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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Wagner leader says Bakhmut will not fall until March
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Feb 2023

On February 16 the head of the private military company said that the city will not be taken until March or even April 2023. Yevgeny Prigozhin posted these comments online and blamed the Russian Army for this saying it is too bureaucratic. He added that it is necessary to cut supply routes to the...

Policy rates up by another 50bp
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 16 Feb 2023

Following surprisingly strong January inflation, the Monetary Board today decided to raise its set of policy rates by 50bp, bringing the key overnight rate to 6% effective tomorrow, the highest since 2008. The BSP also raised its inflation forecast for the year sharply from 4.3% to 6.1% while kee...

January’s CPI surprises on the upside
ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 Feb 2023

January’s CPI surprises on the upside Inflation in January was up 0.3% and 5.4% y/y (accelerating from 5.3% last month). Market expectations (and ours) were for 0.1% m/m. Housing rental prices surprised on the upside, with OER accelerating to 6.7% from 6.3%. In addition, the seasonal decline in a...

Russia intensified attack on Vuhledar
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Feb 2023

On February 14 Ukraine showed footage of several damaged Russian military vehicles in Vuhledar, Ukraine. Beside the vehicles were what appeared to be the corpses of Russian troops. Vuhledar is 150 km from Bakhmut - a city that Russia is determined to take. Russia admits that Ukrainian resistance ...

Monthly headline inflation falls, while core inflation rises
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 15 Feb 2023

Inflation in December 2022 led the Central Bank to leave its policy rate unchanged at 8.5% on January 30th, 2023, arguing that the inflationary dynamics had responded to both the monetary restriction program and the subsidies implemented by the government. Although it emphasized sticking to the r...

The CMN will not change the inflation target tomorrow, the government continues to work toward approving the CARF MP, and Pacheco outlined the goals of the Senate at the CEO Forum
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Feb 2023

Minister of Finance Fernando Haddad confirmed yesterday that a change in the inflation target will not be on the agenda of the meeting of the National Monetary Council (CMN) tomorrow. The government continues to work intensely for the approval of the provisional measure (MP) that re-establishes t...

Robust GDP growth in 2022
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 15 Feb 2023

Kazakhstan’s Bureau of National Statistics reported that the country’s GDP grew by 3.2% in 2022 and, in nominal terms, reached KZT101.5 trln ($220.5 bn). Production of goods increased by 3.2% as the manufacturing segment of the industry grew by 3.2%, while mining contracted by 1.0%. The services ...

Head of Wagner said he is behind a troll factory
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Feb 2023

On February 14 Yevgeny Prigozhin said that he is behind the Internet Research Agency (IRA) in an interview with a German magazine. He said that the IRA was defensive because of anti-Russian propaganda. He had often denied that he is behind the Internet Research Agency (IRA). The IRA is based in S...

A political impasse; economy falls into recession; BCRP to start cutting rates in Q2
PERU · Report · 14 Feb 2023 · 2 responses

In this analysis we focus on the current political impasse, and its consequences for economic performance and monetary policy. With gridlock in Congress and the body’s related inability to approve early elections, public pressure may play a greater role. We argue that there are four possible outc...

Government allies continue to pressure the BC over interest rates, Roberto Campos Neto should be summoned to Congress after Carnival, and Lula relaunches the Minha Casa, Minha Vida program in Bahia
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Feb 2023

The National Directorate of the PT decided to support the summoning of the president of the Central Bank (BC), Roberto Campos Neto, to the National Congress. The party's resolution calling for Campos Neto's summons will be published today. In practice, the summons should only take place after Car...

Q4 GDP and December BOP data: no good, not bad
HUNGARY · In Brief · 14 Feb 2023 · 2 responses

Q4 GDP growth as reported this morning at -0.4% qoq, 0.9% yoy, following the downwardly revised -0.7% qoq, 3.7% yoy data for Q3. This means that the economy is now in the state of a technical recession, just as expected, despite the fact that the full-year growth rate was still 4.6%, because of t...

Economics: Employment in selected sectors remained weak at year-end 2022
MEXICO · Report · 13 Feb 2023

Some of the latest labor market indicators have given officials much to crow about. Formal sector jobs and pay continued to accelerate last year, with further improvements reported for January. But not all the numbers paint such a rosy picture. As informal employment soared amid the 2021 rebo...

Friction between the government and the Central Bank and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Feb 2023

The conflict between the government and the Central Bank is likely to continue. The PT directorate will meet on February 13 to discuss inflation and interest rates. Roberto Campos Neto gives an interview on the program Roda Viva. On Thursday, February 16, there will be a meeting of the National M...

Upward revisions for inflation and the exchange rate
VENEZUELA · Report · 13 Feb 2023

January 2023 data are telling us that current inflationary dynamics are strong. Inflation for the month reached 29 percent driven by an expansion in primary money in turn fueled by an atypical hike in public spending and weak central bank currency sales. Everyone’s talking about the minimum wa...

Populism, Inflation Target and Expectations
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 13 Feb 2023

With high inflation and clear evidence of slowing growth – which is nothing more than the cost paid to reduce inflation – President Lula has opened a campaign to increase the inflation target. With a discourse typical of a left-wing populist, he is accusing the Central Bank of protecting the elit...

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