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The government may submit a new bill to Congress on the Perse program and payroll tax relief for municipalities. The STJ should adjudicate the inclusion of energy tariffs in the calculation of the ICMS. Mauro Vieira talks about the government's foreign policy. This week's Talking Points: ...

Polls reflect drop in government’s approval ratings, the House continues to elect presidencies of the permanent committees, and the STJ may adjudicate the case on the calculation of the ICMS tax

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Mar 2024

Last week, polls from three institutes (IPEC, Atlas, and Quaest/Genial) showed a drop in the government's ratings and raised concerns, especially due to the upcoming municipal elections. With this, President Lula is expected to hold a ministerial meeting next Monday, March 18. Also this week, the...

It's crunch time, again

TURKEY · Report · 10 Mar 2024

With three weeks left to the poll day, available evidence suggests that CHP has wind in its sails, across the nation. Of course, this is part of the natural cycle of Turkish elections, where CHP always leads only to be defeated by last-minute “policy innovations” of Erdogan. Yet, this time around...

Quick thoughts on the Two Sessions

CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 08 Mar 2024

Special points to highlight in this report: * Although we can expect flexibility on the downside, China’s 2024 GDP growth target of 5 percent is nonetheless aggressive given the headwinds. There are debt constraints on a major revival of investment—whether in the property sector, infrastructu...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: CCA Quarterly Outlook

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 08 Mar 2024

We provide the quarterly update of our country “cheat sheets”. Since we published our 2024 Outlook, which we dubbed “Less growth, less risk”, the evolution of macroeconomic activity has been supportive of the idea of a slightly moderating pace of activity. Still, the start of the year has been st...

South Africa’s current account deteriorates further in 2023 while tourism continues to recover

SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 08 Mar 2024

Data released by the South African Reserve Bank indicates that the deficit on South Africa’s current account widened markedly, from R34.4 billion in the third quarter to R165.5 billion in the fourth quarter of 2023. As a ratio of GDP, the current account thus widened to a deficit of 2.3% in the f...

The House elected presidents of the permanent committees, Haddad meets with governors to discuss the Fiscal Recovery Regime, and the government’s approval rating drops

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Mar 2024

Yesterday, the House began the election process for the permanent committees of the House. The presidents of 19 of the 30 committees were elected. Deputy Caroline de Toni (PL-SC) was elected president of the Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJ). The Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, met w...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary

KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 07 Mar 2024

Feb 22 Bureau of National Statistics: Agricultural production in Kazakhstan increased by 0.4% y-o-y in January Bureau of National Statistics: In January, investments in fixed capital in Kazakhstan grew by 0.6% y-o-y Ministry of Industry and Construction: In 2023, coal production in Kazakhstan dec...

Gustavo Adriansén appointed new Prime minister

PERU · In Brief · 06 Mar 2024 · 1 response

Last night, Prime Minister Alberto Otárola resigned. He had been under pressure and turned into a drag on President Dina Boluarte. An edited audio released on a prime TV program Panorama on Sunday night had prompted his resignation. In this audio he is listened offering a job in the government to...

Industrial output fell, retail sales stagnated in January

HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Mar 2024

Overall, the first data on how output and demand did early this year, reported this morning, was disappointing. In seasonally and day-adjusted terms, the volume of retail sales did not change from December, despite hopes (though no outright forecasts) that the initial improvement recorded in the ...

South Africa’s economy escaped a technical recession in Q4-2023—but only just

SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 06 Mar 2024

Real GDP figures released by Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) yesterday indicate that South Africa’s economy barely managed to grow in the final quarter of 2023 following a contraction of 0.2% q/q during the third quarter. During the fourth quarter of 2023, real GDP recorded a growth rate of 0....

Haddad is expected to submit a bill on Perse and the payroll tax reduction for municipalities, mayors hold a demonstration in Brasilia in defense of payroll tax reductions, and Lula will meet with the governor of Minas Gerais

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Mar 2024

Yesterday, the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, said that he will send a bill to Congress on the Emergency Program for the Resumption of the Events Sector (Perse) and the payroll tax exemption for municipalities. The submission should take place next week. Today, the National Confederation o...

Russia publishes German Military communications about Ukraine arms

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Mar 2024

On March 1 Moscow proved it had hacked a call between the head of the German Air Force and an officer. The officers discussed British soldiers who are in Ukraine helping the Ukrainians with targeting but not actually fighting. There was talk of Germany maybe supplying Taurus missiles to Ukraine. ...

The forint continues its weak trend: here are two new negative factors

HUNGARY · In Brief · 05 Mar 2024

EURHUF continued to hover some 3% or even more above this year's starting level today. In addition to everything else known so far, two new factors have just shown up, which may reinforce the current, moderately negative sentiment towards the forint. First, the detailed Q4 2023 GDP data was publi...

Lula will meet with Senate leaders today to improve their relationship, the Ministry of Finance discusses Tax Reform regulation, and there is a new conflict between the Central Bank and the PT

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Mar 2024

Today, President Lula will meet with the president of the Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), and party leaders. The objective of the meeting is to improve the relationship between the Executive Office and the National Congress. Yesterday, Minister Fernando Haddad said that the government's idea is...