The TSE will adjudicate the case against former President Bolsonaro, Minister Haddad met with the Minister of Labor to discuss the FGTS issue, and President Lula launches the new Harvest Plan
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Jun 2023

The Superior Electoral Court (TSE) will adjudicate a case against former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) that could render him ineligible for future elections. He is accused of abuse of political power and misuse of the media due to a meeting he held in July of last year with ambassadors, at the Al...

How will Beijing respond in the second half of 2023?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 27 Jun 2023 · 2 responses

Special points to highlight in this issue: * Growth will probably surprise on the upside in the second half of 2023 as Beijing, worried about a disappointing first half of the year, does all it can do to boost economic activity. * But what can it do? Consumption doesn’t seem to be revivin...

Kazakhstan Macro: Public finances remain in good shape
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 26 Jun 2023 · 1 response

Despite recent budgetary amendments, Kazakhstan’s fiscal situation looks stable as the country has enough reserves in the National Fund and runs the 2023 budget with an easily manageable deficit. The authorities have also a theoretical option to increase domestic borrowing in the case of unexpect...

The Copom’s Decision and Definition of the Inflation Target
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 26 Jun 2023

At its last meeting, the COPOM kept the Selic rate at 13.75%, and besides making it clear that “The current context, characterized by a stage in which the disinflationary process tends to be slower and in an environment of de-anchored inflation expectations continues to require caution and parsim...

Economics: Private consumption sustains momentum through April and May
MEXICO · Report · 26 Jun 2023

Last week saw the release of aggregate supply and demand figures showing that private consumption increased 4.5% in the first quarter, a result congruent with the firm GDP growth reported for the same period (3.7%). Even greater increases were reported in consumption of durable and semi-durable g...

Politics: Opposition coalition party leaders poised to announce presidential candidate primary contest
MEXICO · Report · 26 Jun 2023

Following the success of massive demonstrations called by civil society groups last November and February in defense of the INE and democracy, the leaders of the PAN and PRI spent many months stonewalling calls by those same organizers and many others for them to throw open their presidential can...

Best moment of the Lula III government and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Jun 2023

This will be a slow week in Congress. The National Monetary Council will discuss the inflation target. The Superior Electoral Court (TSE) is expected to conclude the judgment that could lead to the ineligibility of Jair Bolsonaro for future elections. Lula launches the 2023-2024 Crop Plan and may...

A slow week in Congress, state finance secretaries will meet to discuss the Tax Reform text, and the TSE may adjudicate the case against former President Jair Bolsonaro and render him ineligible for 8 years
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Jun 2023

Deputy Aguinaldo Ribeiro (PP-PB), the rapporteur for Tax Reform, presented his report on Thursday, June 22. Today, state finance secretaries will meet to discuss the text. Arthur Lira wants to vote on the proposal before the recess, which starts on July 18. On Tuesday, June 27, the Superior Elect...

The first nickel sulfate plant in the country commences operations
INDONESIA · Report · 26 Jun 2023

An Indonesian nickel company, PT Halmahera Persada Lygend, a joint venture between Harita Group of Indonesia and Ningbo Lygend of China, early this month commenced the operation of the world's largest nickel sulfate plant, in Obi Island, North Molluccas Province. This event marked the vertical ex...

A brief macro review: week of June 26, 2023
ISRAEL · Report · 26 Jun 2023

1. Recent economic indicators have been mixed, with manufacturing and exports expanding but PC demand weak. 2. Declining residential starts/completions will reduce supply and support some price pressure. 3. We still expect a rate-hold decision on July 10, but much will depend on shekel ...

Prigozhin agrees to stop his march and move to Belarus
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Jun 2023

On June 24 the head of Wagner ended his ''march for justice'' and said he would leave Russia in return for charges against him being dropped. He said he made the deal to avoid bloodshed. The President of Belarus brokered the deal. Wagner was said by many media to have caused the most serious chal...

Fitch Ratings affirmed its BBB/Negative rating for Hungary on Friday
HUNGARY · In Brief · 25 Jun 2023

Even though Fitch changed its BBB rating outlook from Stable to Negative in January, mainly on deficiencies of structural policy, and it said a few weeks ago that it still saw downgrading risk for the country, no downgrade took place this time. As suggested by its report, Fitch Ratings was appare...

Groundhog day economics
TURKEY · Forecast · 25 Jun 2023 · 1 response

In this quarter’s installment of our forecast report, produced in an environment of “radical uncertainty”, both domestically and abroad, we once again deviate from the traditional format and share some tentative thoughts and numbers on how the macro might play out until the local elections of Mar...

Israel Weekly Macro Wrap Up 25.6.23
ISRAEL · In Brief · 25 Jun 2023

Politics: Although the political environment remains uncertain, the worst-case scenario of replacing the committee to appoint Supreme Court judges with a majority of coalition representatives no longer appears to be on the table. Last week, two new members were appointed to the committee from the...

Arrest warrant for Yevgeny Prigozhin
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Jun 2023

On June 24 Yevgeny Prigozhin the warrant was for allegedly inciting an armed rebellion. Military vehicles have been put onto the streets of Moscow and other cities. The guard has been doubled at strategic locations. A 2 am on June 24 Prigozhin said that Wagner Group had returned from Ukraine to R...