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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Kazakhstan macro: The transformation of foreign trade flows will gradually reshape the economy
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 24 Apr 2023

The Kazakh economy continued to expand in 1Q23 as the short-term indicator grew 1Q23 by 5.1% y-o-y. Most domestically oriented manufacturing segments expanded rapidly in 1Q23, while export-oriented ones struggled to grow fast. Domestic demand continued to recover steadily as retail sales and inve...

The early evidence on benefits from China+1
INDIA · Report · 24 Apr 2023

Have the possibilities for India improved greatly, when many global firms view India as the “+1” in a China+1 sourcing strategy? We pull together the early evidence on 1) the share of India vs. China in US imports; 2) FDI into India; and 3) exports from India. There is low evidence in favor of a ...

Insecurity and violence overshadows Lasso’s impeachment in the news
ECUADOR · Forecast · 24 Apr 2023

The unceasing news of acts of violence and even massacres, both inside jails and outside them, have displaced news of Lasso’s impeachment, which should be the most important development for Ecuadorians at this time. However, there is evidence that Ecuadorians, who have been undergoing threats fro...

Introducing 2024 inflation scenarios
VENEZUELA · Report · 24 Apr 2023

Monthly inflation fell sharply in March to 4.5 percent from its February rate of 17.5 percent and its January 29.0 percent. Driving this result were exchange-rate stabilization, a bolivar drought, and continued weakness in consumer demand. Inflation in the year to March was 58 percent compared wi...

Labor market tightness eases
ISRAEL · Report · 24 Apr 2023

1. Job vacancies continue to decline, reflecting slowing growth and a looser labor market. 2. New home sales have declined sharply from historically high levels in 2022. 3. Israeli institutions are increasing their exposure to assets abroad, while limiting their FX exposure, at least for no...

Two interesting weeks ahead
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 24 Apr 2023

Between April 24 and 25, the International Conference on Venezuela convened by President Gustavo Petro will take place in Bogotá. And in the week of May 1, the Primary Commission, in charge of organizing the internal election process of the opposition candidate, is expected to announce the electi...

Checkpoint opened on border between Azerbaijan and Armenia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Apr 2023

On April 23 the land link between Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh was set up. Nagorno-Karabakh is legally Azerbaijani but has been controlled by Armenia since it took it in a war in the early 1990s. Nagorno-Karabakh is almost exclusively peopled by Armenians. Azerbaijan is supposed to allow Armenian...

Labor market tightness eases
ISRAEL · In Brief · 23 Apr 2023

Labor market tightness eases 24.4.23 Demand for workers declines Job vacancies in March declined to 131k from 135k in February and 152k one year ago (the highest level reached). The decline in job vacancies was witnessed not only in the high-tech sector, but in sales, construction, and clerical w...

Boric announces plans for Chile's lithium
CHILE · In Brief · 23 Apr 2023 · 2 responses

In a nationally televised address to the nation on Thursday evening, President Gabriel Boric announced his much-awaited plan for the future exploitation of Chile’s vast reserves of lithium. The Boric plan has five main elements: The creation of a national lithium company, with the goal of having ...

Russia intensifies recruitment
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Apr 2023

On April 18 a Russian newspaper, Novaya Gazeta Europe, reported the efforts, which include a campaign of 53,000 adverts on a social media outlet. This is a 7-fold increase on the 2022 recruitment campaign. The adverts are in pages related to employment, local media, medical services, libraries an...

Russia's new foreign policy
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Apr 2023

On March 31 a document was published expressing Moscow's worldview and aims. These have been published every few years since the dissolution of the USSR. The 9,000 word paper says Russia believes in human rights, international law and peace. It denounces the West for neo-Nazism and Russophobia. O...

Kazakhstan's sovereign debt market: positive vibes
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 21 Apr 2023

In 1Q23, the Ministry of Finance fulfilled 25% of its annual plan for local bond issuance. We do not rule out that the National Bank may begin a rate-cut cycle amid decelerating inflation, which may fuel demand for long-term bonds in KZT. An essential feature of the borrowing program this year is...

GULF WEEKLY: PIF gets another 4% of Aramco, Kuwait calls elections, UAE-Qatar embassies to reopen, Sudan conflict raises concerns
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 21 Apr 2023 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Gulf states called for an end to conflict in Sudan, where they have links to both sides of the military. * Saudi Arabia transferred 4% of Aramco to PIF, which will reduce central government annual fiscal revenue by 1%. * ...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 20 Apr 2023

Apr 10 KazTransOil: AD Ports Group (UAE) may contribute to an expansion of the production capacity of the Batumi Oil Terminal President: Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have opportunities to increase mutual trade turnover to $1 bln (compared to about $0.5 bln in 2022) President: Mr. Tokayev discussed w...

The Minister of the Institutional Security Cabinet resigned after images surfaced of him during the January 8 attacks, the government is trying to prevent the installation of a CPI on the matter, and Lula travels to Portugal
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Apr 2023

The Minister of the Institutional Security Cabinet, Gonçalves Dias, resigned after images surfaced of him at the Planalto Palace on the day of the January 8 attacks. In the images, he appears to be interacting cordially with the vandals. This week, Senate President Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG) postpo...

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