GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

The politics section of the monthly raises many questions, but answers few, because “events are afoot”, which could significantly alter forecasts. A more definite local elections and 2024 policy scenario will only take shape in mid-January. This being said, foreign policy turns out to be a mix...

Rate stability expected today (Monday) with a loosening bias

ISRAEL · In Brief · 26 Nov 2023

Geopolitics: Israel’s operation in Gaza has been put on hold for several days in exchange for the return of hostages. The ceasefire is expected to be temporary although the hostage release priority could delay the renewal of the military operation for longer than initially expected. Low level hos...

Dozens of Russian drones attack Kyiv

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Nov 2023

On the night of November 24 Russia launched its largest ever air attack on Kyiv. Ukraine said that it shot down 71 drones, which was almost all of them. They were said to be Shahed drones, which are Iranian designed. However, it is thought that Russia now has its own factory to make Shaheds. Ukra...

Growing number of Russians and Ukrainians want to end the war

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Nov 2023

On November 15 an organization called "Russian Field" carried out an opinion poll and showed that 49% of people wanted to negotiate an end to the war and 39% wanted to fight on. These figures have moved considerably in favor of peace talks since June 2023. The November 2023 poll also showed growi...

National Bank of Kazakhstan cuts the base rate to 15.75%

KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 24 Nov 2023

On November 23, the National Bank of Kazakhstan cut its policy rate by 25 bps to 15.75%. The regulator referred to slowing inflation (0.7% m-o-m and 10.8% y-o-y in October) and now expects it to fall to the 9.3%-10.3% range by the end of the year. Next year's inflation target remains unchanged at...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Is Tajikistan the weakest link in the CCA in terms of its ability to repay foreign debt?

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 24 Nov 2023

In 2020 the World Bank stated that in Tajikistan “the risk of debt default is high." Ever since, this assessment has consistently carried through a variety of analyses undertaken both by IFIs and rating agencies. For example, in its most recent review of the economy, the WB re-affirmed its judgme...

A good, positive surprise from the MPC

TURKEY · In Brief · 23 Nov 2023

The CBRT/MPC raised the policy rate by 500 bps to 40% today, above the consensus forecast, including ours, of 250 bps (see chart). The statement also provides specific forward guidance now, which reads as follows (link here): “The Committee assessed that the current level of monetary tightness is...

Putin says he is open to peace talks

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Nov 2023

On November 22 Putin addressed the G20 Summit by videolink. He said that everyone needed to consider ways to end the war, which he called "tragic". He blamed Ukraine for refusing peace talks. It is true that since mid 2022 Ukraine has refused to talk until Russia withdraws from Ukraine, including...

Russia: a brief market watch

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 23 Nov 2023

As the federal budget was in surplus for the last three months, it acted as a liquidity absorber from the money market, which pushed short-term interest rates above the key rate. Since mid-November RUONIA fluctuated within the 15.01-15.08% range, while earlier in November it was more than 50 bps ...

Philippine macroeconomy: not exactly a Goldilocks scenario

PHILIPPINES · Report · 22 Nov 2023

The first three quarters' data on the Philippine output performance shows some recovery, although it would be difficult to achieve the lower end of the output target of 6-7 percent for 2023. Growth drivers are challenged on both the domestic and global fronts. Inflation for the first ten months r...

The CAE may vote on the offshore funds bill, Deputy Forte should submit his report on the LDO, and the STF is expected to adjudicate the ICMS cases

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Nov 2023

The Senate Economic Affairs Committee (CAE) may vote on the bill that deals with the taxation of offshore and exclusive funds and the sports betting bill today. The two proposals can also be put to a vote in the Senate Plenary. Deputy Danilo Forte (União Brasil-CE), is expected to submit his repo...

Winter is coming, but what kind?

TURKEY · Report · 19 Nov 2023 · 1 response

Last week’s main topic was the infighting in the high judiciary, which has blown over in a couple of days, without anyone grasping what it was all about. This week witnessed President Erdogan’s return to “wolf warrior” diplomacy, sniping at Israel relentlessly and managing to offend his hosts in ...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi hosts Gaza summit, Bahrain’s non-VAT revenue disappoints, Dubai orders 140 planes

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 17 Nov 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC and the IEA continued to diverge sharply on 2024 oil demand projections, by 1.4m b/d. * The Arab-Islamic summit on Gaza in Riyadh produced strong rhetoric but no substantive actions. * Iran has indicated that it does...

China’s external constraints

CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 17 Nov 2023

Special points to highlight in this report: * We continued to see a slow recovery in growth in October along with, far more importantly, a slight improvement in the quality of growth, as consumption growth for the year outpaced GDP growth. But as always, nothing fundamental has changed. *...

Bulgarian elections narrowly drive wedge with Russia

CIS POLITICS · Report · 16 Nov 2023

Among various EU members, Bulgaria has a close cultural and historical affinity with Russia, but the two countries’ politics have diverged over the post-Soviet period. In the context of the Ukraine war, as well as redrawn energy pipelines, we examine how events in internal politics in Bulgaria lo...