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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The shock of lifting COVID restrictions will be counteracted
CHINA · Report · 30 Dec 2022

In early December, China abandoned the zero-COVID policy restrictions it had maintained for nearly three years. This move was followed by a rapid increase in the number of infections all over the country. There are still challenges ahead, but we believe the economy should return to normal growth ...

Russia arrests dissident politicians and journalists
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 30 Dec 2022

On December 29 police arrested journalists and politicians in seven regions on suspicion of disseminating falsehoods about the war. Many of those arrested are associates of Ilya Ponomaryov, who is a Russian politician who has lived in Ukraine since 2022. Ponomaryov was arrested in absentia earlie...

Rates expected to increase by 0.5% on Monday
ISRAEL · In Brief · 30 Dec 2022

Rates expected to increase by 0.5% on Monday On Monday, January 2nd, the Bank of Israel is expected to raise policy rates by 0.5% to 3.75%. This is our expectation, as well as that of the majority of forecasters (according to Reuters), although we cannot rule out a more moderate hike of 0.25%. Wh...

Life is not easy for any of us
CHILE · Report · 29 Dec 2022

Chilean economic activity as measured by the IMACEC grew in October, due to a temporary increase in mining and a recovery in commerce. But the 12-month variation of the IMACEC fell into negative territory. Retail sales also increased, due to a successful Cyber Day. But the outlook for consumption...

Oman and Qatar budget conservatively; Sharjah remains a concern despite a spending cut
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 29 Dec 2022

* Conservative oil assumptions were used by Oman ($55) and Qatar ($65). * These result in a budgeted -3% of GDP deficit for Oman and a 3.5% surplus for Qatar. * Oman’s spending (ex-fuel subsidies) is budgeted to rise by about 5% vs its 2022 outturn. * Qatar’s spending is budgeted to fall by -3...

Growth of 5.3%-5.5% likely for 2022; 2023 prospects look bright
INDONESIA · Report · 29 Dec 2022

Executive Summary This report will reach the readers at the end of the year of 2022. Therefore, in ending the year 2022 for the Indonesian economy, it can be concluded with high notes. The first high note was on the growth of the economy. IMF Managing Director in the middle of this year said ...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 29 Dec 2022

The FX market was volatile in December. The ruble dropped from R/$61 in the early month to R/$71-72 in recent days. On the one hand, some local investors decided to increase their FX exposure in anticipation of a contraction of the current account surplus. The latter is expected to result from th...

Growth outstrips consensus; new U.S. ambassador stirs the pot
PANAMA · Report · 29 Dec 2022 · 1 response

The official figures for economic activity published last week beat the consensus by a wide margin. Real GDP may increase 9%, higher than the 7.5% forecasts of rating agencies, private analysts, and international organizations. The sectors that most contributed were the traditional ones: wholesal...

Economic performance in November exceeded expectations
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 29 Dec 2022

Amid strong monthly economic growth in 4Q21, which caused a high base effect, the country's economic performance looked quite good as most indicators grew above m-o-m in seasonally adjusted terms, which resulted either in stronger y-o-y growth numbers or less significant contraction. According to...

A glimpse of better inflation prospects
HUNGARY · Report · 28 Dec 2022

Honestly, there was little reason to be very optimistic about Hungary, and about the whole of the CEE region, in most part of 2022. Yet in the last few weeks, a glimpse of better prospects for 2023 may have appeared suddenly. No, we do not share the optimistic official view that a recession of...

Russia accuses the US of ordering the assassination of Putin
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Dec 2022

On December 27 the Russian Foreign Minister made the extraordinary claim that the US ordered a ''decapitation strike'' on the the Russian President. Newsweek in September 2022 quoted an unnamed US military official who said that the US had considered an assassination plan for Putin when Putin kep...

CFK spoke after the government rejected the Supreme Court ruling
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 27 Dec 2022

Tuesday afternoon, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner (CFK) participated, with the background of the latest dispute of the government with the Supreme Court, in the inauguration of a sports facility in Avellaneda (a district of the Greater Buenos Aires area), accompanied by the governor of the Provin...

Kazakhstan Macro: Budgetary performance to remain stable in 2023
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 27 Dec 2022

Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Finance published detailed information on the country's budgetary performance in 11M22 along with the approved 2023 republican budget (and for 2024-2025 as well). As it follows from budget execution statistics, in 11M22 the revenue flow to budgets of all levels was stable...

Ukraine says grain yield down 40%
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Dec 2022

As of December 24 the grain yield is down because of the war, the Ukrainian Grain Association told AFP. The 2022 yield will probably be 65 million tons:the counting is not quite complete. In 2021 it was 106 million tons. The war has led to a paucity of fuel, fertilizer and workers. It has become ...

The monetary policy and exchange rate situation
INDIA · Report · 27 Dec 2022

Conditions on the INR market have changed; RBI now seems to be preventing an INR appreciation. Conditions on inflation have also changed: there has been a sharp decline in month-on-month price gains. When the Fed raises rates in coming months, there will now be a conflict at RBI. The exchange...

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