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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

South African forex reserves are out of sync with rising external vulnerabilities
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 07 Jul 2023

Amidst elevated volatility, including a marked weakening of the rand over the past months, it is clear that the South African Reserve Bank still has no intention of intervening by using the country’s reserves, which include gold and other foreign reserves, as a buffer against foreign exchange pre...

Uzbekistan Primer
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 07 Jul 2023

As Uzbekistan heads into the Sun Preseidential Elections, we have taken this as an opportunity to provide a deep dive into the country. These are our key takeaways: Uzbekistan seems to find itself in a sweet spot as the opening of the commodity-exporting country in 2016/17 has started to bea...

Disinflation met positive expectations in June
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Jul 2023

CPI-inflation for June was reported this morning exactly as private sector analysts expected, at 0.3% mom, 20.1% yoy, falling from 21.5% yoy in the previous month. In fact, this was also the figure expected by the MNB for June in its recently issued Q2 inflation report, and it was only moderately...

Russia political pandemic update: Perplex, perplex, perplex
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Jul 2023

After nearly a year and a half since the start of the special military operation, it looks as though its timing and outcome are becoming less and less clear and obvious. Russia’s standoff with the West is set to last for generations, and what now happens in Ukraine might look secondary for histor...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 06 Jul 2023

The attempted military coup accompanied by a further escalation in Ukraine (with some media speculation about a potential “incident” at the nuclear plant) pushed the ruble exchange rate down. Ruble reached the R/$90 mark for the first time since March 2022. The narrowing of the current account su...

The House began analysis of the Tax Reform proposal yesterday, a series of tax changes should take place in 2026, and the Minister of Tourism is expected to resign today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Jul 2023

The House began analysis of the Tax Reform proposal yesterday after reading the report of Deputy Aguinaldo Ribeiro (PP-PB). The president of the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), said that the text could be changed by the time of the vote. The Social Contribution on Goods and Services (CBS) and the Tax...

Forint weakness is driven by EU report, budget, weak retail sales and industrial output
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Jul 2023

The forint suddenly weakened by some ten units or close to 3% against both EUR and USD over the last 24 hours. In a longer term perspective, this is not surprising, as EURHUF has become increasingly contractionary over the recent months: in June, its daily average level of 370.72 meant a 6.6% yoy...

China sets up observation station in Tajikistan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Jul 2023

On June 16 Chinese media reported that the station is for climate and environmental monitoring. The Tajik media has not said anything about it, which indicates that the government does not want people to know about it. The station is thought to be part of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The s...

On June inflation and a few other things
TURKEY · Report · 05 Jul 2023 · 1 response

Consumer prices rose by a somewhat lower than expected 3.9%, m/m, in June, with the 12- rate thus easing to 38.2%, from 39.6% in May, largely owing to – once again -- last year’s elevated base. Producer prices, reflecting a quicker pass-through from TL weakness, rose by a more visible 6.5%, m/m, ...

The House should vote on the CARF bill, if the Tax Reform proposal is not voted on this week it should be put to a vote in August, and the Senate is expected to vote on the legal framework for sanitation today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Jul 2023

The House postponed the vote on the economic agenda, the bill that deals with the tie-breaking vote of the Administrative Council of Tax Appeals (CARF), and the new fiscal framework to today. Regarding the CARF, the tie-breaking vote issue remains unresolved. Since the CARF bill has a constitutio...

Politics: Opposition coalition commits to presidential pre-nomination process, Xóchitl candidacy the big surprise
MEXICO · Report · 05 Jul 2023

Following months of wrangling between the three opposition coalition parties and civil society organizations and activists, both sides settled on the basic approach for choosing the person who will eventually be their 2024 presidential candidate. The rules, which offer a hybrid approach combining...

June inflation eases
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 05 Jul 2023

Highlights from today’s inflation report are as follows: The headline inflation rate continued to trend down to 5.4% in June from 6.1% the previous month and a high of 8.7% in January. Compared with the February to May months when month-on-month inflation rates were at zero or negative, June mont...

Signs of increasing wage pressure
ISRAEL · In Brief · 05 Jul 2023

Wage growth appears to be accelerating. Average wages in May were 5.4% above that one year ago, accelerating from 5.1% y/y in April (according to initial data from the CBS). Detailed wage data exists only for April and points to rapid wage growth in manufacturing (6.4% y/y), retail (6.6%) and foo...

Drone attacks on Moscow Airport
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Jul 2023

On July 4, 5 drones near Moscow Vnukovo Airport forced it to close for a few hours in the morning. There were no casualties. Ukraine unusually commented on the reports and hinted that it had sent the drones. This is worrying for Russia. This war was supposed to make Russia safer.  On July 4 Russi...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Jul 2023

The ineligibility of Bolsonaro can soften the current political polarization if the other side of the political spectrum adopts a constructive stance. Much is in play in Congress, which has two weeks to reach decisions on important themes like the fiscal framework, tax reform and CARF rules, amon...

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