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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Government submits bill to authorize debt contracting for 2023
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 12 Dec 2022 · 1 response

The Executive Branch submitted to the National Congress a bill that authorizes it to contract the debt required to finance the 2023 public budget. The contract would be up to an amount of DOP363.3 b (USD6.58 b). The authorization contemplates the possibility of making the placement, partial or to...

Public spending accelerates, but deficit target seems intact
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 12 Dec 2022

The economy continues to slow, with 3.8% y/y growth in October 2022, 1 ppt lower than in September. Accumulated growth in January-October 2022 (5.2%) remains around the 5% potential level. Inflation saw its greatest reduction since April, with CPI rising 7.6% in November 2022, from November 2021....

Lula and Alckmin will be confirmed today, this will be a decisive week for the Transition PEC, and the STF will resume trial on the cases that question the constitutionality of the rapporteur’s amendments
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Dec 2022

After the confirmation ceremony, Lula should continue with the negotiations for the formation of his ministerial team. Aloizio Mercadante is a strong candidate for the Brazilian Development Bank (BNDES). The elected government has two major challenges regarding the Transition PEC. The first is to...

Tax revenues decline in November, but level remains high
ISRAEL · Report · 12 Dec 2022

* November witnessed a sharp decline in tax revenues mostly due to technical reasons, although a widening deficit is expected next year. * Business sector sentiment points to steady and positive economic growth. * We expect November’s CPI to reach 0.2% m/m, at the high end of consensus.

Tax revenues decline in November, but level remains high
ISRAEL · In Brief · 11 Dec 2022

Tax revenues on a downward trend In November, the fiscal deficit reached 1.2bn ILS (0.5bn last year), and the fiscal surplus in the last 12 months reached 0.4% GDP (0.5% last month). Tax revenues are up by 14.8% y/y (nominal) in January-November while expenditures (non-Covid) are up 5.6% compared...

Indian PM cancels summit with Russia: Bloomberg
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Dec 2022

On December 9 it was announced that the summit has been called off the annual Russia India Summit. The rumor is that this is because of Putin's rhetoric on nuclear weapons use in Ukraine. Bloomberg said it has an unnamed Indian Government source. India does not wish to be perceived as unduly pro-...

GULF WEEKLY: Xi visits Riyadh, MBZ visits Doha, OPEC+ maintains quotas, Saudi & Dubai budgets
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 09 Dec 2022 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC+ stuck with its cuts but oil still dropped -10% this week to the lowest since 2021. * Changes made to Moody’s credit rating methodology are supportive of ratings for most Gulf states. * The UAE’s president made a sur...

Reassessing the odds of a pre-election “currency event”
TURKEY · Report · 09 Dec 2022 · 1 response

Since early this year one of the very key questions we’ve been focusing on has been the likelihood of another market turmoil à la December 2021 — or another “currency event”, so to speak — before the upcoming elections. As we approach the end of 2022, we thought it would be useful to offer a retr...

Peru Political Crisis - What's Next?
PERU · Report · 09 Dec 2022 · 2 responses

Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring GlobalSource Partners' Peru Analyst Alfredo Thorne as he discusses the ousting of Pedro Castillo as President after his attempt to dissolve Congress and what's next for Peru under newly sworn-in President Dina Boluarte.

Current account historically strong in 9M22
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Dec 2022

The Central Bank reported the current account continued to grow in 3Q22, albeit this surplus in 3Q22 was not as wide as in 2Q22 and 1Q22 – just $51.2bn versus ($76.7bn and $69.8bn accordingly). In 9M22, the current account surplus reached $225.7bn and is likely to widen to $270bn and possibly eve...

Lula will announce some of the members of his ministerial team, the Transition PEC will begin analysis in the House next week, and Lula’s confirmation ceremony will be held on Monday, December 12
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Dec 2022

Five names are expected to be announced today. According to Aloizio Mercadante, after the announcement, the ministers will start giving interviews and will reveal the structure of their ministries. Next week, the Transition PEC will begin its analysis process in the House. The PEC approved by the...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 09 Dec 2022

Nov 25 US: According to US Ambassador to the country, Mr. Rosenblum, the United States is actively cooperating with Kazakhstan in the search for alternative routes for oil exports from the republic Ministry of Industry and Infrastructure Development: Kazakhstan has worked out the opening of the t...

Another positive development as South Africa’s current account deficit narrows in Q3 2022
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 08 Dec 2022

Current account data released by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) today indicates that, in the third quarter of 2022, the deficit on South Africa’s current account narrowed from R107 billion in the second quarter to R18.1 billion. Relative to GDP, the current account deficit narrowed from 1....

The Senate approved the Transition PEC, the STF postponed the vote on the rapporteur’s amendments cases to next week, and Lula’s confirmation ceremony will be held on Monday, December 12
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Dec 2022

The Senate approved the Transition PEC as submitted by the Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJ). The amount of R$ 168 billion was maintained for a period of two years. If the value of R$ 145 billion is changed in the House, the text will have to return to the Senate for further analysis. The ...

Russia releases US basketball player
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Dec 2022

On December 8 Brittney Griner was freed as part of a prisoner exchange. She was arrested in February 2022 for possessing medical cannabis with a prescription. Russia does not recognize the legal validity of such prescriptions and gave her 9 years in jail. There are unconfirmed reports that the US...

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