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Wagner chief killed in plane crash
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Aug 2023

On August 25 the head of Wagner Private Military company was killed when his plane crashed in Russia. Russian authorities say the bodies of all 10 on board were found. Prigozhin and other Wagner commanders were listed on the manifest. Putin announced that Prigozhin is dead, and that Prigozhin had...

GULF WEEKLY: BRICS invites Saudi & UAE, UAE sees strong demand for T-sukuk, IMF concludes Kuwait Article IV
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 25 Aug 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * BRICS invited Saudi Arabia and the UAE to join (but not Kuwait and Bahrain, which also applied). * The UAE and Saudi Arabia sent Ukraine congratulations on its independence day. * Iran’s foreign minister said MBS has acce...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Armenia revises GDP data, invites rethink of growth drivers
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 25 Aug 2023

Armenia is the first country in the CCA region that has reported a full set of detailed GDP data for the second quarter of the year. 2Q23 GDP grew by a robust 9.1 percent YoY, down from the 12.1 percent YoY print in 1Q23 and weaker than the 10.9 percent YoY number implied by the monthly economic ...

Deputy Santana submitted his report on the Desenrola program yesterday, the bill on payroll tax exemptions may be put to a vote next week, and the Senate should vote on the CARF bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Aug 2023

Yesterday, Deputy Alencar Santana (PT-SP) submitted his report on the Desenrola program. As anticipated, he proposes a limit for debts, so that the interest and fees charged do not exceed the total amount of the debt. In the House, President Arthur Lira said that the bill on payroll tax exemption...

Kazakhstan Macro: Weaker Tenge Required
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 24 Aug 2023 · 1 response

The Bureau of National Statistics reported that the Kazakh economy continued to grow in 7M23, albeit unevenly across sectors. This growth was accompanied by decelerating inflation, which monthly rate varied from 0.5% to 0.6% since May and a similar m-o-m rate is expected in August. Hence the y-o-...

The South African government reiterates its stance of non-alignment committing to work with all countries for global peace and development as it concludes the 15th BRICS Summit
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 24 Aug 2023

Against the backdrop of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, there has been increased interest in the 15th BRICS summit that was held in South Africa this week. The possibility of Russia’s President Putin attending had of course resulted in increased risk aversion towards South Africa before it was clari...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 24 Aug 2023

Aug 11 Turkmenistan: The authorities want to clarify a number of issues on the gas alliance of Russia, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan Agriculture Ministry: Kazakhstan has started growing bananas on an industrial scale, and the first harvest is expected in six months Energy Ministry: Daily oil product...

The MPC acts bold, what’s next?
TURKEY · Report · 24 Aug 2023 · 1 response

In an encouraging and surprising move, the MPC/CBRT raised the policy rate by a markedly more than expected 750 bps to 25%, versus a consensus expectation of 250 bps (see chart). That the decision came at the very first MPC meeting of the newly appointed deputies, also send the right signals. The...

The House approved the MP on minimum wage, the CAE approved the bill on the tie-breaking vote in the CARF, and the government should send a proposal to Congress today on the carbon credit market
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Aug 2023

The House approved the provisional measure (MP) that changes the individual tax table and increases the minimum wage. The measure will be put to a vote in the Senate today. Yesterday, the Economic Affairs Committee (CAE) of the Senate approved the bill that deals with the tie-breaking vote of the...

Russian airlines hugely evading sanctions
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Aug 2023

On August 23 Reuters published an article saying that customs data proves that Russia has bought over USD 1.2 billion of Western made spare parts. Reuters said that the true value of the imported spare parts is higher than the proven shipment because it excludes shipments to companies in Russia t...

The summer lull is almost over
TURKEY · Report · 23 Aug 2023

With 7 months left until crucial municipal elections, the opposition is comatose, but AKP is still not guaranteed to reclaim big cities from CHP, thanks to rising economic frustration and the genuine popularity of some CHP candidates. President Erdogan’s larger dilemmas are all abroad. The eve...

Putin sacks aerospace forces chief
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Aug 2023

On August 23 Russian state media reported that Sergei Surovikin was dismissed. Surovkin was the head of the space forces. Surovikin disappeared after the June 2023 mutiny by the Wagner Group. The Kremlin said in late June 2023 that Surovikin was ''resting''. There has been no word of him since th...

The House voted on the fiscal framework yesterday, the House will vote on the minimum wage MP today, and the Senate CAE will vote on the CARF bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Aug 2023

Yesterday, the House concluded voting on the fiscal framework. As anticipated, the deputies maintained the constitutional fund of the federal district and Fundeb exceptions in the text. Spending on science and technology will have to comply with the spending limit. Today, the House will vote on a...

The Sultan woos the Sheikhs: Turkey’s improved GCC relations bolster external financing
TURKEY · Report · 22 Aug 2023 · 1 response

This report is a joint publication co-authored by Atilla Yesilada and our GCC analyst, Justin Alexander. * Turkey received a $5bn Saudi deposit in March and possibly undisclosed support from UAE and/or Qatar that averted a currency crisis ahead of the May elections and helped keep Erdogan in p...

The Sultan woos the Sheikhs: Turkey’s improved GCC relations bolster external financing
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 22 Aug 2023

This report is a joint publication co-authored by Justin Alexander and our Turkey political analyst, Atilla Yesilada. * Turkey received a $5bn Saudi deposit in March and possibly undisclosed support from UAE and/or Qatar that averted a currency crisis ahead of the May elections and helped keep...

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