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Topic of the week: Region moves into easing, with last holdout Azerbaijan signaling an end of the hiking cycle
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 23 Jun 2023

The CAUCASUS and CENTRAL ASIA WEEKLY starts with the topic of the week, which discusses the strengthening trend of CCA economies' exiting the rate-hiking cycle that prevailed over the last couple of years. Azerbaijan is the only holdout that has still not transitioned into easing, but even there ...

Confirmed: Wado de Pedro is the Kirchnerists' presidential candidate in the primaries
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 22 Jun 2023

Eduardo Enrique (aka Wado) de Pedro (WdP), current Minister of Interior and Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner´s (CFK) political dauphin will run as a presidential candidate for the newly renamed “Unión por la Patria” (UP – formerly FdT). In August´s primaries, he will face the other main candidate o...

Deciphering Erdogan’s road map
TURKEY · In Brief · 22 Jun 2023

Erdogan and his long-time companion Bahçeli came out of a very tough election marathon with smiles all around, but they didn’t make it clear what they planned to do during the next five years when they shall reign over Turkey uncontested. AKP's Manifesto for the 100th Anniversary of the Republic ...

Lira will meet with governors to discuss Tax Reform today, Zanin’s appointment to the STF was approved in the Senate, and the Senate approved the fiscal framework
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Jun 2023

The president of the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), is meeting with governors today to discuss Tax Reform. After the meeting, the rapporteur's report is expected to be submitted. There are still many questions and resistance to the text. As expected, Cristiano Zanin was approved by the Senate and wi...

Underwhelming hike, improved statement
TURKEY · Report · 22 Jun 2023

Under the new Governor Hafize Gaye Erkan’s stewardship, the 5-member Monetary Policy Committee of the CBRT hiked the policy rate (one-week repo rate) to 15% from 8.5% today, markedly less than the consensus forecast of 20-25%, which happens to be the first increase in the policy rate since Govern...

No change in monetary policy settings
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 22 Jun 2023

There were no surprises in today’s Monetary Board meeting. Authorities decided to keep interest rates steady, maintaining the key overnight policy rate at 6.25%. The BSP’s inflation outlook showed price increases easing over the medium-term. There were slight tweaks to the forecasts, with inflati...

Who wants to be president?
ECUADOR · Report · 21 Jun 2023

President Lasso has been governing under the mechanism of “cross death” for a little over a month and has sent two economic decrees for the approval of the Constitutional Court. The first one reforms income tax collections to benefit people earning below $3,000 per month, which will imply $200 mi...

Kazakhstan offers to broker peace in Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Jun 2023

On June 20 President Tokayev said he would like to see a ceasefire in Ukraine and said Kazakhstan would like to help to achieve this. He underscored that Kazakhstan cherishes its relationship with Russia. Russia is an ally of Kazakhstan in the CSTO and a member of the same economic bloc, the Eura...

Russian macro: The economy gradually adjusts to geopolitical changes
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 21 Jun 2023

Rosstat published 1Q23 GDP statistics (on the production side, so far), and it appears that the y-o-y economic contraction was not as deep as the previous flash estimate suggested. GDP fell by 1.8% y-o-y (instead of the 1.9% reported previously), which is not much compared with the -4.5%, -3.5%, ...

The rapporteur of the fiscal framework made four substantive changes to the text, the CCJ will hold a confirmation hearing for Cristiano Zanin today, and State Finance Secretaries will meet today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Jun 2023

The Senate will resolve the fiscal framework issue today. A vote in the Senate Committee on Economic Affairs is scheduled for this morning, and the issue will be put to a vote in the plenary this afternoon. The changes made by the rapporteur mean that the text has to return to the House. The vote...

Georgia: National bank holds rates steady, but only temporarily
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 21 Jun 2023

The National Bank of Georgia (NBG) kept the refinancing rate unchanged at 10.50 percent on Jun 21st. This follows the 50bpt rate-cut at the previous meeting in May and, in our view, does not signal a reconsideration of the decision to gradually enter a rate-cutting cycle. Rather, it signifies a c...

Azerbaijan: Central bank holds policy rate constant, signals end of rate-hiking cycle
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 21 Jun 2023

The Central Bank of Azerbaijan kept the policy rate unchanged at 9.0 percent on Jun 21st. There was some underlying intrigue in the runup to this meeting as monetary authorities were seemingly still not done with the rate-hiking cycle, having been consistently sending hawkish messages to the mark...

Improving inflation as the electoral countdown begins
ARGENTINA · Report · 20 Jun 2023

This Saturday, June 24, is the deadline to present the candidates for the primary elections. The extra-long weekend, which extends to today, should have given politicians time to ponder their propositions and options, particularly regarding whether Sergio Massa (SM) will or will not run as a pres...

Politics: AMLO sets the rules with a nudge from Ebrard, but risks to Morena unity remain
MEXICO · Report · 20 Jun 2023 · 1 response

After Marcelo Ebrard forced his hand the evening of June 6 by announcing he was resigning as minister of foreign affairs to devote all his efforts to campaigning for the Morena presidential nomination, President López Obrador set clearer rules for the campaign to choose his probable successor. Co...

MNB's Virág is hinting on the future path of rate cuts
HUNGARY · In Brief · 20 Jun 2023 · 1 response

At today's rate-setting meeting of the MNB, everything went as expected. The Council decided on a uniform 100 bps reduction of the O/N deposit rate, the repo rate and reverse FX swaps, leaving the base rate and the low end of the interest rate corridor unchanged. Mainly, the O/N depo rate (= the ...

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