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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Jul 2 -
Brazil Economics databank Jun 16
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Central America databank Jun 27
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Chile databank May 27
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Jun 5
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Dominican Republic databank Jun 18
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Ecuador databank Jun 20
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Gulf Countries databank Jul 4
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Hungary databank Jun 23
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India databank Jun 26
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Mexico databank Jul 1
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Panama databank May 13
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Peru databank Jun 27
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Philippines databank Jun 6
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Poland databank Apr 29
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Russia Economics databank Jun 16
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South Africa databank Jun 9
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Turkey databank Apr 24
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Ukraine databank May 12
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Venezuela databank Jun 4
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - CAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA: POLITICAL PASSIONS IN THE...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
A second electoral round with a huge surprise
ECUADOR · In Brief · 20 Aug 2023
With around 75% of votes counted at national level, it is certain that Ecuadorians will go to vote in a second round in which Luisa Gonzalez and Daniel Noboa will be seeking the presidency of the country. While the 33% vote for Gonzalez were somewhat expected and represents the hard vote for the ...
Zelensky visits Holland
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Aug 2023
On August 20 Zelensky was in the Netherlands to thank the Dutch for the F16 fighter jets they are gifting to Ukraine. The planes will probably not arrive by the end of 2023. 11 European nations are training Ukrainians on F16s. Only the Netherlands and Denmark have pledged to donate F16s. The plan...
Chinese Defense Minister in Moscow
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Aug 2023
On August 18 Li Shangfu ended a 4-day visit to Belarus and Russia. The aim of the trip was to deepen military ties. He met Putin, Lukashenko and the defense minister of both countries. Russian state media enthusiastically covered the visit. It proves that Russia is not alone in the world. Belarus...
Russian macro: the ruble - back to a normal trajectory
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 18 Aug 2023
After the Russian Central Bank hiked the key rate a few days ago, the ruble bounced back to the low USD/RUB 90s area, which currently seems a sort of comfortable equilibrium zone for the exchange rate. The CBR mentioned accelerating inflation as the main reason for the key rate hike, which seems ...
UN discusses Azerbaijani blockade of Armenian-held land
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Aug 2023
On August 16 the UN Security Council discussed Azerbaijan's blockade of the Lachin Corridor. But it did not decide on action. The Red Cross has said that it urgently needs to deliver humanitarian aid. The UN wants this to resume. Lachin is critically short of medicine and food. The Armenian ambas...
GULF WEEKLY: Saudi extends debt maturity, Iranian FM meets MBS, UAE trades oil in rupees
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 18 Aug 2023
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Saudi Arabia extended the average maturity of its local sukuk in a $10bn buy-back and issuance. * PIF could get a cash windfall of up to $8bn if SoftBank buys its Vision Fund holdings in Arm. * Iran’s foreign minister vis...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Continued pressure on Uzbekistani sum should make local currency investments challenging in medium term
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 18 Aug 2023
The decision last week to devalue the sum in a more forceful manner has led us to think deeper about an argument that we have been consistently making to clients, i.e., that macroeconomic developments that usually tend to influence currency movements will pale in comparison to underlying (and lar...
Allegations against Bolsonaro worsen, Congress is still waiting for ministerial reform, and the House may vote on the new fiscal framework next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Aug 2023
Yesterday (17), in a hearing of the Joint Parliamentary Committee of Inquiry (CPMI) on the January 8 attacks, hacker Walter Delgatti said Bolsonaro promised him a pardon if he was arrested for hacking electronic voting machines and stated that Supreme Federal Court (STF) Justice Alexandre de Mora...
New polls show an improvement in Lula’s rate of approval, the TCU postponed the adjudication of a case regarding board positions in regulatory agencies, and the negotiations on ministerial reform continue
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Aug 2023
Two opinion polls highlight the different situations of the country's two main political leaders. The approval of the Lula government (PT) reached 60% in the Genial/Quaest poll of August 16, an increase of four points in relation to the June poll. Another point of positive news for Lula was the i...
Still on pause
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 17 Aug 2023
As expected, the Monetary Board maintained policy settings for the third time, keeping the key overnight rate at 6.25%. In his first policy press conference, BSP Governor Eli Remolona reiterated that the authorities remain prepared to resume tightening if the need arises. After tweaking downwards...
South Africa’s political economy temperature is rising
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 16 Aug 2023
This week South Africa is abuzz with much political noise. To begin with today is the anniversary of the Marikana Massacre 11 years ago where 34 mine workers were mowed down by the police at Lonmin platinum mine, partly owned by President Ramaphosa, who then was a high profile and influential mem...
Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 16 Aug 2023
The rapid depreciation of the ruble became the main event in the past weeks (especially at the end of last week). Since the start of the month, it moved by more than 10% by August 15 (from R/$91.6 to $/R101) and encouraged the authorities to act. As a result, the CBR called for an extraordinary B...
Ukraine War close to a stalemate
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Aug 2023
The Ukrainian counter-offensive has continued in southern Ukraine and around Bakhmut. At the maximum point of penetration, Ukraine has advanced 18 km since the start of June 2023. Ukraine's objective appears to be to reach the Sea of Azov around Mariupol and thereby break the land bridge between...
Economy continues to grow amid some slowdown in the industry
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 16 Aug 2023
The Bureau of National Statistics reported that in 7M23, the short-term indicator (covering over 60% of GDP and involving six major sectors) grew by 5.3% y-o-y. In 1H23, the figure was 5.6%. Unfortunately, the Bureau provided no m-o-m and y-o-y numbers for individual months. Therefore, detecting ...
Recession continued in Q2 as well, analysts expected markedly better numbers
HUNGARY · In Brief · 16 Aug 2023
Preliminary Q2 GDP growth was reported at -0.3% qoq, -2.3% yoy on seasonally and day-adjusted basis. Analysts appear to be unhappy, as the median expectation was +0.3% yoy, -1.3% yoy. There was a downward revision of the Q1 data as well, to -0.4% qoq, -1.2% yoy, from the original actuals of -0.2%...