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Politics: Third-way option for 2024 emerges as tensions mount between AMLO and the Judiciary
MEXICO · Report · 13 Feb 2023

Efforts to build a new opposition force ahead of the 2024 elections took a new step on January 30 when a broad array of citizens and current and former politicians presented a platform that offers an alternative to both supporters of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s Fourth Transformation (...

This will be a quiet week due to next week’s Carnival holiday, the PT directorate will meet today to discuss interest rates, and Lula will launch several social programs this week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Feb 2023

This is the week before Carnival and, therefore, a relatively quiet one in Congress. The president of the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), will meet with party leaders to discuss the distribution of positions in the Permanent Committees of the House. Today there will be a meeting of the National Direc...

Russia is closing in on Bakhmut
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 13 Feb 2023

On February 12 the head of Wagner said that his fighters had taken a village a few kilometers from the center of Bakhmut. Ukraine has not denied this. That appears to be confirmatory silence. Bakhmut seems to have more a political rather than a strategic goal. There is rivalry between Wagner and ...

Stagflation ain’t over yet
CHILE · Report · 13 Feb 2023 · 2 responses

The Monthly Economic Activity Index (IMACEC) showed relatively favorable results in December. But given the adverse outlook for 2023, negative 12-month variations will continue in coming months. At the sectorial level, it is worth differentiating between cases where there were additional advances...

Probability of a 0.5% rate hike next week has increased
ISRAEL · Report · 13 Feb 2023

1. Shekel weakening continues on the back of uncertainty regarding the implications of the planned judicial reforms. 2. If this trend continues this week, a 0.5% rate hike next week will become increasingly likely. 3. We expect a fiscal deficit of 3.7% GDP this year, following a surplus las...

Probability of a 0.5% rate hike next week has increased
ISRAEL · In Brief · 12 Feb 2023

Uncertainty regarding the judicial reforms continue Last week, the shekel weakened by 3.2% against the dollar and by 1.2% against the Euro. The shekel continued to weaken in the FX option trading yesterday. Several international investment banks and economists have expressed concern regarding the...

The day the earth stood still
TURKEY · Report · 12 Feb 2023 · 1 response

The politics section starts with an assessment of human and material damage of the earthquake, which could reach staggering dimensions. It is sad that the state started the initial effort to survey the damage only Saturday. On Sunday, a renowned seismologist made the dire prediction that up to 70...

South Africa’s electricity supply shortages continue to cripple the economy while external headwinds intensify
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 10 Feb 2023

• Bonds: Similar to other emerging market assets, South African bonds were victim to the selloff underpinned by negative shocks to global financial markets largely driven by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, elevated and persistent inflation rates together with faster monetary policy tightening, slow...

GULF WEEKLY: Oil rallies on Russian cuts, PIF green bond, Saudi PMI rebounds
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 10 Feb 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil has rallied strongly to $86 on factors including Russian supply cuts. * The Saudi PMI rebounded strongly to 58.2 but Qatar’s sank further, to 45.7. * Saudi Arabia may issue bonds in euro and other currencies to refina...

The Central bank keeps its key rate unchanged
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 10 Feb 2023

The Central bank announced that the BoD decided to keep the key rate at 7.5%, having quoted that the economic situation currently looks better, and pro-inflationary risks remain relatively high. The CBR estimated that the Russian GDP was down by 2.5% in 2022, which encouraged the regulator to upg...

CPI-inflation above expectation in January, but analysts still believe this may be the cyclical peak
HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Feb 2023

January CPI-inflation came out this morning at 2.3% mom, 25.7% yoy, the latter up from 24.5% yoy in December. Core inflation was 1.8% mom, 25.4% yoy, meaning that the year-on-year core rate fell below the headline rate for the first time since last February. Non-fuel inflation was 24.6% yoy, more...

President Lula and allies criticized the BC over the interest rate, the president of the BC will likely go to Congress after Carnival to provide clarification, and President Lula will meet with US Senator Bernie Sanders and President Biden today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Feb 2023

This week was marked by pressure and criticism from President Lula, members of the government, and allies in Congress against the Central Bank (BC) over the interest rate level. Roberto Campos Neto is expected to go to the Senate Economic Affairs Committee after Carnival to provide clarification....

What we can learn from the Adani story
INDIA · Report · 10 Feb 2023

When investment faltered from 2011 onwards, some felt that there was a "deals rather than rules" solution to the problem. Perhaps the state could foster a small set of private "national champion" firms that would play a leadership role in investment. Through these firms, there could be a new rena...

Zelensky visited Brussels
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Feb 2023

On February 9 he addressed the European Parliament. He was cheered to the rafters and wore his trademark green military fatigues. He pleaded with them to speed up deliveries of long-range weapons. Zelensky warned the EU that Russia is intensifying its offensive and within weeks will start an all ...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 09 Feb 2023

Aeroflot: The Russian company will resume its regular flights to Kazakhstan in February Jan 30 QazaqGaz: The company and Italian Eni discussed possible prospects for cooperation in f the construction of the Kashagan gas processing plant Jan 31 National bank: The current account surplus for FY22 r...

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