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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Policy rates up by 50bp
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 16 Dec 2022

As widely expected, the Monetary Board of the BSP raised its set of policy rates by 50bp effective tomorrow. This brings the key overnight rate to 5.5%, the highest since end-2008. During the Q&A, BSP Governor Felipe Medalla said that there is no basis for ruling out further rate increases next y...

Webinar replay: Monetary policy balancing act: Brazil, Chile, Hungary, and Turkey
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 16 Dec 2022

Four countries ⁠— Brazil, Chile, Hungary, and Turkey ⁠— exhibit the full range of dilemmas faced by central banks in emerging markets. Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our analysts as they discuss how these countries will navigate their monetary policy challenges going into 2023 in ...

Two more ministers of the STF still need to vote on the rapporteur’s amendments case, the Senate should vote on the bill that provides for new rules for the rapporteur’s amendments, and the House should vote on the Transition PEC on Tuesday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Dec 2022

So far, nine ministers have voted on the rapporteur’s amendments case. The score is 5-4 against the rapporteur's amendments. Ministers Ricardo Lewandowski and Gilmar Mendes still need to vote. Minister Rosa Weber, president of the STF, postponed the conclusion of the trial to next Monday, followi...

I don’t think anyone expected COVID to spread this rapidly
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 16 Dec 2022 · 1 response

Special points to highlight in this issue: * COVID is spreading so rapidly in Beijing and throughout China that I think everyone was caught by surprise. There is a rising consensus that government officials mishandled the opening up, and there are several explanations for what happened, and wh...

Service price inflation continues
ISRAEL · Report · 16 Dec 2022

November’s CPI came in at 0.1% m/m and 5.3% y/y, in line with market expectations. Core inflation accelerated to 5.3% y/y from 5.0% last month as housing rental prices (OER) increased by 0.6% m/m and accelerated to 5.9% from 5.6%.

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 16 Dec 2022

The price cap on Russian oil, which the Western countries imposed recently (currently set at $60), caused only minor disruption for the market (if any) as Urals trades currently below this level. Markets capped the Urals price already long ago as the discount between Brent and Urals widened soon ...

The revised statistics suggested seasonally adjusted 3Q22 GDP grew Q-o-Q
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 15 Dec 2022

According to Rosstat’s revised numbers, the Russian GDP contracted in 3Q22 not by 4.0% as an earlier flash estimate showed, but by 3.7%. Rosstat also showed that the seasonally adjusted 3Q22 GDP was up versus the previous quarter (around 0.4%). It means that technically, Russia was not yet in rec...

Channeling Yogi Berra
COLOMBIA · Report · 15 Dec 2022 · 1 response

In the wake of the 2014-2016 oil price collapse, the COP/dollar depreciated 50% in nominal and 20% in real terms. Yet exports were far from experiencing a boost. The textbook effect from the devaluation on exports seemed to have stop working. But after the worst effects of the pandemic started to...

The elected government is having trouble moving forward with the Transition PEC, 10 more ministers of the STF must vote on the rapporteur’s amendments case, and the bill to amend the state-owned company law may be put to a vote in the Senate today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Dec 2022

At the moment, the government does not have the 308 votes needed to approve the PEC. The most controversial points — the value of R$ 168 billion and the 2-year term — continue to be problematic for legislators. The judgment of the rapporteur's amendments (RP-9) in the Supreme Federal Court (STF) ...

Stabilization at risk
VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Dec 2022

Monthly inflation for November jumped to 19.0 percent from 6.0 percent as a direct consequence of a 45.6 percent rise in the dollar against the bolivar. This bolivar plunge is the deepest seen so far this year. Central Bank of Venezuela (Banco Central de Venezuela, or BCV) foreign exchange interv...

Ekrem Imamoglu banned from politics, pending appeals
TURKEY · In Brief · 14 Dec 2022 · 1 response

IMPORTANT NOTICE OF ABSENCE: I shall be off the grid between 15 December and 6 January for family arrangements. I may not be able to respond to client inquiries in the interim. Pls contact GSP NYC office of Dr Murat Ucer’s Istanbul office in case of emergencies. An Istanbul court convicted Istanb...

Russia evades computer sanctions
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Dec 2022

On December 13 Reuters published a report showing that Russia has obtained USD 2.6 billion worth of IT components and electronics despite Western sanctions. Reuters and the Royal United Service Institute learnt this from an analysis of published Russian Customs Service data. Semiconductors were i...

Belarus carries out combat readiness inspections
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Dec 2022

On December 13 Belarus announced the move. Ukraine is keeping an eye on the situation. It could be that Belarus is worrying Ukraine in order to oblige Ukrainians to guard their northern frontier and thereby take the pressure off the Russians in the east. Belarus did this earlier in 2022. Civilian...

The Transition PEC may be put to a vote in the House this week, the STF will resume the trial on the cases that question the constitutionality of the rapporteur’s amendments today, and Lula announced new members of his future government
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Dec 2022

The president of the House, Arthur Lira, and the rapporteur of the Transition Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC), Elmar Nascimento (União Brasil-BA), have signaled that the proposal may be put to a vote this Wednesday or Thursday. The biggest concern is about changes in the text. If the Hous...

2023 Forecast: Growth and Disinflation will Sputter
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 14 Dec 2022

Please note that we have changed the final sentence of the sixth paragraph of our section “License 41 in a nut shell” and we have also changed the final sentence before Table 2 in the “2023 Forecast” section. Compared with the last seven years, during which economic contraction was strong and...

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