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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Ukrainian offensive makes ground but Russia claims to capture US-made vehicles
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Jun 2023

On June 13 Ukraine said it was moving forward in Zaporizhzhia. There is evidence that Ukraine has made headway but it is modest. There is no sign of a breakthrough against very well-entrenched Russians. On June 13 Russia showed footage of its troops on Bradley Armored Fighting Vehicles and German...

Budgetary performance seemingly improved in May
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 13 Jun 2023

Kazakhstan’s Deputy PM and Finance Minister, Mr. Erulan Zhamaubaev, reported at a government meeting today that the country’s state budget (i.e., the republican and local budgets combined) was in decent shape as in 5M23 it accumulated “over KZT8.0 trln of revenues” which appeared about 3% over th...

The STF decided that PIS/Cofins taxes will be levied on all business activities, the fiscal framework is expected to be approved in the Senate without changes, and the CAE may vote on the bill that extends the payroll tax exemption
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Jun 2023

Yesterday, the government had an important victory in the Supreme Federal Court (STF). The STF decided that the PIS/Cofins taxes should be levied on all business activity because social security is financed by billing and companies' revenue. The Minister of the Institutional Relations Secretariat...

Political and economic scenarios for 2023-2026
PERU · Forecast · 13 Jun 2023

This report focuses on our 2023‒2026 forecasts. In the first section, we discuss possible political scenarios. Our base case is that President Dina Boluarte remains in office until July 2026. However, we suggest that Boluarte faces two significant threats: accusations of human rights violations a...

Deleveraging in China and the Japan trap
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 13 Jun 2023

China’s economy continued to slow in April and May, with only auto sales showing strength due to low base effects in 2022. The government remains steadfast on property deleveraging although there are new rumors of further stimulus, but no firm announcement. The key issue for China’s economy is ho...

Worst Fears Confirmed
ECUADOR · In Brief · 13 Jun 2023

Official candidates will be announced by the Electoral Council next August 6th, and the electoral race will start on August 8th, including a presidential debate that will take place on August 13th. Of the eight announced presidential and vice-presidential candidates, only Daniel Noboa and Veronic...

Economics: Continuing strength in hiring and wages may encounter obstacles later this year
MEXICO · Report · 13 Jun 2023

Various labor indicators as of the first quarter, as well as other measures through April, indicate that job growth remains high, a result consistent with the extent of the economic growth registered in the first quarter of 2023. Total employment expanded 4.3% in the first quarter of 2023 based o...

Armenian Central Bank Starts Rate-Cutting Cycle
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 13 Jun 2023

The Central Bank of Armenia (CBA) cut the refinancing rate by 25bpts to 10.50 percent on Jun 13th. This is the first cut since Sep 2020 and now sets monetary policy on an easing path that we anticipate will bring the refinancing rate to 8.50-9.00 percent by year-end. The Central Bank of Armenia r...

Ukraine retakes villages
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 13 Jun 2023

On June 12 Kyiv said it has made progress in its counter-offensive but admits that Russian resistance is firm. Ukraine has shown footage of the Ukrainian flag being hoisted in villages it has retaken. These are in the Zaporizhzhia Region. Ukraine has also advanced in Donetsk. France has said that...

Politics: What the June 4 election results mean for each party and the 2024 elections
MEXICO · Report · 12 Jun 2023

Despite having held on to Coahuila, perhaps the biggest loser on June 4 was the PRI, which will no longer govern the State of Mexico for the first time in 96 years. There is no getting around public perceptions of the party as having become practically irrelevant nationally, having seen its erstw...

Behavior of the Yield Curve Reflects Implicit Inflation Rates
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 12 Jun 2023

In recent days, the nominal rates at the long end of the yield curve (DI curve) have fallen. That movement predominantly reflects the decline of the implicit inflation rates, with a smaller reduction of real interest rates. Before the approval of the fiscal framework, the real interest rates on t...

Questions about Tax Reform and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Jun 2023

Negotiations continue on the fiscal framework in the Senate. In the Economic Affairs Committee (CAE), Senators may vote on a bill to extend payroll tax exemptions. The CPMI on the January 8 attacks votes on requests for testimony. The confirmation hearing of Cristiano Zanin, appointed to the Supr...

Economy Minister Nagy is proposing to consider raising the medium-term inflation target
HUNGARY · In Brief · 12 Jun 2023

Economy Minister Nagy, formerly MNB vice governor, published an article in today's daily newspaper Magyar Nemzet, raising the idea to set a higher medium-term inflation target than the MNB's current 3%, with a 2-4% tolerance band. Explaining his idea, he referred to upcoming structural changes on...

Iceland closes its Moscow embassy and Romania expels Russia diplomats
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Jun 2023

On June 10 Russia said it will react to Iceland's suspending the operation of its embassy in Russia. The Foreign Ministry said Iceland's act was anti-Russian. Iceland has announced that it will limit the activities of the Russian Embassy in Iceland. The two states still have diplomatic relations....

The STF should adjudicate the case on the PIS/Cofins taxes, the STF should also adjudicate the case on the national nursing salary floor, and negotiations on the fiscal framework continue
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Jun 2023

Today, the Supreme Federal Court (STF) should complete the judgment on the levy of PIS and Cofins taxes on financial income. Justice Dias Toffoli disagreed with the rapporteur, Ricardo Lewandowski. On Friday, the STF will also adjudicate in the virtual plenary the case that deals with the nursing...

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