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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Wagner recruitment suspended
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Jul 2023

The Russian private military company has been a vital component of the war effort in Ukraine. At one stage it had 50,000 fighters. Wagner announced the suspension of recruitment on its Telegram page. Private companies were required to sign contracts with the Ministry of Defense by July 2. Wagner ...

The government without Bolsonaro and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Jul 2023

There will be a full agenda in the House this week. The agenda includes the bill on the CARF, the new fiscal framework, and Tax Reform. The Senate will hold confirmation hearings for Gabriel Galípolo and Ailton Aquino, for the Monetary Policy and Supervision directorates of the Central Bank, resp...

Economics: Data in June shows internal market as main growth catalyst, with inflation and exports subsiding
MEXICO · Report · 03 Jul 2023

As the internal market has emerged as the economy’s main growth driver, last week saw the release of Mexico’s monthly GDP proxy (IGAE) for April showing that economic activity has sustained a steady pace so far this year, growing a seasonally adjusted 3.3% during the month, in line with its avera...

Inflation slows further in June, NBK rate cut is on the agenda
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 03 Jul 2023

The Bureau of National Statistics reported that inflation slowed in June to 0.5% m-o-m and 14.6% y-o-y. Food inflation fell to 15.8% y-o-y. Inflation is decelerating faster than expected, which is a good sign as it opens up an opportunity for the National Bank of Kazakhstan to cut its base rate. ...

The House will focus on three matters this week, the Senate may hold confirmation hearings on the appointees to the Central Bank, and the CPMI on the January 8 attacks will hear from Bolsonaro’s former assistant
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Jul 2023

The agenda in the House is full. The three main matters are the bill that deals with the tie-breaking vote in the Administrative Council of Tax Appeals (CARF), the fiscal framework, and Tax Reform. In the Senate, the Economic Affairs Committee (CAE) should approve on Tuesday the two appointees to...

Essential CIS Politics: July 2023
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 03 Jul 2023

* Wagner Group seized Rostov but agreed not to march on Moscow as charges against Prigozhin were dropped. * The Ukrainian counter-offensive has made minor progress. * African peace envoys visited Kyiv and Moscow but did not bring peace. * Ukraine and Russia continue to bombard each o...

Steady economic growth and a weaker shekel will support tightening
ISRAEL · Report · 03 Jul 2023

1. Private consumption picked up modestly in March-May on employment growth and the public sector wage bonus. 2. The shekel continued to weaken last week as the coalition plans on pushing forward with part of the judicial overhaul. 3. Steady growth and a weaker shekel will support a rate h...

Growth exceeded our previous forecast for 2023, but in 2024 it will slow, regaining traction in 2025. Fiscal figures will be favored by Minera Panama's new royalties. Ricardo Martinelli's trial faces a verdict in early July
PANAMA · Forecast · 03 Jul 2023 · 1 response

Growth in the first quarter of 2023 exceeded expectations, much like analysts' forecasts for the global economy. According to our estimates, Q1 GDP may have grown between 9-10%, similar to the year-over-year increase of the Monthly Economic Activity Index (IMAE) through February. The resilience s...

PM Orbán is sailing against the winds in the EU once again
HUNGARY · In Brief · 02 Jul 2023

The EU Council held its semiannual summit meeting on June 29-30. The European media is full of the story that Hungary, this time together with Poland, the other usual suspect, once again blocked the consensus at the meeting. And yes, that is right, although the summit itself played a role only at...

Removable disqualification?
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 02 Jul 2023

The political disqualification of María Corina Machado is yet another obstacle that the Maduro government is putting in the way of elections. It is difficult to decipher the political rationality of what the government is doing, since it is making it easier for the opposition to achieve the cohes...

Spanish PM in Kyiv
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Jul 2023

On July 1 Pedro Sanchez visited the country and addressed the Parliament. He said the EU is unwaveringly committed to Ukraine. He asked Ukraine to continue to reform. Spain will provide USD 60 million in aid to rebuild Ukraine. Spain has also trained Ukrainian troops and provided it with tanks.  ...

UN finds that Russia executed 77 civilians
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Jul 2023

On June 27 the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (UNHRMM) said that the civilians had been killed while in arbitrary detention. UNHRMM said that 864 people had been arbitrarily detained by Russia: most of them men. Most of these detentions were held to be forced disappearances. UNHRMM...

How is the battle progressing? Slowly, but with persistence.
UKRAINE · In Brief · 01 Jul 2023

My foreign friends often ask me about my impressions of the counter-offensive. A month has passed since the major battle was announced, but the situation looks unsettling, with no substantial territorial gains to show for it. All the reports from Russian military bloggers about the loss of Wester...

Russian macro: The Russian economy in 2023—Transition 2.0 in progress
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Forecast · 30 Jun 2023

Recent statistics published by Rosstat suggest that the Russian economy continues to recover from the epic 2022 shock and multiple aftershocks that keep coming in the form of regular sanctions. Businesses and the economy in general had to react to these changes as it became clear to almost everyo...

Controversies, disappointments -- and surprises
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 30 Jun 2023

Costa Rica continues to struggle with political confrontation. Giving the fraught political conditions analyzed in our May report, controversial presidential proposals are not likely to make their way easily through Congress. Amid this climate, the government submitted five bills on fiscal matter...

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