GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

On January 3 Russia said that Belgorod was attacked by a Ukrainian missile. The city is close to the Ukrainian border and was hit by Ukrainian fire several times in December 2023. Russia regards these as terrorist attacks. Russia claims to have shot down a lot of Ukrainian missiles over Belgorod,...

Inflation ends 2023 at just under 65%

TURKEY · Report · 03 Jan 2024 · 1 response

Consumer price inflation was 2.9%, m/m, in December broadly in line with expectations, with the 12-month CPI inflation hence ending the year at 64.8%, up from 62% in November, which is in line with the CBRT’s latest forecast (mid-point %65) announced in the October Inflation Report. Monthly D...

Georgian breakaway region leases land to Russia

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Jan 2024

On December 27 the President of Abkhazia signed a law that transferred a Black Sea resort to Russia for 49 years. Abkhazia is recognized as an independent country by Russia. However, the international community recognizes it as Georgian territory. The Abkhazian parliament passed the law during an...

Officially estimated fiscal deficit just slightly below the 2022 actual, exceeds revised target

HUNGARY · In Brief · 02 Jan 2024

Meeting a legal requirement, the Finance Ministry published its revised macroeconomic forecast tables on December 31. In these, the Ministry estimated the annual general government deficit by Eurostat method at 5.9% of GDP, slightly below the 6.2% actual of 2022, and materially exceeding the revi...

2024 will begin without changes in the monetary policy interest rate

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 31 Dec 2023

The monetary policy interest rate will remain at 7.00% annually in the month of January 2024, while the rate of the permanent liquidity expansion facility (1-day Repos) will continue at 7.50% annually and the interest-bearing deposit rate (Overnight) will remain at 5.50% annually. The decision wa...

Major Russian aerial attacks on Ukraine

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Dec 2023

In the early hours of December 29 Kyiv, Lviv, Odessa, Dnipro, Kharkiv and other cities were hit by drones and missiles. Ukraine claimed the attacks targeted infrastructure and not military positions. They say a maternity hospital was hit. Cruise, hypersonic and ballistic missiles were fired. At l...

Ukraine claims to have sunk Russian warship

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Dec 2023

On December 27 Kyiv said the landing ship Novocherkassk was sunk by Ukrainian jets in the Russian port of Feodosia. Russia stated that the ship was damaged but did not state there were any casualties. A Russian Telegram channel said there were 77 sailors aboard the ship at the time of the attack....

Laying the groundwork for elections

VENEZUELA · Report · 19 Dec 2023

Faced with a high likelihood that a competitive election could lead Maduro to lose power or that the International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruling could hand Guyana a victory, the government has chosen the defense of the Essequibo as a way to unify the people against two enemies, one external (Guya...

Growth performance mixed, as political turmoil rises.

CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 19 Dec 2023

Costa Rica’s 2023 economic performance looks promising, according to economic activity figures to October. Domestic political conditions continue as reported since June 2022, with tense relations between the government and the opposition, but seemingly with little impact on the course of business...

MNB base rate down 75 bps today, to end 2023 at 10.75%

HUNGARY · In Brief · 19 Dec 2023

The Monetary Council held its last regular monthly rate-setting meeting today, this time also discussing the Q4 inflation report. The decision was a 75 bps cut of the base rate and the interest rate corridor alike, the same way as it happened in the previous two months: After the meeting, vice go...

Economics: Continuing strength in US and Mexico activity with controlled inflation bode well for 2024 despite hawkish monetary policy

MEXICO · Report · 19 Dec 2023

The economic outlook for year-end 2023 and 2024 remains mixed. Continuing progress in international economic activity has been encouraging, with US GDP growth driven by personal consumption in goods and services, an expansion that has defied the Fed’s hawkish stance since the beginning of 2022, a...

EU sanctions Russian diamonds

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Dec 2023

On December 18 the 12th sanctions package was approved. It had been delayed because of Austrian objections related to Ukraine's placing Raiffeisen Bank, which still operates in Russia, on its list of sponsors of war. The diamond ban relates to both synthetic and natural diamonds as well as those ...

Politics: Voter support for Xóchitl slips while that of Claudia and Morena may have run up against a hard ceiling

MEXICO · Report · 18 Dec 2023

This week we are releasing the results of the latest GEA-ISA quarterly poll of registered voters on the general situation of the country and electoral preferences. It delivered results very similar to those of last September, but the numbers that departed from the results of three months ago may ...

Two battles in sight and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Dec 2023

This is the final week of activity in the National Congress, which recesses on Friday, December 22. Before this, the votes must be completed on the MP for the ICMS subsidy, online betting, the LDO and the 2024 Federal Budget. Tax Reform will be enacted on Wednesday, and Lula will lead a ministeri...

Fiscal Stimuli, Monetary Accommodation and GDP Growth

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Forecast · 18 Dec 2023

The strong GDP growth in 2023, of 3.1%, is much more a consequence of actual GDP, spurred by aggregate demand, than by growth of potential GDP. No matter how attractive they are, the narratives about increased productivity have no empirical support. Contrary to government and household consumptio...