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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Finland expels 9 Russian diplomats
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Jun 2023

On June 7 Finland said that the diplomats were working in an intelligence capacity. Finland said this was a breach of the Vienna Convention. The Finnish Intelligence Service assessed the diplomats to be undercover intelligence officers and said the expulsions would seriously impair Russian intell...

Russian political/pandemic update: crises as usual
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 07 Jun 2023

It looks as though the mood of the Russian society was probably somehow shaken by drone attacks that occurred in several cities, including Moscow. Apart from that, May was a relatively quiet month for the majority of Russians (except for those living in the regions close to the Ukrainian borders)...

Lula is considering making changes to the ministerial team, the Working Group on Tax Reform approved the guidelines of the rapporteur’s report, and tomorrow, June 8, is a federal holiday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Jun 2023

Some changes in the ministerial team should soon take place. The goal is to improve the relationship with Congress. The ministries of Tourism and Communications will likely be changed. There are rumors in the market about Fernando Haddad replacing Rui Costa as Chief of Staff. Yesterday, the Worki...

Growing pains
PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 07 Jun 2023

With his high popularity ratings intact, President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. steps into his second year in office with another advantage: the business sector has become more at ease with his leadership style. However, he will have a tougher challenge growing the economy. Locally, GDP growth has slo...

The Federal budget in balance in April as spending moderated
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 07 Jun 2023

The Ministry of Finance reported that in 5M23, the federal budget deficit was almost the same as in 4M23 (R3.4 trln), implying that in April, it was balanced (in fact, there was a tiny surplus). Spending moderated last month as the ministry spent slightly over R2.0 trln. Average monthly spending ...

Industrial output fell further markedly in April
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Jun 2023

Industrial output shrank by 2.5% mom, 5.6% yoy in April, on seasonally and day-adjusted basis, following a 3.8% yoy decrease in Q1. This marks a downtrend that has been there since an all-time peak of output in September 2022. The level of output was 8.6% lower in April than at the September peak...

A moderate recovery of the South African economy avoids technical recession during Q1-2023; progress seen in increasing electricity generation capacity
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 06 Jun 2023

Real quarterly GDP grew by 0.4% in the first quarter of 2023. This was following a contraction of 1.1% q/q during Q4-2022 and an expansion of 1.8% q/q during the third quarter of 2022. Indeed, today’s GDP print showcases that the South African economy has reverted to pre-pandemic anemic growth pa...

Kahovka Dam blast: If you lose, destroy everything
UKRAINE · In Brief · 06 Jun 2023

On the night of June 5th, the Russians destroyed the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant dam. It is difficult for me to comment on how this incident might impact the ongoing counteroffensive. There may be some adjustments in plans and potential delays as a result. Crossing the Dnipro River to the ...

Lula signed the MP on the Desenrola debt renegotiation program, the rapporteur on the fiscal framework is negotiating changes to the text, and the report on Tax Reform is expected to propose a dual VAT
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Jun 2023

President Lula finally signed the Desenrola provisional measure (MP), and it was published in the Official Federal Gazette today. The program will begin in July and will include debts registered up to December 31 of last year. The rapporteur for the new fiscal framework in the Senate, Omar Aziz (...

Digesting Boric's marathon speech
CHILE · In Brief · 06 Jun 2023

President Gabriel Boric delivered his second state of the union speech last week. These speeches tend to offer summaries of accomplishments and lists of promises for the future, often sprinkled with figures and statistics. There was some of that on 1 June – certainly a lot of promises. But it see...

Economics: Robust remittance, tourism income and FDI numbers for 1Q22 while exports slowed
MEXICO · Report · 06 Jun 2023

A higher petroleum deficit and a more pronounced shortfall in primary income sent Mexico’s current account deficit for the first quarter of 2023 nearly 2.0 billion dollars above that of 1Q22, at the same time as the primary income deficit swelled by close to 4 billion dollars. Current account ...

Dam in Ukraine damaged possibly by Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Jun 2023

On June 6 Kakhovka Dam was partly blown up. Videos of the damage were shown by Ukrainian and Russian bloggers. The dam is in Russian-held territory and is vital for supplying much of Ukraine, including Crimea, with potable water. It is close to a nuclear power station that is now possibly threate...

A rather poor but unsurprising retail sales figure in April
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Jun 2023

Retail sales fell by 0.9% mom, 12.1% yoy on seasonally and day-adjusted basis in April. Previously, it decreased by 12.8% yoy in March and by 8.5% yoy in the whole of Q1. Overall, retail sales dropped by 10.4% yoy in the first four months of 2023. This sounds like a rather poor performance indeed...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Jun 2023

The avalanche of failures in the domestic political sphere and in the country’s positions in diplomatic questions requires a rearrangement. The luck of expanding GDP will not last long, and the negative effects of the fiscal-monetary conflict will persist. UNEXPECTED DEFEATS IN THE COUNTRY AND...

Politics: Gubernatorial results to set the stage for presidential nominations and battles to come
MEXICO · Report · 05 Jun 2023

On June 4 gubernatorial elections in the State of Mexico and Coahuila were held. Both states are currently governed by the PRI but as was expected by the polls, that party will only retain Coahuila. In the State of Mexico it was defeated with a 10-point difference by the Morena candidate, Delfina...

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