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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Moderate y-o-y GDP contraction in 1Q23 prompts decent economic growth this year
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 18 May 2023

Rosstat reported that GDP was down by a mere 1.9% y-o-y in 1Q23 which is not bad a result following the 4.5%, 3.5%, 2.7% y-o-y contraction in 2Q22, 3Q22, and 4Q22 and the high base in 1Q22. So far, Rosstat didn’t provide any breakdown of the GDP – just this flash-estimate, which is the usual prac...

Congress approves a new mining royalty
CHILE · In Brief · 17 May 2023

After working its way through the legislative maze for four years, Chile’s mining royalty law was approved today in Congress. The bill, which will become law once the president signs it, seeks to tax large-scale mining companies according to a differentiated schedule. The new rules will tax compa...

Russia and Iran sign transport deal
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 May 2023

On May 17 the countries agreed to cooperate on a commercial transport system to connect the Persian Gulf and India. Both nations wish to circumvent sea lanes. It also relates to a 164-km-railroad in Iran due to be completed by the end of 2026. This will allow goods to travel by train from Russia ...

Cross Death: Long Awaited
ECUADOR · In Brief · 17 May 2023

Yesterday, Guillermo Lasso attended the Assembly session to present his defense on the accusations of corruption that were the basis for his impeachment. He did not announce the cross-death process during his speech, but did so last night at 7 pm, and requested the Electoral Council to call new e...

A Changed Game
VENEZUELA · Report · 17 May 2023

We adjust our public spending, inflation, and exchange rate projections downward significantly following the government's 1 May 2023 announcements. Inflation remains high but falls to 188 percent this year (from 251 percent in 2022) and the exchange rate closes at 48 Bs/$ (+160 percent). A slower...

Kazakhstan macro: economic growth to surprise on the upside in 2023
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 17 May 2023

The economic situation in Kazakhstan remained stable in April, and the economy continued to expand steadily as the short-term indicator (an aggregate measure of activity in industry, agriculture, construction, transport, trade, and communications) increased by 5.5% y-o-y in 4M23. In 1Q23 it was u...

Today the House is expected to vote on the urgency of the new tax regime, Haddad will speak about government's economic policy and the Senate votes on MP 1147/22, which eliminates the rates of PIS and Cofins on revenues
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 May 2023

The Lower House is expected to vote today on the urgency of the new tax regime. The expectation is for more than 300 votes in favor of urgency. Fernando Haddad will speak today about the government's economic policy in a joint public hearing in the Lower House Committees on Economic Development, ...

South African military chief in Moscow
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 May 2023

On May 16 was announced that Lieutenant General Mbatha is meeting Russian military chiefs. The South African delegation discussed cooperation with Russia and programs intended to heighten combat preparedness. Mbatha anticipated visiting the Russian Army's training grounds and factories.  Mbatha's...

Growth slows on weak PC demand
ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 May 2023

GDP growth slows in Q1 Headline GDP growth slowed to 2.5% saar in the 1st quarter of 2023, following growth of 5.3% in Q422. Private consumption declined by 1.7% mostly due to a shift in new vehicle purchases to Q422 before higher taxation came into effect. Excluding new vehicles, private consump...

Russian macro: Russian economy set to rebound in 2Q23
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 16 May 2023

At the very end of April, we published a report on the trends in Russian industry (“Manufacturing to Gain Importance as a Driving Force”) and suggested that the country’s industrial sector would deliver quite strong growth in 2023 as a whole, especially in manufacturing. Looking at a broader rang...

President Boluarte in trouble; government upbeat on the economy; BCRP’s first cut now expected in August
PERU · Report · 16 May 2023

In this report, we discuss the unfortunate comments made by President Dina Boluarte, in response to the recent international human rights reports, and the risk of her being forced to resign. Then we discuss the Q1 2023 real GDP report released on May 15th, and our forecast for economic performanc...

Dep. Claudio Cajado (PP-BA) released his report on the new fiscal framework, Arthur Lira (PP-AL) may read the petition to open the Cryptocurrencies CPI and the nomination of Gabriel Galípolo for the Monetary Policy Board of the Central Bank was released
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 May 2023

Deputy Claudio Cajado (PP-BA), the rapporteur of the complementary bill that deals with the new tax regime, released his report. The basic scenario is that this week the urgency of the proposal should be voted on and approved. But the merit should be left for next week. Today, Lower House Preside...

Inflation converging to target range, but growth is sluggish
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 16 May 2023

The Dominican economy grew by a cumulative 1.4% in Q1 2023, the third lowest rate for a Q1 during 2005-2023. Meanwhile, y/y inflation was 5.15% in April, the lowest y/y rate recorded since December 2020, which shortens the distance to the annual inflation target range of 4±1%. The restrictive ...

A mild recession has been reported for Q1 this morning
HUNGARY · In Brief · 16 May 2023

GDP fell by 0.2% qoq, 1.1% yoy in volume terms, according to KSH's preliminary data. This was the third consecutive quarter with negative quarterly growth, as according to downwardly revised numbers, GDP fell by 0.6% qoq in Q4 and by 0.8% qoq in Q3 2022. Analysts in Portfolio.hu's poll expected -...

Moldova intends to leave a post Soviet association
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 May 2023

On May 15 Moldova said it will quit the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). Moldova said it was leaving because the CIS had not helped them get Russian troops to leave Transnistria, which is a region of Moldova. Russia says its troops in Transnistria are peacekeepers. Moldova says they are ...

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