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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Steady economic growth and a weaker shekel will support tightening
ISRAEL · In Brief · 30 Jun 2023

Recent economic news has been on the positive side. Credit card purchases (in real terms, sa) increased by 1.2% in May following 0.2% in April (revised up from zero). Trend data points to growth of 1.1% saar in March-May following growth of 0.7% in the previous three months. Private consumption i...

The TSE should decide against former President Bolsonaro, the STF is expected to conclude the issue regarding the national nursing salary floor today, and the House may approve the new fiscal framework on Tuesday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Jun 2023

The Superior Electoral Court (TSE) should decide on the ineligibility of former President Jair Bolsonaro and the loss of his political rights for eight years, starting in 2022. Yesterday, the trial continued with a score of 3-1 against the former president. The Supreme Federal Court (STF) is expe...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi expat surge continues, strong UAE and Abu Dhabi GDP, Gulf leaders call Putin
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 30 Jun 2023 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Gulf leaders were among the first to call Putin after the Wagner mutiny. * There is a renewed threat of an oil blockade in Libya. Guyana said it won’t join OPEC. * The Saudi expat labor force rose by 4.6% q/q and 13.1% y/...

Topic of the week: CCA currencies off their peak, mild depreciation on the way
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 30 Jun 2023

The CAUCASUS and CENTRAL ASIA WEEKLY starts with the topic of the week, which discusses currency behavior in individual CCA economies. In particular, given the strong appreciation observed in the last year or so, we investigate the drivers of that robust currency performance and evaluate the degr...

Ukraine claims to be advancing as diplomacy stalls
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 30 Jun 2023

On June 29 Ukraine said it is moving forward in Donbas. Ukraine is attacking around Bakhmut: a city Russia took at enormous cost in 2023. Russia says it killed 2 Ukrainian generals and 50 officers in a missile strike on Kramatorsk on June 27. Ukraine says all those killed were civilians. Russia i...

IMPORTANT TRAVEL NOTICE
TURKEY · In Brief · 30 Jun 2023

I’ll be in USA between 30 June and September to attend to family matters. I’ll have little or no access to Internet between 30 June and 5 July. Please contact our NYC staff or my colleague Murat Ucer for questions and requests. Atilla Yesilada

A further reduction in the monetary policy rate.
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 29 Jun 2023

Today, the Central Bank of the Dominican Republic (BCRD) reduced its monetary policy interest rate by 25 basis points, from 8.00% to 7.75% per year. The rate of the permanent liquidity expansion facility (1-day Repos) was also reduced by the same magnitude, going from 8.50% to 8.25% per year, as ...

The TSE will resume the trial against former President Jair Bolsonaro, the CMN should decide on the inflation rate for 2026, and the Senate should vote on the CARF bill next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Jun 2023

The Superior Electoral Court (TSE) will today resume the trial of the case against former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) that could make him ineligible for future elections. He is accused of abuse of political power and misuse of the media due to a meeting held in July last year with ambassadors, ...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 29 Jun 2023

Jun 16 Bureau of National Statistics: Industrial production in Kazakhstan in Jan-May grew by 2.4% y-o-y Ministry of Agriculture: Kazakhstan allocated over $220 mln from the State budget for the creation of 65 dairy farms in 2023 Qazaqgaz: The company and Gazprom signed an agreement on the transpo...

Economy continued to recover in May
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 28 Jun 2023

Recent statistics published by Rosstat suggest that the Russian economy keeps recovering from the groundbreaking 2022 shock and multiple aftershocks that keep coming in the form of regular sanctions. The new data suggest that the output of the five basic sectors grew y-o-y by 2.1% in 5M23 and 8.7...

Russian bombardment of Ukraine allegedly hits restaurant
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Jun 2023

On June 28 Ukraine said that 10 people were killed in the attack on Kramatorsk and 61 wounded. Russia said once again that it only ever hits miliary targets. The restaurant serves many soldiers so Russia might consider it military.  Through the weekend of turmoil in Russia, June 24-25, the bombar...

Full-on campaign mode
VENEZUELA · Report · 28 Jun 2023

At first glance, it seems encouraging that political actors across the spectrum are focused on preparing for the 2024–2025 electoral cycle. But the electoral conditions are such that the elections are unlikely to help resolve the political conflict. The Maduro government is driving the pace of...

The first vote in the TSE was in favor of prosecuting former President Jair Bolsonaro, political pressure on the Central Bank increases, and today is the deadline for changing the new fiscal framework
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Jun 2023

Yesterday, Superior Electoral Court (TSE) Justice Benedito Gonçalves cast his first vote in the trial that could lead to former President Jair Bolsonaro's (PL) ineligibility for future elections. He voted in favor of prosecuting Bolsonaro. Pressure from the political sphere on the Central Bank i...

Revised figures out for Q1; the cumulative BOP picture looks better
HUNGARY · In Brief · 27 Jun 2023

The difference between preliminary and final (revised) BOP data tends to be significant, the main difference being that in the final (quarterly) data, much of the (normally big) errors and omissions balance (deficit) gets distributed between various parts of the BOP. And so it happened this time ...

On your marks, get set…
CHILE · Report · 27 Jun 2023 · 1 response

The April Monthly Index of Economic Activity (IMACEC) shows that the economic slowdown trend unfortunately continues. The weakness primarily stems from underperforming commerce and stagnant services. Nor is the manufacturing production index offering much reason to celebrate. Consumption continue...

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