GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

Following a previous publication on the performance of the Russian industry in 2M24 (up by 6.6% y-o-y and by 8.5% y-o-y in February alone), Rosstat reported that the output of the five basic sectors (industry, agriculture, construction, trade, transportation) grew in 2M24 by 7.8% y-o-y. In Februa...

The AGU filed a request to extend the conciliation deadline in the Eletrobras case, Lula may issue an MP that could result in a 3% reduction in electricity bills, and the government will file a case against Pacheco’s decision on the payroll tax

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Apr 2024

Yesterday, the Federal Attorney General's Office (AGU) filed a request in the Supreme Federal Court (STF) to extend the deadline for conciliation with Eletrobras in the lawsuit that calls for greater government participation in the company. Also yesterday, the Minister of Mines and Energy, Alexan...

Healthcare reform sunk in Congress, but reform drive continues at full steam

COLOMBIA · In Brief · 03 Apr 2024

In spite of resorting to all the tricks in the known universe, the government could not stop the sinking of the healthcare reform in Congress, after 8 Senators in the 7th Committee presented a motion to sink it two weeks ago (Ponencia de Arichivo). After many days and weeks in which the governmen...

Kyrgyzstan introduces foreign agents' law

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Apr 2024

On April 3 President Japarov signed the act. The law requires many entities to register as foreign agents. The law is based on a similar one in Russia. The law will apply to many NGOs that receive funding from other countries. Those that are involved in what are deemed to be political activities ...

Peru: Prime Minister in Congress

PERU · In Brief · 03 Apr 2024

Prime Minister Gustavo Adrianzén and his Cabinet were in Congress this morning requesting the rejection to the no confidence vote. In his speech said that his priorities were the economic recovery and internal security. Although President Boluarte is under scrutiny on an apparent failure to decla...

March inflation: no major surprise

TURKEY · Report · 03 Apr 2024

Consumer prices rose by 3.2%, m/m, in March, somewhat below consensus (likely on the back of somewhat softer food inflation), with the 12-month CPI inflation nevertheless increasing further to 68.5%, from 67.1% in February. Domestic-PPI posted a 3.3% increase, which led to another relatively sign...

The Ministry of Finance was surprised by Pacheco’s decision on the payroll tax exemption, the House scheduled a meeting on April 16 to discuss this issue, and Tebet said she will include an annex in the PLDO on spending review

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Apr 2024

The Ministry of Finance was surprised by Senate President Rodrigo Pacheco’s (PSD-MG) decision to remove the resumption of the payroll tax for municipalities from provisional measure (MP) 1202. The decision has an estimated cost of R$10 billion and clearly has an electoral motivation. The Lower Ho...

Essential CIS Politics: April 2024

CIS POLITICS · Report · 02 Apr 2024

* Putin re-elected as president. * Terrorist attack in Moscow kills 140. * Russia pounds Ukrainian cities but gains little ground. * Ukraine is critically short of shells. * Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan open trade link.

CCA Highlights: Armenia boasts stellar early 2024 growth, Azerbaijan cuts rates, Georgia's outlook upgraded by Moody's, Uzbekistan sees continuing declines in gas output

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 28 Mar 2024

We comment on the key macro and political stories in the Caucasus and Central Asia: Armenia: Monthly economic indicator soars to 16.3% y/y in Feb Armenia: Budget posts large deficit in Feb Armenia: PM argues that GDP is growing above its potential Armenia: PM claims Azerbaijan may start war...

Politics: How voters are assessing the current administration’s performance in specific policy areas

MEXICO · Report · 25 Mar 2024

In the second half of our analysis of the GEA-ISA nationwide quarterly poll of registered voters conducted in early March, we turn attention away from matters of presidential approval and voter support for this year’s presidential candidates and political parties and focus on citizens' perception...

Economics: More signs of decelerating manufacturing as public finances and monetary policy raise concerns

MEXICO · Report · 25 Mar 2024

Economic data published this past month continued to bear out our projection of a slowdown in early 2024. As predicted, manufacturing contracted anew in January, largely in response to slackened demand from US industry. In Mexico, drivers of economic activity remain primarily domestic as the exte...

The Strength of Internal Demand and the Respective Risks

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Forecast · 25 Mar 2024

We have revised our growth projection for the year upward to 1.8%. Given the low carry-over from last year, this annual figure requires quarter-on-quarter marginal growth greater than the sustainable pace of output expansion, implying an additional decline of unemployment, and thus persistence of...

The goverment agenda begins to see progress and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Mar 2024

This will be a shorter week due to the federal holiday on Friday. The House is trying to vote on the new Bankruptcy Law and the bill on persistent debtors. Minister Fernando Haddad discusses the states' debt with the governors. This week's Talking Points: * Tax Reform regulation. ...

Machado names substitute candidate

VENEZUELA · Report · 25 Mar 2024

Maria Corina Machado waited till March 22, when the nomination period was already under way, to appoint Corina Yoris as her replacement candidate, stating that she embodies perfect opposition unity. During the press conference, Yoris had support from the parties grouped under the Unitary Platform...

The House may vote on the Bankruptcy Law bill and the persistent debtors bill this week, Haddad will meet with governors to discuss state debt, and French President Macron will visit Brazil this week

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Mar 2024

The president of the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), scheduled for Tuesday, March 26, the vote on PL nº 3/2024, which provides for changes to the Bankruptcy Law. Another matter that is causing tension in the House and that may be put to a vote is Bill nº 15/2024, which creates a tax compliance progra...