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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

President Lula should make changes to his ministerial team this week, the new fiscal framework should be put to a vote, and the CDE may vote on Deputy Ortiz’s report on the payroll tax exemption bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Aug 2023

President Lula may meet this week with the president of the House, Arthur Lira, to discuss ministerial reform. The PP and Republicanos expect a decision in the coming days. This week, the House may vote on the new fiscal framework. Today, the rapporteur, Deputy Cláudio Cajado (PP-BA), will meet w...

Country Garden: further stress in China’s property market
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 14 Aug 2023

Country Garden, China’s second-largest property developer, has exhibited several signs of stress. It failed to inject additional funds into its developments and did not make payments on two bonds. Country Garden's June contracted sales at 17 billion yuan, according to CRIC's preliminary estimates...

Shekel depreciation increases the likelihood of further tightening
ISRAEL · Report · 14 Aug 2023

1. Pressure for shekel depreciation continues, increasing the likelihood of further monetary tightening. 2. We expect July’s CPI to reach 0.5% m/m on seasonal factors; Q223 GDP is expected to reflect growth of 2.8% saar. 3. The elevated risk premium for Israel has been translated into a we...

Kyrgyzstan: New military doctrine in a shifting Central Asia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 14 Aug 2023

Given the shifting geopolitical environment in the world, Kyrgyzstan is drafting a new defense policy for the country. Clashes with Tajikistan in 2021 left the country feeling exposed. And long gone are the days of leasing the Manas airbase to the US – with the latter having beaten a much-critici...

Economic growth in 2Q23 slightly exceeded expectations
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 14 Aug 2023

Rosstat reported that the country's GDP grew by 4.9% y-o-y in 2Q13. It was a flash estimate with no details. In a few weeks Rosstat will provide more color on 2Q23 economic growth, including nominal GDP numbers, including its sectoral structure, etc. Moreover, it may even update the aforementione...

Shekel depreciation increases the likelihood of further tightening
ISRAEL · In Brief · 13 Aug 2023

Shekel weakening continues Last week, the shekel declined by 0.9% against the basket and 4% YTD. The BoI views the shekel as critical for inflation, and sees the FX passthrough at 10%-20% having increased in recent months. In June, Israeli institutions were net purchasers of 0.8bn USD and 5.2bn i...

Russian Defense Minister inspects nuclear weapons
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 13 Aug 2023

On August 12 Shoigu went to the Russian Arctic. The Defense Ministry was eager that the media should report that he was looking at a nuclear arms test site. Sometimes Russia likes to remind the world of its nuclear deterrent. Russia has been expanding its bases in the Arctic for several years. Th...

UK announces new business-busting sanctions on Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Aug 2023

On August 9 London said this was the largest ever action it had taken to prevent Russia from obtaining military supplies. Businesses and individuals in Switzerland, Slovakia, Turkey and the UAE have been sanctioned. A Slovak has been sanctioned for allegedly attempting to broker an arms deal betw...

Russian moon mission
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Aug 2023

On August 11 Russia launched its first lunar mission since 1976. Russia's space sector has been sputtering for several years. Because of the war Roscosmos will not receive Western cooperation. The European Space Agency ended collaboration in 2022. The mission underscores Putin's claim that there ...

What to look for in Sunday’s primary elections?
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 11 Aug 2023

Contrary to previous primaries ahead of presidential elections, which, more often than not, were mere national polls with hardly any impact on who would be the main candidate, this time around, the primaries will have a more significant role in deciding Argentina’s electoral offer and with it, th...

Russian macro: thriftier economic growth amid currency “detoxication”
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 11 Aug 2023

The Russian economy continues to adapt to the new environment, and this adaptation will help it grow this year – possibly at 2.5%, with some potential upside. Although this year’s growth outlook doesn’t look impressive after last year’s GDP contraction by 2.1%, it seems more or less comparable wi...

GULF WEEKLY: Aramco’s $10bn performance dividend, China joins Ukraine talks in Jeddah, Dubai GDP up 2.8% in Q1
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 11 Aug 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil touched $88 on signs of a 2m b/d supply gap in Q3. * A US-Iranian prisoner exchange deal mediated by Qatar seems to be moving forward. * Aramco brought forward its $10bn quarterly performance dividend, which could bal...

Lula will announce the new PAC in Rio de Janeiro, the new fiscal framework should be put to a vote next week, and Braga should present his work schedule on Tax Reform at the Constitution and Justice Committee
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Aug 2023

Today, President Lula (PT) announces the new Growth Acceleration Program (PAC) in Rio de Janeiro. The funds are expected to total R$ 240 billion throughout Lula's term. On Monday, the rapporteur for the new fiscal framework in the House, Deputy Cláudio Cajado (PP-BA), and party leaders will meet ...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Has disinflation run its course?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 11 Aug 2023

While inflation in the Caucasus and Central is still heading lower, we investigate the factors that may change the current direction of price growth. While there are forces that would drive inflation in diverging directions, we see those that are keeping price growth in check prevailing in the m...

What does the stepwise devaluation of the Uzbekistani sum tell us about CCA currencies?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 11 Aug 2023 · 1 response

The Central Bank of Uzbekistan marked a fixing for the sum against the US$ for today, Aug 11th, at about 3.5 percent weaker than yesterday. This is virtually equal to the depreciation that the sum has seen against the US$ from Jan until Aug 10th. In a press release, the central bank argued that t...

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