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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Fiscal deficit pushes higher despite robust tax revenues
ISRAEL · In Brief · 10 Mar 2024

The fiscal deficit reaches 5.6% GDP LTM The fiscal cost of the war in the first two months reached 17.3bn ILS (0.9% GDP), including most civilian support due to the war. Total expenditures are up by 44% y/y in Jan-Feb. Tax revenues surprised on the upside, reflecting stability y/y in real terms. ...

It's crunch time, again
TURKEY · Report · 10 Mar 2024

With three weeks left to the poll day, available evidence suggests that CHP has wind in its sails, across the nation. Of course, this is part of the natural cycle of Turkish elections, where CHP always leads only to be defeated by last-minute “policy innovations” of Erdogan. Yet, this time around...

Banking activities rising despite high interest rates?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 09 Mar 2024

Contrary to the expectations of many, the Philippine economy sustained its expansion at 5.6% in 2023 from an extremely robust growth of 7.6% in 2022. Indeed, this was lower than the official target of 6% - 7% and what is required to recover its previous growth path prior to the pandemic of 2020. ...

Zelensky delivers peace plan to Turkey
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Mar 2024

On March 8 Zelensky held talks with the Turkish President. The two discussed the war, joint military manufacturing and Ukrainian food exports crossing the Black Sea. This is of interest to Turkey since it buys Ukrainian grain and the rest passes through Turkish waters. Turkey is building corvette...

GULF WEEKLY: OPEC+ extends cuts, PIF gets more Aramco stock, Qatar surplus vs Kuwait deficit, Egypt devalues currency
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 08 Mar 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC+ extended its additional voluntary cuts for at least another quarter until June. * Hopes faded for a Ramadan ceasefire in Gaza, and the Houthis attacks headed up in the Red Sea. * The Saudi PMI rebounded strongly to ...

Quick thoughts on the Two Sessions
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 08 Mar 2024

Special points to highlight in this report: * Although we can expect flexibility on the downside, China’s 2024 GDP growth target of 5 percent is nonetheless aggressive given the headwinds. There are debt constraints on a major revival of investment—whether in the property sector, infrastructu...

Webinar Replay: Gulf Countries Regional Outlook
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 08 Mar 2024

What is next for OPEC+ in its 8th year of cuts? Is fiscal policy trending procyclical again? What are the risks to the GCC from regional conflicts? Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our "Gulf Countries Regional Outlook" webinar.

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: CCA Quarterly Outlook
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 08 Mar 2024

We provide the quarterly update of our country “cheat sheets”. Since we published our 2024 Outlook, which we dubbed “Less growth, less risk”, the evolution of macroeconomic activity has been supportive of the idea of a slightly moderating pace of activity. Still, the start of the year has been st...

Disinflation beat analyst expectations again in February
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Mar 2024

Headline inflation for February has been reported at 0.7% mom, 3.7% yoy, the latter marginally down from 3.8% in the previous month. Core inflation was only 0.2% mom, 5.1% yoy, the year-on-year rate moving down quite substantially, from the previous 6.1% yoy. Non-fuel inflation also dropped to 4....

Lula’s approval ratings have dropped below 50%, the government should submit a bill next week on the Perse program, and the STJ will adjudicate a case on the calculation of the ICMS tax
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Mar 2024

For the first time since the beginning of his term, the majority of Brazilians do not approve of the Lula government. Approval fell from 52% in January to 47% in March. Next week, the government should submit a bill to Congress that deals with the Emergency Program for the Resumption of the Event...

South Africa’s current account deteriorates further in 2023 while tourism continues to recover
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 08 Mar 2024

Data released by the South African Reserve Bank indicates that the deficit on South Africa’s current account widened markedly, from R34.4 billion in the third quarter to R165.5 billion in the fourth quarter of 2023. As a ratio of GDP, the current account thus widened to a deficit of 2.3% in the f...

Sweden in NATO irks Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Mar 2024

On March 7 Sweden formally joined NATO ending over 200 years of neutrality. The accession ceremony took place in Washington. Sweden developed an impressive military manufacturing sector because as a neutral state it could not always be sure of being able to buy arms. For decades Sweden had intero...

Four months to come up with a unitary candidate
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 07 Mar 2024

On March 5, the National Electoral Council (Consejo Nacional Electoral, or CNE) announced the date of the Presidential elections: July 28, Hugo Chavez's birthday. Weeks of conjectures and supposed "consultations" ended. The announcement triggers an electoral race full of obstacles for which the o...

Russian air strikes on Ukraine city as Greek PM visits
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Mar 2024

On March 6 Russia continued its aerial bombardment of Ukrainian cities. There were strikes on Odesa as the Greek Prime Minister was there. Russia has usually avoided attacking cities while a foreign leader is present. Kyriakos Mitsotakis was holding a meeting with Zelensky in Odesa. Mitsotakis wa...

Peru: Pension fund withdrawal
PERU · In Brief · 07 Mar 2024

The risk of a new pension fund withdrawal has increased recently, although we believe that the probability remains at 40%. Congress-member Jose Luna Galvez, owner of the Telesup University and Podemos political party, which has strong influence on Congress's Consumer Defense Commission, is pressi...

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