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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

July inflation data matched analysts' median forecast exactly
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Aug 2023

This means 0.3% mom, 17.6% yoy as for the headline rate (see our previous note on the subject yesterday). Positively, core inflation was only 0.2% mom, 17.5% yoy, so it is now slightly below the headline rate. Non-fuel inflation fell to 17.2% yoy, as fuel prices rose by 21.5% over the past twelve...

Israeli saving institutions continue to purchase FX
ISRAEL · In Brief · 08 Aug 2023

Israeli savings institutions continue to increase their FX exposure. In June institutions (total sector: pension, insurance, provident funds) increased their exposure to 19.9% of all assets under management from 19.2% last month (16.5% in Dec 22). They increased their exposure to foreign assets t...

Politics: The current administration’s overhaul of social policy has left many of the poorest households without coverage
MEXICO · Report · 07 Aug 2023

Everything indicates that economic growth rather than different social policy programs has been the main factor explaining poverty reduction in Mexican society over the past seven decades. The 6% average GDP growth of the "Mexican Miracle’s" period of stabilizing development from the 50s to the 7...

Ministerial team changes likely ahead and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Aug 2023

President Lula may make changes to the ministerial team this week. On Friday, August 11, he launches the Growth Acceleration Program (PAC). Before that, he will participate in the Amazon Summit, in Pará. Senator Eduardo Braga will be formally selected as the rapporteur for Tax Reform. On Thursday...

The Start of the Monetary Easing Cycle
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 07 Aug 2023

Why did the COPOM decide to cut the SELIC rate by 0.5 percentage point, with five favorable votes against four votes for a decrease of only 0.25 p.p.? An initial interpretation is that the Central Bank yielded to political pressure from the government, which was indeed strong, and hence not only ...

Georgia bans export of US cars to Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Aug 2023

On August 2 Georgia made the announcement. It had already banned the re-export of EU cars to Russia in July 2023. Georgia presumably fears secondary sanctions if it does not do this. From January to July 2023 Georgia sold 3,786 cars to Russia worth USD 52 million. The Russian elite prefers to dri...

Pithy data commentary
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 07 Aug 2023

We report on the key data releases from the CCA region last week: * The Armenian central bank cut the policy rate as expected; further easing is on the cards. * July inflation in Armenia points to price pressures' reaching a bottom. * The Georgian central bank eases further; the ra...

President Lula may make changes to the ministerial team this week, Senator Eduardo Braga should be announced as the rapporteur for Tax Reform, and the president of the Central Bank will participate in a public hearing in the Senate
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Aug 2023

Last week, President Lula stated that he may make changes to the ministerial team this week. The main objective is to include the PP and Republicanos in the team. The entry of the two parties could increase the government's support in Congress to 364 deputies and 59 senators—at least on paper. Th...

Rapid wage growth likely to keep inflation elevated
ISRAEL · Report · 07 Aug 2023

1. Wage growth has accelerated in recent months, posing an increasing inflation risk. 2. The shekel remains volatile, reacting to political developments surrounding the judicial overhaul. 3. The BoI sees the possible worsening of the macro environment as a higher risk to financial stability...

July inflation data to show a sharp decline of the yoy headline rate tomorrow
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Aug 2023

KSH is set to release its July data for CPI-inflation tomorrow. There is no doubt at all that it will show a marked decrease of the yoy headline rate, because of a high base-period value: in July 2022, the monthly inflation rate was no less than 2.3%. In Portfolio.hu's usual analyst poll, the med...

Door to door imports: An attempt to put things in order?
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 07 Aug 2023

Door to door imports: An attempt to put things in order? Maritime imports via courier, the so-called "door to door" imports, haven't been shut down yet. According to Bloomberg On Line news on July 4, 2023, the Venezuelan government intends to bring order to expedited imports via maritime courier ...

Ukraine claims Russia attacked blood transfusion center
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Aug 2023

On August 7 Ukraine said a guided bomb hit the center near Kupyansk, in northeast Ukraine, killing 2 people. Ukraine provided photographic evidence. Zelensky said it was a war crime. He said those who did this were beasts and terrorists. If Russia did hit the transfusion center it might have been...

Rapid wage growth likely to keep inflation elevated
ISRAEL · In Brief · 06 Aug 2023

Wages continue to accelerate Initial data for average wages in June, reflect nominal growth of 6.3% y/y (for Israelis only, exc. foreigners), accelerating from 5.4% in May. Wages have accelerated in recent months on the back of a tight labor market, especially in service sectors. This is likely t...

Russian tanker hit by Ukrainian drones according to Russian media
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Aug 2023

On August 5 the tanker was allegedly hit in the Kerch Strait. This caused traffic to be stopped on the Kerch Bridge for about 3 hours. The bridge links Crimea to mainland Russia.  The chemical tanker SIG did not spill anything due to the drone attack. The tanker is under US sanctions for deliveri...

Petro's son claims illegal funding in presidential campaign; now what?
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 04 Aug 2023

Yesterday, in Nicolás Petro's (NP) trial, the prosecutor said that NP claims that illegal funding reached his father Gustavo Petro's presidential campaign.Could this process end up in Petro's being removed from office?We are not constitutional lawyers, but after doing some consultation, the next ...

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