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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

China’s tech crackdown is not over
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 20 Jan 2023

Shares in China’s technology sector have risen sharply due to a perception that the central government is relaxing its regulatory restrictions on the industry. This would be a mistake. Control mechanisms are in place that will hinder the industry’s growth. There are certain key sectors – namely, ...

President Lula will meet with the leaders of the three branches of government and Minister Múcio today, Minister Haddad and Lula will travel to Buenos Aires next week, and parties are forming alliances in Congress
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Jan 2023

Today, President Lula will meet with the leaders of the three branches of government and the Minister of Defense, José Múcio. The tone of the conversation should be one of alignment, especially within the military. Minister of Finance Fernando Haddad will travel to Buenos Aires with Lula next wee...

Will China’s property sector revive in 2023?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 20 Jan 2023 · 1 response

Special points to highlight in this issue: * After a terrible Year of the Tiger, the year of the Rabbit should be a year of recovery for the Chinese economy, driven by a partial reversal of last year’s contraction in consumption. I’ve been saying this for several months, however, and while I...

“Soft launch” for the Maharlika Fund
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 20 Jan 2023

In Davos for this week’s World Economic Forum (WEF), President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. had been busy making a pitch for investing in the Philippines. Bringing with him his economic managers and select members of congress, and with the country’s most prominent tycoons in tow, the message he conveyed...

EU proposes court to try Putin
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Jan 2023

On January 19 the EU Parliament overwhelmingly passed a resolution to create an international tribunal to prosecute Russian politicians and generals for aggression against Ukraine. The EU said this needs to be done because the International Criminal Court cannot try such suspects. The EU named th...

Government announces a debt buyback in an environment of ideological blinders
ARGENTINA · Report · 19 Jan 2023

Economic Minister Sergio Massa announced that the government would start a debt buyback program for Global Bonds, starting with a USD 1bn target for the short end of the curve, specifically for the Global 29 and Global 30. Given the recent peso weakness, in particular in the informal cash market ...

On spurious correlations, horses and carts
TURKEY · Report · 19 Jan 2023

As expected, the MPC kept the policy rate unchanged at 9% today, and began attributing the beginnings of a largely base effect-driven decline in inflation to its so-called “liraization” policies. The statement (link here) contained quite a few modifications compared to the last one, which we brie...

Minister Haddad returned to Brazil after three days of meetings in Davos, Lula gave an interview to Globo News yesterday, and Minister Marinho said that the minimum wage will remain the same until at least May
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Jan 2023

In one of his last meetings at the World Economic Forum, Haddad said that Brazil is getting closer to joining the OECD. But he stated that Brazil's accession process to the organization will still be reviewed. In an interview with Globo News, Lula criticized the autonomy of the Central Bank (BC) ...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 19 Jan 2023

The main event on the FX market at the beginning of the year was the decision of the Finance Ministry to start selling CNY from the National Wealth Fund, given that the budget revenues from the energy sector are likely to be lower than planned. The latter pushed the ruble up, and the exchange rat...

Ukrainian Interior Minister killed in chopper crash
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Jan 2023

On January 17 a helicopter carrying 14 officials crashed and all died. The crash appears to be unrelated to the war. The helicopter was sold to Ukraine by Super Puma from a range that was withdrawn years ago due to safety concerns. Russia has not claimed to have destroyed the helicopter. The Inte...

Russian macro: Contrary to a tradition, the 2023 budget is unlikely to be amended if the Brent/Urals spread remains wide
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 18 Jan 2023

At the very end of December, the Finance Ministry announced that federal budget expenditures exceeded R31.1 trln rubles in 2022, which meant that, after a series of amendments, actual spending last year exceeded the initially targeted amount by nearly one-third. It was already a tradition that th...

For your information: Erdogan declares early election date as 14 May
TURKEY · In Brief · 18 Jan 2023

To all of our audience, As we have predicted in our recent Weekly, Erdogan called for early elections on 14 May. Nevertheless, this is an announcement that deserves a Market Brief. Unfortunately, yours truly had to spend the day outside of his office for pre-arranged consultations with his Turkis...

Russian Defense Minister visits the front
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Jan 2023

On January 18 Sergei Shoigu visited Russian Forces in Ukraine to award medals. This was Shoigu's first visit to Ukraine since General Gerasimov was placed in charge of the campaign/ Russian TV showed a video of Shoigu addressing troops. He emphasized that it is vital to make sure logistics work w...

President Lula sanctioned the 2023 Federal Budget, he will hold an event today to discuss the minimum wage policy, and he will meet with the leaders of the three branches of government to ease tensions after the January 8 attacks
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Jan 2023

President Lula vetoed a total of R$ 4.2 billion, most of which would go to the National Fund for Scientific and Technological Development. President Lula will hold an event at 11 a.m. at the Planalto Palace today at which an interministerial ordinance will be signed for the creation of a working ...

Ukraine says 40 civilians killed by a Russian missile
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Jan 2023

The Ukraine War is intensifying. On January 16 a missile strike on an apartment block in Dnipro claimed civilian lives. Ukraine says up to 25 people are still trapped beneath the rubble. Zelensky said this was a war crime as it targeted civilians. The EU denounced the attack. The UN Secretary Gen...

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