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GULF WEEKLY: Oman upgraded + Bahrain positive outlook, Abu Dhabi GDP, PIF $17bn loan, Qatar-Germany LNG deal
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 02 Dec 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC+ is widely expected to maintain quota levels next week, although a cut is possible. * Inflation has eased to 4.0% in the GCC, the lowest since May, with rent replacing food as the main driver. * PIF secured a $17bn 7...

Peru: Castillo at the edge
PERU · In Brief · 02 Dec 2022

Yesterday was a bad day for President Pedro Castillo and the odds that he is ousted in the next six months are high. For once, Congress approved the third impeachment motion with 73 votes in favor, 32 against and 6 abstentions. Although Congress needs 87 votes to oust him, the opposition believes...

The deadline for the Transition PEC should be one or two years at the most and the value will not exceed R$ 130 billion, the STF approved the Lifetime Review yesterday, and the Transition PEC is expected to be approved in the Senate next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Dec 2022

President Lula's presence in Brasilia helped guide the political agreement around the Transition Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC). He is expected to speak to the press today around 11:30 a.m. In addition to the PEC, he will likely be asked about the ministerial team. Yesterday, by 6 votes ...

Ukraine to restrict religious groups linked to Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Dec 2022

On December 1 Zelensky said his government would proscribe activities by religious organizations connected to Russia. A Kremlin-funded monastery in Kyiv was suspected of spying for Russia. Zelensky said that the security services believe that Russian subversion is carried on through religious bod...

South Africa's Risk Heightened While Ramaphosa Considers his Future
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 02 Dec 2022

President Ramaphosa finds himself in a crisis riddled with complexity. He has few options, but none is exciting or under his total control. When a few months back, Arthur Fraser, South Africa’s x-spy master, leaked the theft of US dollars from Ramaphosa’s Phala Phala Farm, the President dismissed...

The 2023 NFPS budget and third quarter fiscal data hide revenues and expenditures. The economy continues to accelerate.
PANAMA · Report · 01 Dec 2022

The overall government budget for next year is US 27.6 billion. Because of the state accounting system in Panama, this figure includes US 3.2 billion for state-owned banks (which are independently managed and not subject in practical terms to budget restrictions), as well as US 3.5 billion in int...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 01 Dec 2022

The FX market remains more or less stable in anticipation of an embargo on Russian oil and the price cap. It is worth mentioning that trading activity in traditional currencies is declining in Russia as these assets are considered toxic by a growing number of local market participants. The full-s...

A trot not a gallop
PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 01 Dec 2022

The strong external headwinds buffeting the country mean that its chances of galloping away from the pandemic have disappeared. It can nevertheless count itself lucky to have remittances and business process outsourcing supporting consumption. These two dollar earners have proven themselves relat...

The Argentine economy is becoming increasingly distorted
ARGENTINA · Report · 01 Dec 2022

The government's handling of the exchange rate is leading to increasing distortions in the economy, affecting both exports and imports. In terms of exports, the production of goods is becoming increasingly discouraged by the taxes imposed on it and by the arbitrary restrictions on imports of int...

Lula is negotiating the Transition PEC with several parties, amendments to the PEC have already been submitted, and the STF continues to discuss the Lifetime Review case
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Dec 2022

After a meeting with Senate President Rodrigo Pacheco, the PSD caucus said it would defend a two-year proposal. The PP also decided to support the PEC. The probability is for the PEC to be approved. Lula also met with several members of the transition team. This Thursday, the STF will continue to...

Essential CIS Politics: December 2022
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 01 Dec 2022 · 1 response

* Russia has become more diplomatically isolated but has drawn close to Iran. Russia and Iran's relationship is deepening. On November 5 Iran said it sold military drones to Russia but claims that was only before the Russia-Ukraine War began. Western countries have imposed additional sanction...

President Ramaphosa Finds Himself on Thin Ice- SA Constitutional Democracy is tested again.
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 30 Nov 2022 · 1 response

Yesterday, the Parliamentary Panel investigating President Ramaphosa's Phala Phala incidence handed out its report to the Speaker of Parliament, and she wasted no time to make it public. The Panel, chaired by the previous Chief Justice of the country concluded that: “In light of all the informati...

No surprises in October
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 30 Nov 2022

Rosstat reported that in October, the output of the five basic sectors was down by 3.2% y-o-y in October, which is a bit better than in September (down by 3.5% y-o-y). In 10M22, this output was down by a mere 1.1%, heading toward around a 2.0% contraction in 2022. Generally, it looks as though Ru...

EU Commission: dark grey smoke has risen in Brussels today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 30 Nov 2022

Well, the EU Commission has finally come out with its much-expected proposal on Hungary today, just as scheduled. On balance, it is more negative than positive, but not entirely negative from Hungary's perspective. And at any rate, the Commission did not say anything particularly surprising, espe...

Kazakhstan macro: seemingly slow growth amid decent budgetary performance
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 30 Nov 2022

While looking at some weather forecast websites, it is not unusual to see that in addition to the current temperatures, one may read that the weather “feels like” it is somewhat cooler or hotter – depending on various conditions, such as the strength and direction of the wind or the level of humi...

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