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The stunning defeat of Messrs. Erdogan and Bahceli in municipal elections upset the political equilibrium. All actors, led by Erdogan, are scrambling to reposition to deal with the new reality. It is possible for the quest for a new equilibrium to result in a more normal, democratic and less xeno...

Armenia rocked by protests against ceding land to Azerbaijan

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 12 May 2024

On May 11 peace talks between the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia ended in Kazakhstan. The talks did not result in a treaty and both parties say they have not agreed on certain points.In Armenia there have been large scale demonstrations against handing over territory to Azerbaijan. T...

Ukraine to receive more arms

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 11 May 2024

On May 10 the US said it will give Ukraine another USD 400 million worth of military aid in addition to the USD 60 billion package passed in April 2024. Zelensky stated that Ukraine faces a very hard fight in the east. Russia regularly brags of taking villages however, it is clear that Russia is ...

Kazakhstan keeps utilizing budgeted transfers well ahead of schedule implying that tax revenues were poor in April

KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 10 May 2024

The Ministry of Finance reported that in 4M24, the National Fund grew from $63.7 bln as of January 1, 2024, to $64.9 bln as of May 1. In reality, it doesn’t mean that the authorities continued to build up international reserves, as in KZT terms, the fund shrank over the same period from KZT29.115...

PM of Russia reappointed

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 10 May 2024

On May 10, as we predicted, Mikhail Mishustin was given his job back by Putin. The State Duma voted for him with an overwhelming majority in favor, none against but there were some abstentions. Mishustin had to stand down as President Putin began his 5th term. Putin prizes loyalty above all else....

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi Q1 deficit, UAE trade talks with New Zealand, Israel assaults Rafah and bans Al Jazeera

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 10 May 2024 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC+ for the first time published a compensation plan for countries exceeding their quotas. * Israel began its Rafah assault, despite US opposition, after rejecting a Hamas ceasefire proposal. * Israel banned Qatari news...

A political victory amidst the darkness

ECUADOR · Report · 10 May 2024

The past referendum and public consultation gave President Daniel Noboa a victory on nine out of the 11 questions proposed. This was a setback for the Correistas, who were campaigning for a “no” vote on all the questions. The winning questions all concerned crime control measures, while the two r...

Fiscal deficit expands on rapid expenditure growth

ISRAEL · In Brief · 10 May 2024

The fiscal deficit in the LTM rose to 7% GDP in April from 6.2% in March, but excluding the seasonal delay in revenues, the deficit stands at 6.7%. Spending is up 36% y/y in Jan-April while revenues are down 2.2% (nominal). We note that expenditure not related to the war is up 11.7%, which we see...

Inflation's downtrend ended in April, just as expected

HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 May 2024

The headline rate of CPI-inflation was 0.7% mom, 3.7% yoy in April, the latter rising marginally, from 3.6% yoy in March. Core inflation still dropped, to 4.1% yoy in April from 4.4% yoy in the previous month. Non-fuel inflation also decreased, to 3.7% yoy from March's 4.1%. Consumer prices rose ...

Watch the (monthly) pace and hope for the best

TURKEY · Report · 09 May 2024

The CBRT released the second Inflation Report of the year with a nice and comprehensive presentation by Governor Fatih Karahan (see link here for the transcript, here for the presentation). We provide some relatively detailed highlights on the presentation and the Q&A session, followed by comment...

On Victory Day Putin says Ukraine War is like WW II

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 09 May 2024

On May 9 Putin addressed a crowd in Moscow at the annual commemoration for the end of World War II. Putin denounced Western nations for twisting the history of WW II and for causing conflicts. He railed against Western neo-imperialism and its support for what he termed "neo-Nazism". Putin claimed...

Relations between G7 and Russia at their worst

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 07 May 2024

On May 6 the ambassador was spoken to in the Russian Foreign Ministry because of statements made by their governments. London maintains that its ambassador was not summoned but attended an ordinary diplomatic meeting. The British Foreign Secretary said that it did not object to Ukraine's using Br...

Economics: Pemex crude exports fall as company and public finances continue to deteriorate

MEXICO · Report · 06 May 2024

Official information regarding the evolution of Petróleos Mexicanos' financial and operating situation, as well as the performance of public finances as of the first quarter of 2024 was released in the last few days. Pemex registered a relative improvement between January and March in some of its...

Beneath the diplomatic stand-off between the Philippines and China

PHILIPPINES · Report · 06 May 2024

This report adds new information about the economic implications of the China-Philippines maritime conflict to our previously published report "Diplomatic stand-off between the Philippines and China". It is best to consider that since the dispute is diplomatic, the solution should remain diplo...

An intense week in the Legislature and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 May 2024

This will be a busy week in Brasilia. Arthur Lira may announce the analysis of Tax Reform regulations. In the Senate, the bill that issues R$15.4 billion in credit for the government may be put to a vote. Congress meets to analyze presidential vetoes. The STF resumes adjudication of the state-own...