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West accuses North Korea of supplying Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Dec 2022

In November 2022 the US said that North Korea was selling shells to Russia to use in Ukraine. Russia has run down its stock of ammunition and missiles.  The UN put an arms embargo on North Korea in 2016. Arms sales would be a breach of this. North Korea and Russia deny any arms trade. North Korea...

The final week of activity for the year in the Judiciary and Congress, the Transition PEC should be put to a vote on Tuesday, and the STF continues to adjudicate the cases that question the constitutionality of the rapporteur’s amendments
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Dec 2022

This will be the final week of activity for the year in the Judiciary and Congress. The president of the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), scheduled the vote on the PEC for Tuesday. Yesterday, Lula had a meeting with Lira to negotiate the vote on the proposal. This Monday, at 10 a.m., the STF resumes t...

Economics: The risks that are apparent as 2022 ends will carry over into 2023
MEXICO · Report · 19 Dec 2022

The external environment for the coming year is expected to be complicated. Although inflation in the US and in the other major developed economies could ease somewhat, it will remain high and ensure that for a prolonged period we will see a continuation of the restrictive monetary policy and the...

Analysts expect no change in MNB interest rates tomorrow
HUNGARY · In Brief · 19 Dec 2022

The Monetary Council is scheduled to hold its last regular rate-setting meeting tomorrow. According to Portfolio.hu's poll, analyst are unanimously betting on no change in interest rates - the 18% O/N depo, the 13% base rate, and the 12.5-25% interest rate corridor. (For sure, the O/N depo rate i...

Core inflation accelerates, with higher service inflation
ISRAEL · Report · 19 Dec 2022

1. November’s inflation print reflects accelerating core inflation, especially in the service sectors. 2. We currently expect a 0.5% rate hike on January 2nd, with inflation accelerating and growth fairly steady. 3. The goods and services accounts reflect a shrinking surplus since the begin...

South Africa's ANC Elects its Top Leadership for the Next Five Years
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 19 Dec 2022

During a highly contested and tense Elective Congress over the past three days, the ANC elected its top leadership who will lead the Party to the next National Elections of 2024. Most importantly, in a much welcome vote of confidence in Ramapaphosa's reform, President Cyril Ramaphosa was re-elect...

Core inflation accelerates with higher service inflation
ISRAEL · In Brief · 18 Dec 2022

19.12.22 Core inflation accelerates to 5.3% Inflation in November was in line with expectations but the underlying trends remain worrisome. Core inflation accelerated to 5.3% y/y from 5.0% in October, with rental prices (OER) up 5.9% from 5.6%. Other services also accelerated. Housing purchase pr...

Intense Russian bombardment as Putin meets army chiefs
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Dec 2022

On December 17 Russian missiles rained down on Kyiv, Kharkiv, Poltava and other cities. Ukraine says 40 missiles were fired at Kyiv and 37 were shot down. Ukraine is happy about its increasingly sophisticated air defense. Nonetheless it cannot stop all missiles and drones. Russia was attacking en...

Russian diplomat in Africa injured by letter bomb
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Dec 2022

On December 16 a letter bomb in Central African Republic (CAR) wounded the head of the Russian cultural center. The letter addressed to him said, ''It was from all the French: the Russians to get out of Africa.'' The diplomat had already received death threats. The head of the Wagner mercenary gr...

GULF WEEKLY: Gulf mirrors Fed hike, UAE and Qatar surpluses in Q3, strong Saudi Q3 growth
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 16 Dec 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil rebounds partially as IEA lifts 2023 demand forecast. * All Gulf states bar Kuwait mirrored the Fed’s 50bp hike. * China faced criticism from long-time ally Iran for appearing to favor Gulf states. * Saudi non-oil GD...

Cortizo announces the intervention of the government in the commercial operations of Minera Panama, stopping production without a timetable to resume sales
PANAMA · In Brief · 16 Dec 2022

The Cabinet approved yesterday Resolution 144 that instructed three Ministers (Labor, Environment, and Commerce) to intervene in the operations and commercialization of copper mining in northern Panama after the failed renegotiation of the existing contract between Minera Panama (a subsidiary of ...

It’s Only the Beginning
VENEZUELA · Report · 16 Dec 2022

After the November 26 signing by Nicolás Maduro government and the delegation of the Unitary Platform their humanitarian agreement, heated rhetoric fills the air. The parties seem not to have the will or sense of urgency needed to move forward in the process. Although talks continue in Caracas...

Kazakhstan macro: The reality may look somewhat better than statistics show
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 16 Dec 2022

Despite several shocks, as well as elevated and uneven inflation, the Kazakh economy has performed relatively well, having weathered mini-storms associated with scheduled maintenance work on the country’s two main oilfields and problems with the CPC. At a glance, it looks as though in November, t...

Road to disputed Azerbaijan region blocked
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Dec 2022

On December 15 Russia voiced its disquiet because of heightened tension between Azerbaijan and Armenia. A road connecting Armenia to Nagorno Karabakh has been blocked since December 11. Nagorno Karabakh is home to 120,000 ethnic Armenians and virtually no Azerbaijanis but it is legally part of Az...

Ukraine defends the east as Russia warns West against arms shipments
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Dec 2022

On December 16 Ukraine was successfully defending itself in the Donbas. Russia is trying to take Bakhmut. On December 15 Ukraine said there were 23 air strikes and 4 missile strikes against Kharkiv but minimal damage was done.  On December 15 Kherson was deprived of all electricity due to Russian...

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