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Playing catch up
TURKEY · Report · 16 Jul 2023

Our politics author will write his update separately in the next 24-48 hours, because of a few emergencies he had to attend to; please accept our apologies. We start this econ-only Weekly with a preview of this Thursday’s upcoming MPC/CBRT meeting, at which we think there is again a risk of un...

Azerbaijan and Armenia negotiate in Brussels as Baku criticizes Moscow
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Jul 2023

On July 15 the President of Azerbaijan met the Armenian Prime Minister. The EU facilitated the talks. This is the 6th time they have met since 2021. The President of the European Council asked the two leaders to return to Brussels in the fall of the 2023. The US had also hosted talks between them...

Wagner is and is not
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Jul 2023

On July 15 Ukraine said that Wagner is in Belarus. Belarus claims that Wagner troops are training the Belarusian Army. It was reported by Belarusian oppositionists on July 14 that 60 Wagner vehicles arrived in Belarus. But there were 25,000 Wagner troops in June 2023. The June Mutiny led to the a...

Ukraine admits its counter-offensive is not succeeding
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Jul 2023

On July 14 the head of the Presidential Administration said Ukraine's soldiers are not making rapid progress. Andriy Yermak acknowledged that the battles are very tough. However, he added that Western allies are not asking Ukraine to speed up. Ukraine still has not committed most of its troops to...

Putin hints he may end the Black Sea Grain Initiative
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Jul 2023

On July 13 he said that no concessions have been made to Russia about the BSGI. The BSGI was signed in 2022 and has allowed Ukraine to export 32 million tons of grain as well as sunflower oil. The BSGI expires on July 18. Turkey was instrumental in getting Ukraine and Russia to sign the BSGI. The...

2023 same as 2022
VENEZUELA · Report · 14 Jul 2023

According to our calculations, inflation for June reached 9.0 percent. According to the numbers of the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV), it was 6.1 percent. Both estimates exceed the 5.1-percent rate observed in May. Despite the slowdown in public spending, the authorities have not been able to b...

Once more inflation came in below expectations, yet the BCRA maintains interest rates
ARGENTINA · Report · 14 Jul 2023

Despite expecting some moderation in the inflation level, June's result was, once again, undoubtedly lower than anticipated. But what makes the June result more interesting than May's outcome is that its “more benign” results cannot be explained by mere seasonal factors, and the results were mor...

Deputy Sabino expected to replace Carneiro at the Ministry of Tourism, Barroso’s statement on “defeating Bolsonarismo” caused negative reactions, and Lula said the Desenrola program should be launched next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Jul 2023

The government officially invited Deputy Celso Sabino (União-PA) to replace Daniela Carneiro at the Ministry of Tourism. The government now hopes it can broaden the party's support in Congress. Celso Sabino's inauguration should take place next week. At an event of the National Union of Students ...

GULF WEEKLY: Gulf financing comes through for Pakistan and Egypt, Kuwait’s finance minister resigns, Bahrain’s current surplus narrows on weak oil output
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 14 Jul 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil is at its highest since April, and OPEC forecasts strong demand growth in 2024. * Saudi and UAE facilitated the IMF agreement with Pakistan with $3bn in deposits. * The UAE is also contributing $800m more to help Egyp...

Topic of the week: Headwinds for external positions mount
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 14 Jul 2023

Balance of Payment data for 1Q23, released for all of our countries except Tajikistan, suggest that headwinds for CCA external positions are gaining strength. This is generally driven by a combination of strong GDP growth spilling into imports and an emerging picture of moderating remittances fro...

Another downside inflation surprise
ISRAEL · In Brief · 14 Jul 2023

Another downside inflation surprise Inflation in June reflected price stability (zero change) and the annual rate declined to 4.2% y/y from 4.6% in May. There were several items which surprised on the downside including food items (up only 0.6%, half our estimate), housing prices remained nearly ...

Uzbekistan: Broad-based moderation of price growth in Jun to warrant further rate cuts
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 14 Jul 2023

Inflation dropped to 9.0 percent in June, the lowest level in the last 6 years. Headline CPI fell into single digits last month for the first time since Jan 2017. Inflation had been inching up over the course of 2022, hitting 12.3 percent YoY in Dec’2022 (9.8 percent in Jan’ 2022). However, favor...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 13 Jul 2023

Jun 30 KazTransOil: The company increases oil supplies from Kazakhstan to Germany through Russia's Transneft pipeline. Since the beginning of the year it exported 290K tons Poll: Analysts expected Kazakhstan's GDP to grow by 4.2-4.8% y-o-y in 1H23 Jul 3 Russia: Mr. Abayev, previously Deputy Secre...

Tax Reform continues to be discussed in Congress, negotiations on ministerial staff changes continue, and a decree on the sanitation sector was published today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Jul 2023

Despite the slower pace in Congress, Tax Reform continues to receive attention from the government and legislators. Yesterday, Fernando Haddad met with the rapporteurs of the proposal in the House and Senate, and the president of the Senate. Negotiations on ministerial staff changes continue at f...

Georgia: Trade deficit stabilizes, but remains large
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 13 Jul 2023

Trade deficit remained large over Jan-Jun, pointing to a deterioration of the current account deficit in 2023 against the backdrop of moderating remittances from Russia. Trade data as of Jun shows that the goods deficit remains large, running at US$8.7bn on a 12-month basis (Graph 1). The sizable...

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