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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Prigozhin agrees to stop his march and move to Belarus
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Jun 2023

On June 24 the head of Wagner ended his ''march for justice'' and said he would leave Russia in return for charges against him being dropped. He said he made the deal to avoid bloodshed. The President of Belarus brokered the deal. Wagner was said by many media to have caused the most serious chal...

Fitch Ratings affirmed its BBB/Negative rating for Hungary on Friday
HUNGARY · In Brief · 25 Jun 2023

Even though Fitch changed its BBB rating outlook from Stable to Negative in January, mainly on deficiencies of structural policy, and it said a few weeks ago that it still saw downgrading risk for the country, no downgrade took place this time. As suggested by its report, Fitch Ratings was appare...

Groundhog day economics
TURKEY · Forecast · 25 Jun 2023 · 1 response

In this quarter’s installment of our forecast report, produced in an environment of “radical uncertainty”, both domestically and abroad, we once again deviate from the traditional format and share some tentative thoughts and numbers on how the macro might play out until the local elections of Mar...

Israel Weekly Macro Wrap Up 25.6.23
ISRAEL · In Brief · 25 Jun 2023

Politics: Although the political environment remains uncertain, the worst-case scenario of replacing the committee to appoint Supreme Court judges with a majority of coalition representatives no longer appears to be on the table. Last week, two new members were appointed to the committee from the...

Arrest warrant for Yevgeny Prigozhin
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Jun 2023

On June 24 Yevgeny Prigozhin the warrant was for allegedly inciting an armed rebellion. Military vehicles have been put onto the streets of Moscow and other cities. The guard has been doubled at strategic locations. A 2 am on June 24 Prigozhin said that Wagner Group had returned from Ukraine to R...

Last minute Kirchnerist backflip: UP tweeted that Massa runs as the only presidential candidate
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 24 Jun 2023

In a surprising backflip, the ruling coalition “Unión por la Patria” (UP) announced yesterday night (June 23) through its official Twitter account, that Sergio Massa is going to be the only presidential candidate, accompanied by Augustín Rossi, current Chief of Cabinet, and close ally of Presiden...

Conference on rebuilding Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Jun 2023

On June 21 the Ukraine Recovery Conference took place in London. The private sector is being looked to in order to rebuild the country after the war. The construction bill was estimated at USD 411 billion in March 2023. Rishi Sunak hosted the conference. Zelensky hosted by videolink. The UK will ...

Russia says Ukraine has hit a Crimean Bridge
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Jun 2023

On June 23 Russia said Ukraine said British-supplied missiles. The parallel bridges were both damaged. Russia claimed that the United Kingdom ordered the attack. Russia posted footage of a hole in the bridge. The Russian-appointed Governor of Kherson said the bridge would be repaired soon. Chonga...

A light at the end of the tunnel of a poor international reputation: the possible exit from the FATF gray list
PANAMA · In Brief · 23 Jun 2023

The Ministry of Economy and Finance announced today that the FATF-GAFI has approved an on-site visit to showcase the country's progress in implementing FATF recommendations. The country has achieved a "largely compliant" rating in all actions of the agreed plan with the FATF to address deficienci...

CPI-disinflation accelerated in May
HUNGARY · Report · 23 Jun 2023

The outlook on energy prices remains positive, despite a substantial upward correction in recent weeks. Save for the case of a major disruption of the supply flow, energy import costs are still bound to fall by a lot this year. Recent data on gas reserves and energy conservation is impressive. Op...

GULF WEEKLY: Iran-GCC diplomatic blitz, Kuwait forms new cabinet, Qatar-China LNG deal, Hajj pilgrim numbers double
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 23 Jun 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The UAE and Qatar reopened their embassies as the Gulf détente continues. * Iran’s foreign minister visited UAE, Qatar, Oman and Kuwait and hosted the Saudi minister in Tehran. * Gulf states, particularly Saudi Arabia, ro...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 23 Jun 2023

The CBR decided to keep the key rate unchanged (at 7.5%) earlier in Jun but sent a hawkish signal to the market. The latter lifted the OFZ yield curve higher. The 10-year papers are now traded above 11%. The last time this level was in the spring of 2022. Many investors see a threat of potential ...

The rapporteur for Tax Reform submitted his report on the text, next week will be slow in Congress, and the TSE should adjudicate the case against former President Bolsonaro next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Jun 2023

Yesterday, the rapporteur of the Tax Reform proposal, Aguinaldo Ribeiro (PP-PB), submitted his report. He said that Arthur Lira wants to vote on the proposal by July 7. The text did not change much in relation to what was already presented. We will have a quieter week in Congress next week. There...

Former BIS / US Fed executive and Economics Professor named BSP governor
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 23 Jun 2023

We expect financial markets here and abroad to welcome the appointment of Eli Remolona as BSP Governor. Currently a member of the Monetary Board, he will assume the governorship on July 3. As we wrote in our latest Forecast report, Mr. Remolona is preeminently qualified for the job having spent 1...

Slide Presentation - Colombia: Muddy waters
COLOMBIA · Report · 23 Jun 2023 · 1 response

Get insight into Colombia's fiscal policy, economic activity and political environment with a presentation from Juan Carlos Echeverry and Andres Escobar.

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