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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

First time the BOP is indeed improving: a quick look at the preliminary May data
HUNGARY · In Brief · 18 Jul 2023

The following table gives you the key elements of the BOP for January-May, as % of GDP (sources: MNB, KSH): Clearly, there were improvements on all of the trade balance, the current account balance, the net financing requirement and the basic balance, despite the deterioration reported on net fac...

Global Inflation – A Complement
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 17 Jul 2023

In our last weekly report, “Global Inflation and Slower Growth: Consequences for Brazil”, we analyzed the reasons (fiscal and monetary) for the resilience of worldwide inflation. The objective of this report is to provide further information regarding the reactions in the monetary and fiscal fiel...

Politics: Opposition precandidate Xóchitl gains impetus; odds improve to eventually bring the MC on board
MEXICO · Report · 17 Jul 2023

Less than three weeks since Senator Xóchitl Gálvez surprisingly announced she would enter the presidential contest she has quickly gained momentum, as both endorsements and the latest polls show. In that short time, she has easily leapfrogged over all other aspirants to become the opposition’s st...

Haddad's honeymoon phase and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Jul 2023

This will be a slow week, with no activity in Congress. Federal Deputy Celso Sabino should take charge of the Ministry of Tourism. President Lula will participate in the Celac-European Union summit in Brussels. This week's Talking Points:  * Legislative balance: positive * Inc...

The Good Trade Balance and Current Account Balance Results
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 17 Jul 2023

Due to another rising cycle of international commodity prices, Brazil’s trade balance has improved significantly since 2020. According to Secex data, in the 12 months through June there was a surplus of US$ 72 billion, with exports of US$ 336 billion and imports worth US$ 263 billion. These expor...

Surging Chinese (and US) debt is structural
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 17 Jul 2023

Special points to highlight in this issue: * Both June and second quarter numbers were disappointing. I continue to expect growth to surprise on the upside in the second half of 2023, but only because there is increasing pressure on Beijing, worried about a disappointing first half of the yea...

Russia ends the Black Sea Grain Initiative
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Jul 2023

On July 17 Russia officially confirmed that it will not allow BSGI to be renewed. BSGI therefore ends today. It was launched in July 2022 and renewed twice. Russia suggested for a few weeks that it would not extend BSGI. On July 14 the Turkish president said that Putin told him that the deal woul...

There will be no activity in Congress this week, the mood in the Senate regarding Tax Reform is positive, and the CARF bill should be approved in August
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Jul 2023

This will be a slow week, with no activity in Congress. The mood in the Senate regarding Tax Reform is positive. In the Senate, the Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC) on Tax Reform will be analyzed by the Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJ) before being put to a vote in the plenary. The...

China’s weak Q2 economic data
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 17 Jul 2023

China reported weak economic Q2 2023 data. GDP rose 6.3 percent. This was below median forecasts of 7.1 percent by economists surveyed by Bloomberg, but many sell-side economists may have been bullish in their forecasts for political reasons. Retail sales were anemic at 3.1 percent, and auto s...

Signs of inflation moderation
ISRAEL · Report · 17 Jul 2023

1. June’s CPI points to broad deceleration of inflation, both in goods and services, especially rental prices. 2. Growth in Q223 is likely to remain fairly robust on the back of strong exports of goods (defense exports mostly). 3. The shekel remains vulnerable to expectations regarding the ...

Quo Vadis Mr Erdogan?
TURKEY · In Brief · 17 Jul 2023

Executive Summary: Erdogan’s reinvention in progress, preview of a critical week and Ukraine grain deal This Special Brief is filed separately from our Weekly Tracker because of time differences between USA and Turkey, and my impending trip to NYC where I shall be visiting members of our GSP audi...

Azerbaijan: Inflation continues to inch down, but remains in double digits
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 17 Jul 2023

The Jun inflation print indicates that, albeit moderating, price growth momentum remains strong. Inflation in Azerbaijan had increased substantially from the lows of 2020 (2.4 percent YoY in Oct’2020) chiefly on account of food prices, but has stabilized in 2022 and so far in 2023, having only ma...

Economic growth remains stable in June and 1H23
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 17 Jul 2023

The Bureau of National Statistics reported that the short-term indicator (a monthly aggregate measure of economic activity in industry, agriculture, construction, trade, transportation, and communications grew by 5.6% y-o-y in 1H23, which was well above 4.5% y-o-y reported for 5M23. It means that...

Crimea Bridge closed
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Jul 2023

On July 17 Russian authorities said there was an emergency on Kerch Strait Bridge and two people had died. There are reports that there was an explosion. Russia has not said there was an attack. Russia said the road surface has been damaged. Ukraine has not commented on the bridge incident. Ukrai...

Signs of inflation moderation
ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 Jul 2023

Inflation in June surprised on the downside (as it did May) Core inflation slowed to 4.5% y/y from 4.9% in May and 5.3% in April. Prices of both goods and services (rental prices especially) have decelerated. We expect inflation to reach 2.6% in the coming year, as domestic demand slows, housing ...

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