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GULF WEEKLY: Adnoc Gas IPO soars, Bahrain MPs reject 2021 accounts, Russian firms in UAE sanctioned, Saudi FM visits Ukraine
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 03 Mar 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Iran is receiving a visit from the IAEA chief as worries grow about its uranium stockpile. * The first projects in KSA’s Shareek private investment scheme were announced, mainly by SOEs. * ACWA Power closed financing for ...

Better than expected, but still sticky
TURKEY · Report · 03 Mar 2023

Consumer prices rose by 3.15%, m/m, in February, lower than the market consensus of around 3.5%. Our forecast, at around 4.5%, was even higher, which was largely based on our assumption of quicker price increases in service categories. As a result, 12-month CPI rate eased further to 55.2%, y/y, t...

Down the rabbit hole (again)
PHILIPPINES · Report · 03 Mar 2023

We enter 2023 as if going down a rabbit hole, not quite sure if surprises ahead will be the pleasant or biting sort. Although global growth is still expected to weaken, China’s re-opening offers hope of larger rebound, especially in tourism. Too, although financial conditions remain tight, infl...

Is PM Orbán cautiously distancing himself from Moscow?
HUNGARY · In Brief · 03 Mar 2023

On March 1, the Russian government issued a decree to ban visa-free travel by Hungarian diplomats to Russian territory, "until Hungary does not stop breaching the provisions of the underlying bilateral agreement". It is not immediately clear in what way Hungary is breaching the agreement in quest...

LAST MINUTE: Aksener pulls out of the Nation Alliance
TURKEY · In Brief · 03 Mar 2023 · 2 responses

I’m not in the business of sharing breaking news with our audience, but this is so important that I decided to do so before I can gather my head and come up with a conclusion about election scenarios. After a six-hour meeting on Thursday it looked like the six leaders of the Nation Alliance had a...

Russia claims Ukraine is raiding across the border
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Mar 2023

On March 2 Russia's TASS news agency said that a small Ukrainian Army unit crossed the frontier and shot civilians. These fighters were mostly in civilian clothes. Russia has published photos and videos which purport to show Ukrainians holding flags near Bryansk. Some of these images have been ge...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 03 Mar 2023

Russian financial markets remain nervous. As the West imposed a next-in-turn package of sanctions last week and announced an intention to impose a "secondary sanctions" mechanism (i.e., tightening enforcement of the already imposed sanctions) market sentiment was negatively impacted. Markets also...

US and Russian foreign ministers meet
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Mar 2023

On March 2 at the G20 summit in India, Antony Blinken and Sergei Lavrov met. The two had an informal discussion. US sources said that Blinken told Lavrov that the US will stand by Ukraine for as long as it takes. The Russian Foreign Ministry said that the two men had spoken only very briefly. Eig...

Lula will sign an MP that makes changes to the Bolsa Família program, the increase in the export tax on crude oil faces resistance from Congress, and Lula’s interview will air today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Mar 2023

All beneficiaries will receive a minimum amount of R$ 600, and two complementary payments will be created to better meet the size and characteristics of each family. The relaunching of the program reinforces Lula's connection with the low-income population and re-establishes the social brand of t...

A decent start in January
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 02 Mar 2023

Rosstat reported that the output of the five basic sectors shrank by 2.5% y-o-y in January which was better than in 4Q22 when it contracted by 3.1% y-o-y. The performance of various sectors was quite uneven in January, but less so than in 2022. Industrial output and transportation services contra...

Essential CIS Politics: March 2023
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 01 Mar 2023

* Biden visited Kyiv and assured Ukraine of unwavering support. * Zelensky visited London, Paris and Brussels and received pledges of tanks. * Russia continues to advance in Ukraine but very slowly. * Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov continues tour of neutral states.

Monetary policy rate unchanged in March 2023
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 01 Mar 2023 · 1 response

The Central Bank decided yesterday to maintain the monetary policy rate at 8.5% per year, the same level in force since Nov 2021. The permanent liquidity expansion facility rate (1-day Repos) is also kept unchanged at 9% per year and the rate of remunerated deposits (overnight) at 8% per year. Th...

Federal taxes on gasoline and ethanol were reinstated, parties will meet in the House and Senate to appoint members of the permanent committees, and the pressure in Congress for a CPMI on the January 8 attacks continues
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Mar 2023

The published provisional measure reinstates the federal taxes on gasoline and ethanol, as well as establishing the rate of export tax on crude oil exports at 9.2% until June 30, 2023. The solution found was considered a victory for the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad. Today, the blocs and p...

US Secretary of State in Kazakhstan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Mar 2023

Antony Blinken held talks in Kazakhstan with President Tokayev. In Kazakhstan met the foreign ministers of Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. He then flew to Uzbekistan.  The US does not want Central Asian countries to support Russia over Ukraine. All five of them abstained in t...

Details of Minera Panama´s new contract remain secret. Implementation of the new base year improves the fiscal ratios slightly. The political scenario heats up fifteen months before the general elections.
PANAMA · Report · 01 Mar 2023 · 1 response

February is coming to an end, and there is no official indication that the conclusion of the new agreement between Minera Panama and the Executive will be reached in the coming weeks. The company indicated that it would phase down its mining and export operations and suggested that direct employm...

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