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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Economics: April manufacturing data may be just a one-off bounce with further weakness to come
MEXICO · Report · 20 Jun 2023

The industrial activity figures as of April of this year reflect a high increase in manufacturing after registering positive rates but with a deceleration trend in the first months of the year. Manufacturing activity registered an increase of 2.1% with respect to the previous month and 3.2% compa...

Fernando Haddad increases in prestige and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Jun 2023

The Senate is expected to vote on the fiscal framework with edits. Senators are also analyzing Cristiano Zanin's appointment to the STF. The report on Tax Reform may be submitted. The TSE will adjudicate the case that could render former President Jair Bolsonaro ineligible for future elections. I...

The CAE will hold a public hearing on the fiscal framework, and the CAE may vote on the payroll tax exemption bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Jun 2023

The Economic Affairs Committee (CAE) of the Senate will hold a public hearing today on the new fiscal framework. The Senate will likely conclude the vote on the text this week. Also today, the Economic Affairs Committee may vote on the bill that deals with payroll tax exemptions for 17 sectors of...

Neutral Interest Rate and Fiscal Policy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Jun 2023

When all the empirical evidence indicates that inflation expectations are anchored to the target, the Central Bank will begin a monetary easing cycle. Our objective in this report is not to examine when this cycle will start, but rather what the terminal interest rate will likely be. According to...

Kazakhstan macro: mixed 5M23 results amid puzzling statistics
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 20 Jun 2023

Given that in recent years, the country’s economy has faced several shocks including the pandemic, protests in early 2022, and Russia’s special military operation, economic trends in Kazakhstan have turned very uneven, being influenced by various base effects. One can also add disputes with Russi...

Slide presentation - Caucasus and Central Asia: Boons from the Russia-Ukraine conflict
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 20 Jun 2023

Get insight into the the macroeconomic and geopolitical impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the Caucasus and Central Asia region with the presentation from our webinar, "Caucasus and Central Asia: Boons from the Russia-Ukraine conflict".

Low CPI and strong shekel likely to support rate stability
ISRAEL · Report · 20 Jun 2023

1. Inflation surprised on the downside in May, but service prices continue to accelerate. 2. The labor market remained tight in May, with unemployment holding steady at 3.6%. 3. Macro fundamentals remain shekel supportive although recently political uncertainty has been the main driver. ...

Russian war deaths over 25,000 according to study
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Jun 2023

On June 16 the BBC and a Russian media group called "Mediazona" published a report. They based it on media reports, social messaging posts, graves and names on memorials.  The 25,000 figure includes those fighting for Wagner Group. Some Wagner fighters are non-Russians. In September 2022 Russia s...

Sterilisation rate expected to fall by 100 bps to 16% tomorrow
HUNGARY · In Brief · 19 Jun 2023

The regular monthly rate-setting meeting of the Monetary Council is scheduled for tomorrow. This time around, the Council is also set to discuss the Q2 inflation report. Analysts unanimously expect another 100 bps reduction of the O/N deposit rate, which is the effective sterilisation rate. For D...

Labor market remains tight
ISRAEL · In Brief · 19 Jun 2023

The labor market remained tight in May and at full employment. Unemployment remained stable at 3.6% (seasonally adjusted data) while the rate of participation in the labor market improved slightly to 64.2% from 64.1%. More people are looking for work than previously and finding employment (theref...

Time to get down to business
TURKEY · Report · 18 Jun 2023

After a week spent puking his lungs out in violent spasms of pneumonia, the politics author returns to his job, predicting President Erdogan will approve Sweden’s accession to NATO before or during the Vilnius Summit. He may need some encouraging words from Biden though, re. the F-16 order, to ta...

Low CPI and strong shekel likely to support rate stability
ISRAEL · In Brief · 18 Jun 2023

Inflation in May surprises on the downside Core inflation slows to 4.9% y/y from 5.3% in April. Much of the surprise was due to lower-than-expected seasonal impact. Prices of goods have moderated, while prices of services (including rental prices) have accelerated. We expect inflation to reach 2....

Ramaphosa in Moscow
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Jun 2023

On June 17 the President of South Africa met Putin. President Ramaphosa was accompanied by the presidents of the Comoros Islands, Zambia and Senegal. Ramaphosa said that the war should end as soon as possible. Ramaphosa's 10-point peace proposal was said by Moscow to be difficult to implement. Ta...

Tight security and narrow domestic focus at SPIEF
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Jun 2023

On June 14 the St Petersburg International Forum (SPIEF) opened. The forum was instituted in 1998. The 2023 edition was the least impressive yet. Gone are the days when major world leaders attended. It was known as Russia's Davos. Putin addressed the forum. Mobile phones were blocked before his s...

African leaders visit Kyiv
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Jun 2023

On June 16 African leaders arrived as a part of a mission to negotiate peace. They are due to travel to Russia. The delegates are the presidents of South Africa, Senegal, Zambia and the Comoros Islands. When they arrived in Kyiv a barrage of missiles hit the city. Ukraine condemned the missile at...

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