GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

Indonesia’s Constitutional Court made a ruling on April 22, 2024, rejecting the challenges from the losing presidential candidates for a re-run of the presidential election. With that ruling, the Election Committee made its final decision on the presidential election result, with Prabowo Subianto...

Padilha meets with Senate leaders to discuss the joint session of Congress on vetoes, the CCJ should vote on the bill that resumes the mandatory insurance for vehicles, and the Senate should vote on the Perse bill

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Apr 2024

The Minister of Institutional Relations, Alexandre Padilha, meets with Senate leaders to negotiate vetoes that should be analyzed in a joint session of Congress next week. There was going to be a session of Congress last week to analyze vetoes, but it was postponed due to a lack of consensus. The...

GDP somewhat stronger than expected in Q1, real wage growth very high in February

HUNGARY · In Brief · 30 Apr 2024

GDP grew by 0.8% qoq, 1.7% yoy on seasonally and calendar-adjusted basis in Q1, according to KSH's first estimate. Both figures represent material strengthening from Q4's upwardly revised 0% qoq, 0.5% yoy growth data. However, all this was only a moderate surprise: analysts, including us, expecte...

Corruption crackdown in Russia

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 30 Apr 2024

On April 29 the head of Nizhny Novgorod was arrested in Russian-occupied Ukraine on suspicion of stealing public funds. Oleg Lavrichev is head of his city council and a member of United Russia, the party that dominates the country. Lavrichev was supposed to supervise the distribution of food and ...

Counting on Luck

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 29 Apr 2024

With the so-called New Fiscal Framework, the government hoped to gain credibility regarding the performance of public accounts through a promise to generate a dynamic of expenditures versus revenues consistent with stabilization of the federal debt. However, the fragility of its bases was evident...

Politics: Latest poll numbers show Gálvez failing to expand support even as the incumbent camp weakens

MEXICO · Report · 29 Apr 2024

The latest GEA-ISA survey of registered voters contained some encouraging news for the opposition coalition. Support for Morena dropped by as much as 8 points between March and April. President López Obrador’s approval rating has fallen 12 points since September to one of his lowest readings in o...

The holiday this week reduces the pace of activities in Brasília, the Senate may vote on the Perse bill, and the CCJ may vote on the bill that resumes the mandatory insurance for land vehicles

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Apr 2024

The federal holiday on Wednesday, May 1, reduces the pace of activities in Brasília, but there are still important events on the agenda. The payroll tax relief issue continues to resonate. This week, the Senate may vote on a bill that reformulates incentives for the events sector (PL nº 1,026/202...

Election Monitor III: National elections – growing uncertainty amid a rising desire for change

SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 29 Apr 2024

South Africa celebrated the 30th anniversary of the new dispensation on Saturday, April 27, 2024. The mood of the nation could hardly be more different than it was on April 27, 1994, when Nelson Mandela declared the triumph of the ANC’s decades of struggle against apartheid. The predominant major...

OFZ: Russian debt puzzle still not assembled

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 29 Apr 2024

The yields in the Russian debt market continue to grow. Last week’s tightening of the CBR's signalling regarding the further trajectory of the key rate may even stimulate this trend. On one hand, even the existing yields look very attractive to long-term institutional investors. On the other hand...

Playing For Time

TURKEY · Report · 28 Apr 2024

Growth was likely positive in Q1, and should finish the year at around 3% with risks tilted to the upside, assuming a flat second half or that a major contraction will be avoided. We see growth slowing further in 2025, however. • Inflation, broadly in line with the consensus, should peak at ju...

S&P affirmed Hungary's BBB-/Stable sovereign debt rating

HUNGARY · In Brief · 28 Apr 2024

This happened on Friday, April 26, the first preset review date for any of the top three rating agencies, as regards their sovereign ratings for Hungary. Hungary has a split rating (see chart), S&P keeping the government's debt rating in the lowest investment-grade category since January 2023, wh...

Russia and Ukraine exchange children

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Apr 2024

On April 24 the Russian Children's Rights Commissioner said that Russia would return 29 children to Ukraine in exchange for Ukraine giving Russia back 19 children. Maria Lvova Belova, who announced the deal, was indicted by the International Criminal Court for child abduction in 2023. Qatar brok...

José Raúl Mulino could run next week…the Supreme Court hinted yesterday

PANAMA · In Brief · 26 Apr 2024

On April 25, just 10 days before the elections, Supreme Court Justice Olmedo Arrocha, who is handling the case of the unconstitutionality lawsuit against the Electoral Tribunal (TE) decision that allowed José Raúl Mulino to run as a presidential candidate, issued a public statement. In this state...

NBU cuts prime rate to 13.5% following approval of US support package

UKRAINE · In Brief · 26 Apr 2024

The NBU Board reduced the prime rate by 1.0 ppt to 13.5%, effective April 26. This decision was facilitated by a steady slowdown in consumer inflation (+0.5% m/m or +3.2% y/y in March), a $9.3 billion foreign currency inflow in March, and the recently approved $61 billion aid package from the US....

Kazakhstan macro: the budget still lacks tax revenue as the tenge remains strong

KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 26 Apr 2024

Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Finance published the budgetary statistics for 1Q24, and it appears that the general trends are the same as in 2023—the tax revenue flow remains well behind the plan, while transfers to the republican budget from the National Fund are well ahead of it. The latter factor i...