GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

Both Lira and Pacheco spoke about the need to regulate artificial intelligence. The regulation of Tax Reform was also mentioned. While Lira targeted his messages toward the Executive Office, Pacheco focused more on the Judiciary. Lira said that achievements such as the payroll tax exemption and P...

Bukele sweeps presidential and congressional elections

CENTRAL AMERICA · In Brief · 05 Feb 2024

by Félix Delgado and Fernando Naranjo According to official figures of the Supreme Electoral Court with 70.25% of electoral records processed, Bukele got 1,662,313 million votes, while the second place Manuel Flores from FMLN only 139,000 votes. Bukele announced his victory with more than 85% of ...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi slows oil expansion, IMF reveals stronger Oman surpluses, Kuwait budgets a big deficit, US soldiers killed in Jordan

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 02 Feb 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent crude eased back to $79, and OPEC+ delayed making a decision on Q2 output. * An Iraqi militia drone killed 3 US soldiers, the first during the Gaza war, with retaliation expected. * Qatar participated in Gaza ceasef...

Essential CIS Politics: February 2024

CIS POLITICS · Report · 02 Feb 2024

* Russia and Ukraine are bombarding cities with increasing ferocity. * Russia's presidential election looms in March, but no change is expected. * Ukraine’s ammunition and recruitment situations are becoming critical. * The Kazakh oil workers’ strike continued for a month but is still sma...

Hungarian veto on the EU's €50bn aid package to Ukraine has been withdrawn with unexpected ease today

HUNGARY · In Brief · 01 Feb 2024

Quite unexpectedly, but very positively from investors' point of view, today's extraordinary EU summit ended with a deal accepted by all member states, that means also by Hungary, in just a few hours after its start. Effectively, member states approved the original December proposal to provide Uk...

Russia: a brief market watch

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 01 Feb 2024

The FX market has not been not too active in recent weeks. The government keeps discussing an extension of the mandatory sale of FX revenues for exporters (currently, this regime finishes at the end of April), while the Central bank opposes the idea. From the fundamental point of view, current re...

EU passes EUR 50 billion aid package for Ukraine

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Feb 2024

On February 1 all 27 EU member states agreed to the package. The row over this has lasted for 6 weeks. Hungary had vetoed the package until now. The President of the European Council hailed the news. There had been talk of stripping Hungary of its voting rights if Hungary did not agree. Hungary h...

“They won’t let us govern”

COLOMBIA · Report · 31 Jan 2024 · 1 response

In reaction to the Procuraduría General’s three-month suspension of Foreign Minister Alvaro Leyva, President Gustavo Petro paranoically pointed to a conspiracy against his government. But events may suggest other conclusions: a mishandled bidding process that led to a probably successful suit by ...

Growth and advantages ahead

CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 31 Jan 2024

El Salvador will hold presidential elections on February 4th, with president-on-leave Nayib Bukele a leading contender. Despite strong arguments about the unconstitutionality of his running for another term, Bukele’s candidacy is now a certainty. New members of Congress will also be elected and,...

Base rate reduced by 75bps only today

HUNGARY · In Brief · 30 Jan 2024

At today's meeting, the Monetary Council decided to reduce the base rate to 10%, by 75 bps, despite a recent indication by the MNB that the monthly pace of rate cuts may be accelerated to 100bps this time. After the meeting, Vice Governor Virág said that the current level and direction of the CPI...

The Evergrande court case - what's next?

CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 29 Jan 2024

The Hong Kong high court ordered one of China’s largest property developers, China Evergrande Group, to liquidate, theoretically ending several years of uncertainty about the future of the developer. The court appointed a Hong Kong restructuring firm, Alvarez and Marsal, to handle the liquidation...

Politics: Violence, elections and political control—Part One

MEXICO · Report · 29 Jan 2024

In this issue of the Political Outlook we take a look at the interrelated questions of the presence of organized crime, its effect on local governments and authorities, and politically motivated violence on the part of such criminal gangs. The bottom line is that the expansion of organized crime...

What to expect from the municipal elections and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Jan 2024

In the last week of the congressional recess, the government is negotiating solutions to a series of disagreements with Congress. Payroll tax relief and vetoes of congressional funds continue to create tension. The president of the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), is trying to discuss friction between...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Cautious easing to continue in 2024

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 26 Jan 2024

With Uzbekistan opening up the monetary policy season in the Caucasus and Central Asia on Jan 25 by keeping its key rate unchanged, we delve into our views about how central banks will conduct their rates policy this year. While average CCA inflation peaked around mid-2022, the uncertainty su...

Kazakhstan macro: Domestic demand expands amid booming consumer credit growth

KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 24 Jan 2024

On January 19, the National Bank of Kazakhstan cut the base rate by 50 bps to 15.25%, which is still high as y-o-y inflation fell to 9.8% at the end of 2023. In December, m-o-m inflation reached 0.8%, implying about 10% annualized. Meanwhile, in recent months, the annualized 3M moving average inf...