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Zelensky in the US hears Ukraine will receive Patriot air defense
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Dec 2022

On December 21 the Ukrainian President arrived in Washington on his first trip abroad since the war began. The US announced a USD 1.85 billion aid package including air defense missiles. Zelensky is due to address the US Congress. He has met with Biden. The Patriot announcement had been leaked. T...

Russian macro: another year of shocks and uncertainty ahead
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Forecast · 21 Dec 2022

This year has been uneasy for the Russian economy, just like many other years in the past decade. The forthcoming years will be even more challenging as politics continue to dominate the economy – both in Russia and worldwide. The Russian economy will continue to undergo dramatic changes across t...

Three-cushion billiards
ECUADOR · Report · 21 Dec 2022

The battle between the Executive and the Legislature continues, and we foresee no improvement in the coming months. UNES and the rebels from Pachakutik have not and will not cease in their efforts to get rid of President Lasso — or at least make his life difficult. Social Christians accompany the...

Recent economic indicators are mixed; tightening still expected to continue
ISRAEL · In Brief · 21 Dec 2022

Hi-tech exports slow Hi-tech service exports declined in October by 3.5% compared to the level in Q3 (following growth of 3.6% q/q), and are down 2.4% y/y. Hi-tech services have been a major economic growth driver in 2020-2021 and appear to be decelerating as global hi-tech investments slow as we...

The House approved the basic text of the Transition PEC, the edits to the PEC will now be analyzed, and Lula is expected to announce more members of his ministerial team
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Dec 2022

Yesterday, the House approved the basic text of the Transition Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC). The voting continues today with the analysis of the edits. The term of the PEC was reduced from two years to one. Today, the Novo party's edit will be analyzed. This edit intends to remove the ...

Standard & Poor's upgrades Dominican Republic's credit rating
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 21 Dec 2022

The credit rating of the Dominican Republic granted by Standard & Poor's has gone from "BB-" to "BB". This is the first time that the country has obtained this classification. Standard & Poor's justified the decision in the good macroeconomic management of the country, expressed in its high rates...

No surprise at all from the MNB today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 20 Dec 2022

The Monetary Council left all policies unchanged today, in line with a strong analyst consensus expectation. Moreover, the Council made an attempt to say as little as possible, despite the fact that some basic statements had to be made on the Q4 inflation report, which they discussed today, and i...

The STF declared the rapporteur’s amendments unconstitutional, Minister of the STF Gilmar Mendes decided to remove the Bolsa Família program from the Spending Ceiling, and Fernando Haddad is expected to announce more members of his team
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Dec 2022

The STF decision has a direct impact on the vote on the Transition Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC), which is scheduled for today, December 20. The terms of the PEC are still being negotiated. Even with the decision of Minister Gilmar Mendes to remove the Bolsa Família payment from the spe...

Political system at a crossroads
PERU · Forecast · 20 Dec 2022 · 1 response

In this report, we offer our quarterly forecasts. We first discuss the unstable political situation, and explore the different scenarios that could play out following the ousting of former president Pedro Castillo. Then we discuss our macroeconomic forecasts. Since the risks are high, we introduc...

Putin visits Belarus
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Dec 2022

On December 19 Putin was in Minsk and met with Lukashenko. They discussed military cooperation. Belarusian-Russian drills are ongoing. Russian TV showed the drills. Putin said there is no plan to fuse the two countries. This was the first such presidential meeting in Belarus for 3 years. The US s...

Azerbaijan agrees to supply electricity to South-East Europe
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Dec 2022 · 1 response

On December 17 an agreement was signed. An electricity cable will go through Georgia and go under the Black Sea to Romania and on to Hungary. The agreement was signed in Bucharest with the presidents of all four countries present. The 1,200 km cable will take 6 years to build. The three receiving...

Monetary Policy Challenges In 2023: Global and Brazilian Economies
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 19 Dec 2022

By causing a succession of supply shocks, the pandemic raised inflation around the world. Indeed, virtually all countries reacted to the economic effects of the health crisis with huge monetary and fiscal stimulus policies, causing high inflation whose control now requires both a return to fiscal...

Politics: A reform designed to turn the clock back to the era of electoral fraud
MEXICO · Report · 19 Dec 2022 · 1 response

Minutes after President López Obrador’s political-electoral constitutional reform predictably went down to defeat in Congress earlier this month, he sent the Chamber of Deputies his 735-page draft of 500 changes to six ordinary laws to transform the National Electoral Institute (INE) and ostensib...

Chile's Constitutional Agreement: More Details and Responses
CHILE · In Brief · 19 Dec 2022

An update to our earlier report on the agreement reached on Chile’s new constitutional process. As we indicated last week, the process will begin with the selection by Congress of a Committee of Experts, to be followed by an election for a new constituent assembly, to be called a Constitutional C...

Will the Lula government be a broad front and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Dec 2022

This is the final week of activity for the year in the Legislative and Judicial branches. On Monday, the Supreme Federal Court (STF) decides on the constitutionality of the rapporteur's amendments. On Tuesday, the House may vote on the Transition Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC). The Budge...

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