GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

Gain insight into Colombia's 2024 macro and political outlook with the slide presentation from our webinar, "Colombia in 2024: Fiscal, Inflation, Reforms and Politics".

Lira should meet with Haddad to discuss the payroll tax issue, the Ministry of Finance is considering ending the tax exemption on imports of up to US$ 50, and Lula plans to travel around the country this year

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Jan 2024

Today, the president of the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), is expected to come to Brasília to meet with the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad (PT), to discuss the payroll tax exemption. The Ministry is considering ending the import tax exemption on imported products of up to US$ 50, but this meas...

Haddad met with Padilha to discuss the payroll tax issue, Tarcísio publicly supported the re-election campaign of the current mayor of São Paulo, and the PT approved the affiliation of Marta Suplicy with the party to run for vice mayor of São Paulo

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Jan 2024

Yesterday, the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad (PT), met with the Minister of Institutional Relations, Alexandre Padilha (PT), to discuss the payroll tax issue. He did not say what the government's decision would be but said he would speak with President Lula to negotiate a solution. In the ...

Markets will be following fiscal adjustments closely

ISRAEL · In Brief · 14 Jan 2024

The fiscal deficit reached 4.2% GDP in 2023. Expenditures increased by 14.2% (mostly in Q4 due to the war) and revenues declined by 6.4%. The deficit is expected to reach 5.7% in 2024 and possibly higher. Fiscal financing will be diverse, both abroad and domestic, but will require large gross dom...

State of war

ECUADOR · Report · 12 Jan 2024

President Noboa sent last night the third urgent economic bill, which has one purpose only: to raise the VAT from 12% to 15%. The rationale for the decision is the need to raise financing for expenditures associated with security and for the state of war dictated last Monday in response to nation...

Mixed feelings about the December CPI-inflation data

HUNGARY · In Brief · 12 Jan 2024

The headline rate of CPI-inflation for December was reported at -0.3% mom, 5.5% yoy this morning. Core inflation was much stronger, at 0.2% mom and 7.6% yoy. Non-fuel inflation, which we also think is an important indicator, was 0.1% mom, 6.4% yoy. The yoy headline rate dropped sharply, from 7.9%...

UK Prime Minister in Kyiv

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Jan 2024

On January 12 Sunak made the unannounced visit. Like most leaders, he crossed the border from Poland and travelled by train. Sunak announced an aid package of USD 3.2 billion for 2024. This is USD 250 million more than 2023. Bear in mind that with inflation this is a small increase on 2023. Briti...

Politics: Opposition in need of new strategies as support slips despite widespread discontent with the incumbents

MEXICO · Report · 08 Jan 2024

As we continue our analysis of the latest GEA-ISA quarterly poll of registered voters, we see that while support for Claudia Sheinbaum remained largely unchanged at slightly above 50%, she grew her lead over Xóchitl Gálvez, for whom support fell by 4pp. The gap separating them widened from 19 to ...

Philippines inflation: establishing a downtrend?

PHILIPPINES · Report · 08 Jan 2024

The January 5 release of the December 2023 inflation rate report in the Philippines indicates another possible downtrend of the country’s price movements. The first episode occurred last year, when inflation fell from a peak of 8.7% in January 2023 and dropped consistently in the following months...

Could inflation surprise on the upside in 2024?

ISRAEL · Report · 08 Jan 2024

1. Policy rates were cut to 4.5% due to moderating inflation and a strong shekel; fiscal concerns were secondary. 2. We revised our inflation forecast up to 2.8% in 2024. 3. Higher shipping costs, pent-up demand, and a rebound in housing rentals are likely to push inflation higher.

Japan offers to fund Ukraine air defense

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Jan 2024

On January 7 the Japanese Foreign Minister made a surprise visit to Kyiv. She said that Japan will donate another USD 37 million so Ukraine can afford drone detection systems. These are important in air defense. The Foreign Minister's press conference was held in an underground bomb shelter due t...

Finance Minister Contreras resigns

PERU · In Brief · 04 Jan 2024 · 3 responses

This morning Finance Minister Contreras submitted his letter of resignation to President Dina Boluarte. In his letter he mentioned "lack of transparency," presumably from the presidency. Apparently, President Boluarte had been looking for a replacement since late December and had met with former ...

Largely good news on government finances

HUNGARY · In Brief · 04 Jan 2024 · 1 response

Yesterday's sale of $2.5bn of 12-year USD-denominated bonds by ÁKK was met by good demand, and pricing was significantly more favourable than a year ago. The new bonds were based on a $5.8bn book, and the yield came out at 5.74%, 180bps over the US Treasury bond expiring in November 2033. Last Ja...

Ukraine bombards Russian city

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Jan 2024

On January 3 Russia said that Belgorod was attacked by a Ukrainian missile. The city is close to the Ukrainian border and was hit by Ukrainian fire several times in December 2023. Russia regards these as terrorist attacks. Russia claims to have shot down a lot of Ukrainian missiles over Belgorod,...

Inflation ends 2023 at just under 65%

TURKEY · Report · 03 Jan 2024 · 1 response

Consumer price inflation was 2.9%, m/m, in December broadly in line with expectations, with the 12-month CPI inflation hence ending the year at 64.8%, up from 62% in November, which is in line with the CBRT’s latest forecast (mid-point %65) announced in the October Inflation Report. Monthly D...