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Economics: Strong public finance data cannot hide major risks ahead
MEXICO · Report · 15 Nov 2022

Public finance’s medium term outlook has emerged as a major source of public debate with last week’s passage of the López Obrador administration’s federal spending bill (FSB) for 2023 and the release of public finance results as of September, which appear solid on the back of strong revenue growt...

A loss in central bank efficacy
VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Nov 2022

Monthly inflation for October closed at 6 percent, in a sharp slowdown from September (12.0 percent) and August (16.2 percent). This slowdown occurred despite an accelerated pace of bolivar depreciation whereby the dollar spiked 8.2 percent against the bolivar in October after having gained only ...

The Kazakh economy keeps growing at around 3% with no surprises
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 15 Nov 2022

The country's Bureau of National Statistics reported that in 10M22 the short-term indicator grew by 3.1% y-o-y delivering no major surprises – as opposed to smaller and less industrialized countries, such as Georgian and Armenia, where an inflow of Russians had much more visible effect. According...

Zelensky visits Kherson
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Nov 2022

On November 13 the president visited the city that was recently retaken by Ukraine. He said that there is evidence of 400 war crimes committed by Russia. He said on TV this included murdered civilians. Zelensky said that Russian troops looted shops and even took zoo animals as well as laying mine...

Politics: Mexican authorities struggle to respond to the exponential rise in femicides, which are still vastly underreported
MEXICO · Report · 14 Nov 2022

Homicide statistics show that the number of women murder victims has been climbing since 2007, when a thousand such deaths were registered. That toll had climbed to around 4,000 by 2021, the most recent year for which data has been available from Inegi, the source of the most complete records. Th...

Lula prioritizes social issues and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Nov 2022

The rapporteur of the Transition PEC in the Senate, Marcelo Castro (MDB-PI), will discuss the terms of the proposal with party leaders. He should also present his preliminary report on the Federal Budget. President-elect Lula participates in meetings at the COP27, in Egypt. He will return on Nove...

Politics are winning over economics
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 14 Nov 2022

Bloomberg just published a story about significant new support for China’s property market. Measures announced thus far include asking banks to extend 1 trillion yuan in emergency support for the property market by end-2022, reducing interest rates, and, according to Bloomberg reporting, develope...

Russian immigration boosts economies of other former USSR countries
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Nov 2022

Since February 2022 Russians have emigrated in increasing numbers. They have often moved to poorer former USSR countries particularly: Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan. In September 2022 there was a spike of emigration due to the mobilization. Housing in major c...

Greater sanity at the end of a startup tech boom
INDIA · Report · 14 Nov 2022

India went through a dramatic period with the success of technology startups backed by venture capital. At its peak this phenomenon induced a significant impact upon the labor market and was starting to reshape the behavior of established financial and non-financial firms. The bloom is off this r...

Slowdown in growth and inflation, with climate vulnerability a worry
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 14 Nov 2022

The interannual growth of economic activity in September was 4.8%, lower than in August. Despite this slowdown, January-September 2022 accumulated interannual growth was 5.4%, above potential growth. Inflation has managed to maintain a downward trend since May, and y/y CPI growth was 8.2% in Oct...

The details of the Transition PEC should be outlined on Wednesday, Lula travels to Egypt today for COP27, and tomorrow is a national holiday – Proclamation of the Republic
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Nov 2022

According to Senator Marcelo Castro (MDB-PI), who is the budget's rapporteur and the person who will also report on the PEC in the Senate, the terms of the proposal will be negotiated with party leaders on Wednesday, November 16. He also said that the idea would be to permanently remove the Auxíl...

Government bond issuance is expected to double in 2023
ISRAEL · Report · 14 Nov 2022

* We expect government bond issuance in 2023 to increase significantly. * Recent economic indicators point to weak export numbers and slowing growth ahead. * We expect October’s CPI to reach 0.4% m/m on higher clothing, food and rental prices. * Q322 GDP will reflect slow growth of 1...

De-risking and Chinese equities
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 14 Nov 2022

There is pressure, primarily from the U.S. pension and retirement funds, to “de-risk” by reducing the weight of Chinese equities in overall portfolios. The official China data for September 2022 show net portfolio outflows. Future months are likely to show negative growth as de-risking sentiment ...

First impressions from the Beyoglu terror attack
TURKEY · In Brief · 14 Nov 2022

On Sunday 4 pm, a bomb exploded in the busy entertainment venue,  Beyoglu, killing six and injuring 81. The death toll could increase further. The female suspect was apprehended immediately, after which the police conducted broad raids netting about 80 alleged accomplices. The suspect claims she ...

Good news on the budget, bad news on politics
HUNGARY · In Brief · 13 Nov 2022

For short, the good news is that the central government reached a pretty much non-seasonal cash surplus of HUF101bn in October, pulling the ten-month cumulative deficit for this year down to HUF2590bn or an annualised 5.1% of GDP, down from 5.9% of GDP in January-September. The annual cash defici...

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