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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Putin willing to talk peace in return for land
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Jan 2023

On January 5 the Russian Foreign Ministry said that the president is open to negotiations with Ukraine if Ukraine cedes the regions that Russia has seized. The statement came as part of the record of what Putin said in a phone call with his Turkish equivalent. Turkey wants a ceasefire and this wi...

Putin orders 36-hour ceasefire
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Jan 2023

On January 5 the Russian President said the ceasefire will be from January 6-7 over Orthodox Christmas. The Patriarch of the Orthodox Church called for a ceasefire, as did the President of Turkey. President Erdogan spoke to Putin on January 5 and suggested that there should be full negotiations. ...

Inflation continues to rise
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 05 Jan 2023 · 1 response

The headline inflation rate inched up from 8% in November to 8.1% in December, below the median analysts’ forecast of 8.3%. Month-on-month (mom) inflation rose 0.3%, weaker than the 0.9% mom increase in the prior two months. The better-than-expected outturn may be traced mainly to the decline in ...

Russia sends hypersonic missiles to the Atlantic
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Jan 2023

On January 4 it was announced on Russian TV that Russian frigates armed with Zircon missiles have been dispatched to the Atlantic. The frigate is the Admiral Gorshkov. Putin is presumably acting tough to deter the West from arming Ukraine and also to distract the Russian public from the recent se...

Record warm weather in Europe, gas reserves slightly up, gas price massively down
HUNGARY · In Brief · 04 Jan 2023

It seems that for now at least, Mother Nature is refusing to play to the hands of Vladimir Vladimirovich (Mr. Putin), whose not-so-secret objectives include making Europe truly feel the winter cold, as gas supplies are proving insufficient. In these days, most of Europe, including Hungary, is exp...

Russia struggling in Bakhmut as casualties mount
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Jan 2023

On January 3 Yevgeny Prigozhin said on Russian TV that fighting in Bakhmut is very difficult. Prigozhin is the head of Wagner Private Military Company. Wagner fights alongside the Russian Army. Prigozhin said that the Ukrainians had built excellent defenses. It is house by house fighting. He did ...

Russian gas exports to non-CIS countries down 45% in 2022
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Jan 2023 · 1 response

On January 3 Gazprom released the data. Gas exports outside the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) was 101 billion cubic meters in 2022. It was 185 bcm in 2021. The CIS is an organization that is open to ex-USSR countries, and most of them have chosen to join. The EU was the principal Gazpr...

Inflation ends the year under 65%
TURKEY · Report · 03 Jan 2023

Consumer prices rose by some 1.2% in December, with the 12-month CPI inflation ending the year at under 65% (64.3%), down from 84.4% in November, but markedly higher than 36.1% of end-2021. December CPI print compares rather favorably to the consensus (of around 2.6-2.8%) and our somewhat lower f...

Adios, interim presidency
VENEZUELA · Report · 03 Jan 2023

The interim presidency was born in January 2019 under the hypothesis that growing street protests and the Trump administration's maximum pressure strategy would lead to the early breakdown of the Maduro government. It expired in December 2022 in the worst possible way. The debate that led to its ...

Russian bombardment of Ukraine continues
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Jan 2023

On New Year's Day Russian missile and drone attacks continued. Ukraine said 4 people were killed and many were wounded. Russia continued to concentrate on the electric grid. Iranian drones were used. Ukraine said it shot down 45 drones. It claims a 70% success rate in destroying drones. The tempe...

Budget decree issued: a deficit of transparency
HUNGARY · In Brief · 02 Jan 2023

Just as expected, the government issued its decree to amend the 2023 budget on December 29. However, the decree did not include the whole set of documents, which are usually delivered to parliament for the discussion of annual budgets. As they have said, the budget will be handed in for ex-post a...

A somewhat dovish 0.5% hike, but much concern regarding fiscal policy
ISRAEL · In Brief · 02 Jan 2023

A somewhat dovish 0.5% hike, but much concern regarding fiscal policy The Bank of Israel pushed rates higher today by 0.5% to 3.75%, as widely expected. The monetary statement had a more dovish tone than in the past regarding inflation, which remains broad-based and impacted by domestic demand bu...

The 2021 GDP statistics revised up
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 02 Jan 2023

At the very end of 2022 Rosstat announced it had revised the country's national accounts for 2021. So far, only the annual figures have been re-appraised. As quarterly data remain unchanged, they do not match yet annual statistics (Rosstat plans to revise quarterly national accounts in April). Ac...

Putin's New Year's speech
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 31 Dec 2022

On December 31 the president delivered his traditional New Year TV address. He spoke from a military base near Ukraine. He was visiting troops including foreign volunteers in the Russian Army. The president awarded medals. He said that 2022 was ''pivotal''. He said Russia was fighting for ''true ...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi invests in Dubai and Oman, Q3 GDP stronger in Bahrain than Oman, Oman signs LNG deal with Japan
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 30 Dec 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Israel’s hardline government could undermine warming relations with the Gulf. * Saudi Arabia’s current account surplus rose to 17% of GDP, while Qatar’s was around 29%. * PIF invested another $0.9bn in Lucid Group and com...

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