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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Economy keeps expanding in February, still unevenly
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 15 Mar 2023

Kazakhstan’s Bureau of National Statistics reported that in 2M23, the short-term indicator that captures aggregate economic activity industry, agriculture, construction, trade, transport, and communications grew by 4.0% y-o-y. Industrial output increased by 1.6% y-o-y (by 0.5% in the mining segme...

Lula says ministers must consult with the Chief of Staff before announcing measures, the standing committees in the House should be installed today, and the Tax Reform Working Group will hold a hearing on international best practices today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Mar 2023

Since the beginning of the mandate, some ministers have announced measures without negotiating them internally. For example, the Minister of Social Security, Carlos Lupi, spoke about modifying points of the Social Security Reform proposal. The president of the House, Arthur Lira, and party leader...

Inflation subsides, but drives economic activity lower
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 14 Mar 2023

Monthly inflation in February stood at 0.11%, its lowest level since May 2020, when the price collapse of the first four months of the COVID-19 pandemic ended. However, lunch has not been free, since the fall in inflation has been accompanied by a sharp slowdown in economic activity, which in Jan...

Russia's arms sales fall sharply
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Mar 2023

The Stockholm Peace Research Institute (SPRI) published on data March 13 showing that Russia's share of world sales has shrunk since 2018. In the 5 years prior to that Russia sold 22% of all the arms in the world. 2018-22 it sold 16% of all the arms. It is thought that arms sales will fall even m...

A New Set of Inflation Scenarios
VENEZUELA · Report · 14 Mar 2023

In February 2023, monthly inflation slowed down to 17.5 percent from its January rate of 29.0 percent. Its annual rate, however, rose to 385 percent from its previous 324 percent. The February slowdown in inflation is a consequence, on the one hand, of the third monthly drop in a row in privat...

Haddad says the new fiscal framework is ready to be submitted, mayors are wary of Tax Reform, and the CAE will review a request to summon Roberto Campos Neto
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Mar 2023

The Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, said that nothing is missing from the new fiscal framework. The final step is to submit it to President Lula so that he can have the final say. Yesterday, at the National Front of Mayors event, there was some resistance from the mayors regarding Tax Refor...

China’s new financial centralization
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 14 Mar 2023

China has made the most significant changes to its economic governing in several decades. It has placed power for the regulation and oversight of the financial system in the hands of a governing group in the Party. This could impact the country’s growth and financial stability. Specifically: ...

Russia agrees to continue BSGI
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Mar 2023

On March 13 Russia agreed with the United Nations to allow the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI) to be extended. However, this is only for 60 days. It had been anticipated that the BSGI would be extended for rather long. BSGI is vital for food security in the Global South. Bangladesh, Egypt, Leba...

Economics: Core inflation remains high in February
MEXICO · Report · 13 Mar 2023

On Thursday, March 10, inflation figures were released showing that the index increased 7.6% at an annual rate. This represented a reduction with respect to the previous month (7.91%) and to what the market expected, but only due to the non-core component, since the core index continues to regist...

Navigating with Instruments in a Dense Fog
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Forecast · 13 Mar 2023

When the government’s economic team is specialized in sending noise instead of signals generated by a good diagnosis, good results cannot be expected. For 2023, we expect GDP growth of 1%, a major deceleration with regard to the result in 2022, of 2.9%. This expansion will only be attained due to...

Constitutional illiterates
ECUADOR · Report · 13 Mar 2023

An ad hoc commission formed and led mainly by legislators from the UNES and the Social Christian Party investigated a case of corruption in the electricity sector. Although the case has roots in the government of Rafael Correa, this commission decided to focus on the current presidential period, ...

Politics: Border violence, blame for illicit fentanyl trade stokes crisis in US-Mexican security collaboration
MEXICO · Report · 13 Mar 2023

Mexican-US relations have become strained in the past few weeks. While there have been disagreements in the recent past over immigration, economic issues, Washington’s perceived intervention in Latin America, and human rights issues, recent developments in security and anti-drug efforts have put ...

The PT and fuel and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Mar 2023

Fernando Haddad presents the new fiscal framework to President Lula. The Lower House decides leadership for standing committees. In the Senate, the Economic Affairs Committee votes on the request to invite the Central Bank president to speak on interest rates. The Federal Supreme Court may conclu...

Kazakhstan macro: inflation to remain elevated in 2023, leaving limited room for base rate cuts
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 13 Mar 2023

Kazakhstan’s National Bank recently released its updated macroeconomic forecast and it expects the country’s economy can expand within the 3.5% to 4.5% range in 2023. The regulator expects the same rates for GDP growth in 2024 and 2025, quoting it as an equilibrium growth trajectory for Kazakhsta...

External fundamentals appear less shekel supportive 
ISRAEL · Report · 13 Mar 2023

1. External fundamentals appear less shekel supportive as the goods/services surplus continues to decline. 2. The shekel will continue to react more to global equity movements and the domestic uncertainty regarding the judicial measures. 3. Tax revenues continue to decline and are likely to...

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