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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Leaders try to reach an agreement on the Transition PEC, Lula will make important decisions in Brasilia this week, and on Friday the STF should decide regarding sentences in the tax area
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Nov 2022

Allied leaders will try to reach an agreement on the Transition Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC). Some options are already on the table. The most likely scenario today continues to be a value lower than that proposed by the government and a period of one year. Lula will be in Brasilia this...

President of Kazakhstan re-elected
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Nov 2022

On November 20, in a widely expected result, the president won another term. Exit polls show him winning at least 82% of the vote. The official tally has not been announced.  Turnout was only 69%. Some Kazakhs see no point in voting because the result is a foregone conclusion. The constitution wa...

OFZ: a new approach to placement tactics
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 21 Nov 2022

In mid-October, the Russian Ministry of Finance resumed primary OFZ auctions despite challenging market conditions. Moreover, by the beginning of November, it became clear that the government had set a priority to borrow as much as possible. As a result, the Ministry raised R1.3 trln on the marke...

Rate hike of 0.5% likely today
ISRAEL · Report · 21 Nov 2022

1. Opinions are divided regarding today’s rate decision: we are leaning towards a 0.5% hike, but 0.75% cannot be ruled out. 2. GDP growth slowed in Q322 on modest private consumption growth, while investments and high-tech service exports expanded. 3. Inflation is expected to slow next year...

Fuels restrictions today, rate-setting meeting tomorrow, EP resolution on Thursday
HUNGARY · In Brief · 21 Nov 2022

1. From today, MOL, essentially the only wholesaler of fuels in the country in these days, is not supplying those petrol stations, for which it is not contractually required to do so. This came after the incident that an energy supplier unit of the Friendship pipeline in Ukraine was hit by a Russ...

Economics: As the monetary rate rises, bank credit continues to expand
MEXICO · Report · 21 Nov 2022 · 1 response

With the recent hikes in monetary policy interest rates in leading economies at a time of persistently high inflation, central bank authorities have signaled that we are facing a prolonged period of elevated interest rates. Such warnings from the Federal Reserve are of particular significance to ...

Rate hike of 0.5% likely today
ISRAEL · In Brief · 20 Nov 2022

Today’s rate decision will not be an easy one Expectations are divided between a 0.5% and a 0.75% hike. Several factors support a 0.75% hike, including October’s upward inflation surprise, accelerating core inflation y/y, presently decent growth, a tight labor market and wage pressures. Other fac...

Poland refuses to let Russian Foreign Minister in
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Nov 2022

On November 19 Warsaw said that it will not allow the Russian FM to attend the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), which Poland is hosting. Poland is not letting Sergei Lavrov in because he is under EU sanctions. Poland is perhaps Ukraine's foremost advocate in the EU. The...

Murder, mystery, mayhem
TURKEY · Report · 20 Nov 2022 · 1 response

Turkish jets strafed Syrian Kurdish settlements in retaliation for the Beyoglu terror attack. We doubt this will escalate into a military campaign, though. There is a lot of commentary on Erdogan’s diplomatic efforts elevating his credibility and raising his voter approval at home. We are circums...

Finland to build fence on the Russian border
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Nov 2022

On November 18 Finland said the 200 km fence will enhance its security. Finland has been neutral since 1944. In March 2022 it ended this policy because it said there was a threat from Russia and applied to join NATO. That is a breach of its 1944 peace treaty with the USSR. The 3-meter fence will ...

Russians seeking Armenian citizenship
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Nov 2022

In Q1 and Q2 2022 over 372,000 Russians went to Armenia. That is more than double the number in the same period in 2021. Since the mobilization in September 2022 even more Russians moved to Armenia but data is not yet available. Some of the Russians who went to Armenia in 2022 went on short visit...

GULF WEEKLY: Gulf IPOs dominate EMEA, IMF reports on Oman, US grants MBS immunity
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 18 Nov 2022 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil dipped to a one-month low on Fed worries and as OPEC/IEA revised down demand forecasts. * Kuwait and Qatar voted for Ukraine reparations while other Gulf states abstained. * Gulf IPOs have raised $18bn already this ye...

Negative global and domestic shocks slow the South African economy
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 18 Nov 2022 · 2 responses

Households: Consumption expenditure by households has been one of the key drivers of the South African economy’s recovery from the Covid-19-induced recession. Although household consumption is expected to remain a key driver for growth, this is expected to be at a lesser extent than during the pe...

VP Geraldo Alckmin made a statement reaffirming the next government’s commitment to fiscal responsibility, Davi Alcolumbre is positioning himself to run for president of the Senate, and Lula will arrive in Brazil this weekend
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Nov 2022

Vice President-elect Geraldo Alckmin gave an interview saying that the future government will cut expenses that can be cut. He spoke in favor of reviewing contracts – all of them – to find resources. He also placed Tax Reform as a central issue for the new government. Davi Alcolumbre, who was pre...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 17 Nov 2022

Strong demand for cash from the household sector combined with increased issuance activity of the Finance Ministry fueled demand for refinancing in CBR. The overall amount of REPO loans exceeded R1.7 trln. Despite that, RUONIA moved well above the key rate level in the first half of the month. Gi...

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