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Wagner recruiting for missions for Africa
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Aug 2023

On August 21 Yevgeny Prigozhin released a video on the Telegram social media channel calling for men to volunteer. He said that Wagner will ''make Russia even greater on all continents.'' He said it would liberate Africa. It is unclear where Prigozhin was when he made the video in a desert locati...

The House should vote on the fiscal framework today or tomorrow, the House may also vote on the minimum wage MP, and the Senate CCJ holds a public hearing on Tax Reform
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Aug 2023

Yesterday, after a meeting with leaders, the president of the House assured that the fiscal framework will be put to a vote this week in the House. The vote could take place today or tomorrow. The House may also vote on a provisional measure on the increase of the minimum wage and the changes to ...

Is there a big leap in electronics exports?
INDIA · Report · 22 Aug 2023

Most global firms want to do less in China. This has created possibilities for the global supply chain to shift away from China. This has raised hope for India in a “China+1” sourcing strategy for many global corporations. In the aggregate, the gains in FDI or merchandise exports are small. In...

Centrist parties hit by accusations; economy enters recession; BCRP to cut rates in October
PERU · Report · 22 Aug 2023 · 2 responses

In this report, we offer an update on the Peruvian political scene; on the country’s economic performance; and on the timing of the first Central Bank rate cut. We argue that, while political risk has eased, President Dina Boluarte remains isolated and unpopular. The political capital of the two ...

Agreement reached to create an opposition alliance for 2024 elections
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 21 Aug 2023

Today the three main opposition parties of the Dominican Republic, PLD, FP and PRD, announced the creation of the opposition alliance Rescate RD (DR Rescue) to present common candidacies in the next 2024 elections. The agreement proposes 4 common candidacies to positions in the Senate of the Repu...

Economics: Unabated tide of remittance inflows stokes consumption but super peso and inflation take their toll
MEXICO · Report · 21 Aug 2023

One of the sources of income that explains the dynamism of consumption in Mexico at the end of 2022 and through the first half of 2023 is the level of remittances that have been flowing in from the United States, which as of June registered an 8.3% annual increase in US currency to total 5.57 bil...

Vote on the new fiscal framework and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Aug 2023

The House should vote on the new fiscal framework this week. In the Senate, the CARF bill should be put to a vote and the Tax Reform proposal should be discussed. President Lula participates in BRICS meetings and he should only make changes to his ministerial team after his return (27). This ...

GUATEMALA: New government, same challenges
CENTRAL AMERICA · In Brief · 21 Aug 2023

On August 20th, Bernardo Arevalo won the runoff presidential election with his party Semilla. He will be sworn as president for a four-year term in January 2024. This was the first time Arevalo, 64, fought for the presidency, which he achieved by beating former first lady Sandra Torres. Torres (6...

The (Mis)trust in the Quality of the Fiscal Framework
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 21 Aug 2023

With the modifications made in the Senate, the text of the fiscal framework has returned to the Chamber of Deputies for approval, so the final wording is still unknown. Nevertheless, it is already known that the increase, in real terms, of primary spending (to occur in an interval between 0.6% an...

Politics: Presidential nomination battles heat up as it becomes less clear who the future candidates will be just two weeks out
MEXICO · Report · 21 Aug 2023

Claudia Sheinbaum remains the favorite for the Morena presidential nomination and Xóchitl Gálvez for the opposition Broad Front for Mexico (FAM) with just over two weeks to go before the two coalitions that will face off against each other next year choose their respective standard bearers. Howev...

Pithy data commentary
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 21 Aug 2023

This is a summary of key data releases and news in the CCA: *Armenia: Core inflation in July drops to lowest since early 2020. *Armenia: Bond market reacts nimbly to rate cuts. *Armenia: Remittances in June entrench trend of normalization to pre-2022 levels. *Azerbaijan: Central Bank relaxe...

Slowing inflation could delay further tightening
ISRAEL · Report · 21 Aug 2023

1. Underlying inflation has moderated in recent months, pushing up the shekel depreciation threshold triggering a monetary response. 2. Second quarter GDP numbers point to deceleration. 3. There are growing signs of labor market slackness.

Mixed feelings about the fiscal figures of H1 2023
HUNGARY · In Brief · 21 Aug 2023

This time around, the MNB reported the general government sector's net financing requirement, which tends to be a good proxy for the general government balance figure, the main policy indicator of fiscal performance for any given period. For H1, the latter is due for release only on October 3. Th...

Lula participates in a BRICS meeting in South Africa, the House should vote on the fiscal framework this week, and Sen. Alencar should submit his report on the tie-breaking vote in the CARF
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Aug 2023

President Lula participates in a BRICS meeting in South Africa. He should only announce changes to the ministerial team after he returns to the country next Sunday (27). This week, the House may vote on the new fiscal framework. Today (21), Arthur Lira (PP-AL) has a meeting with the rapporteur, D...

Russian spacecraft crashes on the moon
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Aug 2023

On August 20 Luna-25 had a botched landing on the moon according to the Russian space agency (Roscosmos). Roscosmos lost contact with the craft. It is unclear what caused the problem. Luna-25 was scheduled to land on the moon on August 21. Roscosmos has growing problems due to being cut off from ...

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