why, before making key announcements or presenting reforms, the minister always secures the president’s blessing. He then speaks on the president...

What will happen if the deal gets signed?
VENEZUELA · Report · 01 Nov 2022

It looks like a first agreement in the ongoing negotiations between the Maduro government and the Unitary Platform is about to be signed. Tied to it would be the approval of a license by the U.S. Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) allowing Chevron to expand its operations in Venez...

Leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia meet in Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Nov 2022

On October 31 Putin met the two leaders in Sochi, Russia. He said that he wanted to arrange a permanent peace between the two countries. He said that there were some  issues that had not been resolved. Armenia and Azerbaijan issued a joint communique after the talks in which they vowed not to use...

New increase in the monetary policy rate
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 01 Nov 2022

Yesterday the Central Bank increased the monetary policy rate by 25 basis points, going from 8.25% to 8.50% per year. The new rate for the permanent facility for liquidity expansion (1-day repos) is 9.00% per year, while the new interest-bearing deposit rate (Overnight) is 8.00% per year. The Cen...

Bolsonaro is expected to address the results of the election today, Lula begins negotiations to build his ministerial team, and truck drivers are still blocking highways to protest Bolsonaro’s defeat
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Nov 2022

President Jair Bolsonaro should quote the Armed Forces’ report on the electoral process. He will not claim fraud, but he is expected to criticize some decisions of the Superior Electoral Court against his campaign. Some names for Lula's ministerial team are already being reviewed. The next Minist...

Russian macro: The 2023 economic outlook increasingly uncertain as GDP contraction is moderate in 2022
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 01 Nov 2022

In mid-summer, it became clear that Russia’s GDP could contract less this year compared to the earlier thinking - accounting for the magnitude of the geopolitical shock the country has faced (or chosen). The effect turned out to be less significant than was considered right after the start of the...

Politics: Democracy under siege by the presidential electoral reform proposal
MEXICO · Report · 01 Nov 2022

President López Obrador’s governing project is proving increasingly costly for the country in practically every sphere, including security, health, education, the environment and others. Through the first four years of Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s presidency, there has been a concerted effort to...

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