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Argentina’s political and economic landscape in the days before the primaries
ARGENTINA · Report · 02 Aug 2023

After becoming the pre-candidate of the government for the presidency, Minister of the Economy Sergio Massa concentrated his efforts on avoiding entering into arrears with the IMF. He did this despite the rhetoric in favor of disengaging from the supervision of that institution by the Kirchnerist...

Kazakhstan’s current account deficit in 2Q23 was a bit deeper than expected
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 02 Aug 2023

The current account turned deeply negative in 2Q23 ($2.7 bn), which brought the 1H23 deficit to $3.6 bn. Exports were down y-o-y by 12.3% in 1Q23 and 8.8% in 2Q23. Imports grew y-o-y by 41.3% and 24.7% in 1Q23 and 2Q23. The trade surplus shrank from $5.6bn in 1Q23 to $4.1bn in 2Q23. Generally, th...

The economy looks decent in 1H23, albeit inflation accelerates
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 02 Aug 2023

Rosstat reported that the output of the five basic sectors grew y-o-y by 8.9% and 3.3% in June and 1H23. Earlier Rosstat reported that industry was up by 6.5% and 2.6% over the same periods (also y-o-y). Agricultural output grew by 2.6% and 2.9% (same periods, also y-o-y). These numbers don’t loo...

Public budget amendment bill will increase the deficit for 2023
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 02 Aug 2023

Yesterday, the Government sent to the National Congress a public budget amendment bill for 2023. According to the Ministry of Finance, the “modifications in the Budget respond to the slowdown in economic growth, which has accentuated in 2023, attributed to various factors such as the decrease in ...

Boric's tax proposal: One more try
CHILE · In Brief · 02 Aug 2023

Recognizing that he lacks the political support to get a major tax reform through the Senate, President Gabriel Boric announced on Tuesday, August 1, a "Fiscal Pact". The first question is, in what way is this a pact, rather than just another tax proposal? With whom did the government pact? Judgi...

The vote on the new fiscal framework was postponed, the rapporteur for the Desenrola bill meets with the Ministry of Finance, and the Copom meets to decide on the basic interest rate (Selic)
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Aug 2023

With no decision on the timing of the Ministerial Reform, the vote on the new fiscal framework is no longer expected to take place this week. The postponement of the vote makes it clear that the government needs to include the PP and the Republicanos in the ministerial team. Today, the rapporteur...

Russia hit by more drones
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Aug 2023

On August 1 drones attacked Moscow and hit an office in the financial center. Vnukovo Airport was forced to stop take offs and landings for hours because of the presence of drones. Russia said it brought down 3 drones by shooting them or by electronic warfare. There were also attempted drone atta...

Loadshedding and logistical bottlenecks continue undermining South Africa’s economy
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 01 Aug 2023

• South Africa’s growth: As numerous negative shocks and other headwinds continue to adversely impact the South African economy, we expect growth to remain insipid for the rest of 2023. Intense load-shedding and the country’s continuing below standard rail and port infrastructure are deeply under...

Essential CIS Politics: August 2023
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 01 Aug 2023

* Russia extends the upper limit on the conscription age. * Assessments of the Ukrainian counter-offensive point to poor results. * Russia ends the Black Sea Grain Initiative. * NATO gives no time frame for admitting Ukraine. * Russia imposes national management on we...

Legislative activity resumes today, the government's main topic of interest is the CARF bill, and Senator Braga said he would present his work schedule on Tax Reform this week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Aug 2023

Congress resumes activity today, and the agenda is full. The president of the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), meets with party leaders to discuss the voting agenda. The government hopes to conclude the vote on the new fiscal framework in the House as soon as possible. In the Senate, the government's ...

Central Bank announced a pause in the monetary policy rate reduction path
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 01 Aug 2023 · 1 response

Yesterday, the Central Bank decided to maintain the monetary policy interest rate (TPM) at 7.75% per year. Both the permanent liquidity expansion facility rate (8.25% annually) and the interest-bearing deposit rate (6.75% annually) remain unchanged. The uncertainty in the international environmen...

A long way down
CHILE · Report · 01 Aug 2023 · 1 response

Economic activity continued to adjust in May. Manufacturing production saw a partial rebound, while consumption continues to adjust in line with income levels, and diminishing excess real household liquidity. May’s figures show that commerce stagnated, and annual contractions deepened. The high c...

Things are heating up
VENEZUELA · Report · 01 Aug 2023

While opposition primary elections face uncertainties and external and internal obstacles, the government is navigating toward poor quality elections bound to prolong Venezuela’s political conflict. A brief window of opportunity remains open for entering into internationally mediated negotiations...

Economics: Data released in July reaffirm the internal market as the main growth catalyst as trade continues to subside
MEXICO · Report · 01 Aug 2023

While the expansion of industrial activity actually accelerated above its average pace year to date in May, manufacturing abdicated its role as the main driver as it almost stalled. But the difference was more than offset by much stronger numbers from construction (thanks to civil engineering wor...

Armenia: Central Bank cuts policy rate as expected, further easing on the cards
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 01 Aug 2023

The Central Bank of Armenia cut the policy rate by 25bpts to 10.25 percent. This is the second cut since the earlier 25bpt move on Jun 13th. The decision now establishes a path in the easing cycle that we anticipate will bring the refinancing rate to 8.50-9.00 percent by the end of the year. The ...

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